Guardians vs. Tigers Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Sept. 17
The Detroit Tigers look to inch closer to an AL Central title when they host the Cleveland Guardians, and I break down this divisional matchup with my Guardians vs. Tigers prediction. First pitch from Comerica Park in Detroit is set for 6:40 p.m. ET (FS1).
The Tigers are the -150 betting favorite, but given how well Cleveland has been playing, I am making a play on the total with my MLB picks instead of backing a side.
While doubling down on the Over, I fade Tigers righty Jack Flaherty, who has struggled against divisional opponents since the start of August.
⚾ Guardians vs. Tigers prediction
MLB expert picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Guardians (+130 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Run line pick: Guardians +1.5 (-164 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 8 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📝 Guardians vs. Tigers preview & best bet
Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.
⬆️ Over 8 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Cleveland is red-hot, having won 10 of its last 11 games, which currently has it 2.5 games out of a wild-card spot. And despite winning half of the eight head-to-head matchups with Detroit, I am bucking another trend and backing the Over with my Guardians vs. Tigers best bet.
Five of Flaherty’s last seven starts have come against divisional opponents. None of those were quality starts as he has recorded 17 or fewer outs each time, and he has pitched to an 8.63 ERA and a 3:1 K:BB ratio in that span.
This line is low as the Guardians have cashed the Under in six of their last seven games.
In addition, Flaherty has done well to hold current Guardians hitters to a .179/.233/.315 slash line in 84 combined at-bats. But the total should also account for the fact that Flaherty has pitched to a 5.08 ERA and allowed a .730 opponents’ OPS when pitching on six-plus days of rest.
FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering an O/U of 8.0 runs with each side of the total juiced to -110 (the Over is juiced as high as -115 elsewhere, carrying a 53.49% implied probability). At the -110 odds, a $10 winning wager would net $9.09 in profits.
💰 Best Guardians vs. Tigers player prop bet
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⬆️ Jack Flaherty Over 1.5 earned runs (-159) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
After ace Tarik Skubal left his last start with tightness in his side, Detroit should let Flaherty work out of his recent funk, in case he needs to take on a more prominent role in the playoffs.
One optimistic sign for Flaherty going forward, but not in this matchup, is his splits when he pitches against teams in position for the postseason and those that are not.
In 39 innings against current postseason teams, Flaherty has pitched to a 1.85 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and a 49:11 K:BB ratio. Against non-current playoff teams, Flaherty’s ERA balloons to 6.85 over 65 ⅔ innings, with a 1.52 WHIP and 67:23 K:BB ratio.
Flaherty allowed three earned runs over 6 ⅔ innings in his only start against Cleveland on May 22, and he has gone over this projected total in four of his previous seven starts.
I don’t mind paying up for the -159 juice and 61.39% implied probability for this confident five-star wager at DraftKings, as a $10 winning wager would still net $6.29 in profits.
📊 Guardians vs. Tigers odds: Sept. 17
MLB odds update live in real time.
📈 Guardians vs. Tigers betting odds analysis
After opening as the -150 moneyline betting favorite, the Tigers have remained at that number at most of the best sports betting apps, with the line going as high as -154. The total of 8.0 runs differs at BetMGM, which has the Over at 8.5 juiced to -115 and the Under to -105.
🔢 Guardians vs. Tigers stats
Season stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.
| Guardians (79-71) | Statistic (per game) | Tigers (85-66) |
|---|---|---|
| 3.89 | Runs | 4.86 |
| 7.35 | Hits | 8.39 |
| .225 | AVG | .249 |
| .370 | SLG | .420 |
| .666 | OPS | .738 |
| 3.74 | ERA | 3.85 |
| 8.30 | K/9 | 8.43 |
| 3.34 | BB/9 | 2.95 |
| 1.05 | HR/9 | 1.16 |
🚑 Guardians vs. Tigers injuries
📺 Guardians vs. Tigers game info
- When: Wednesday, Sept. 17
- First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where: Comerica Park (Detroit)
- How to watch: FS1
❓ Guardians vs. Tigers FAQs
Who is favored to win Guardians vs. Tigers?
The Tigers are the -150 betting favorite to beat the Guardians at home on Wednesday.
What is the run line for Guardians vs. Tigers?
Detroit’s -1.5 odds range from +140 to +146, while Cleveland’s +1.5 odds are at -178 on the high end of the market.
What is the Over/Under for Guardians vs. Tigers?
The O/U is at 8.0 at most best sports betting apps, and it’s juiced to -115 for the Over and -105 for the Under.
What are the best bets for Guardians vs. Tigers?
My Guardians vs. Tigers best bets back the Over of 8.0 runs (-110) and for Jack Flaherty to go Over 1.5 earned runs (-159).
When is the Guardians vs. Tigers game?
The Guardians vs. Tigers first pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET, airing on FS1.
How do baseball odds work?
When betting on MLB, the run line shows how many runs the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by two or more runs to cover the run line, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by one run to cover the run line.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total of runs will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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