Guardians vs. Red Sox Prediction Today: MLB Best Bets, Expert Picks & Odds
Boston is on a roll recently, and my Guardians vs. Red Sox prediction expects the hosts to stay hot in tonight's series finale. First pitch from Fenway Park in Boston is slated for 6:45 p.m. ET (CLEG, NESN).
My MLB picks back Boston as a -145 betting favorite. However, I expect Red Sox catcher Carlos Narvaez to struggle with his matchup at the plate, which is why my player prop pick fades him this evening.
⚾ Guardians vs. Red Sox expert picks & predictions
MLB expert picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Red Sox (-146 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Run line pick: Red -1.5 (+146 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 9 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
📝 Guardians vs. Red Sox preview & best bet
Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.
🧦 Red Sox to win (-146) ⭐⭐⭐
The Red Sox won the first two games of the series against Cleveland, and they're 7-3 in the team's last 10 outings.
Boston will face Guardians left-hander Joey Cantillo in the series finale, a matchup that should favor the Red Sox. Cantillo's fastball averages a shade over 91 mph, and he's been struggling with walks and getting hitters to chase pitches out of the strike zone this season.
The Red Sox have been among the league’s best teams against left-handed pitching in 2025, ranking seventh in home runs, fourth in batting average, and fifth in OPS. Cantillo excels at missing bats with a 10.85 K/9 over 66 1/3 innings. However, the Red Sox are league average in strikeout rate against lefties and sixth in hard-hit rate.
FanDuel, which is one of the best sports betting sites, offers the Red Sox on the moneyline at -146 odds, which would lead to a $6.85 profit on a $10 bet. Those odds come with an implied probability of 59.35%. That number might be on the higher side than I’d normally like, but I'm still happy to take it while backing a sizzling team at home against a fading Guardians squad.
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💰 Best Guardians vs. Red Sox player prop bet
Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
🥶 Carlos Narváez Under 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Narvaez is slashing just .176/.229/.343 with four home runs and 12 RBIs over his last 30 games. The Red Sox catcher has posted a below-average strikeout rate of 24.5%, and he whiffs nearly 28% of the time. He’s also been overperforming his expected stats against breaking pitches, which could be an issue against Cantillo’s changeup and curveball, as both offerings are holding opposing batters to a sub-.200 batting average this season.
The backstop is off to a hot start in September, but he struggled while registering just nine hits over 52 at-bats in August. There’s decent value in fading him.
A $10 bet on Narváez’s Under here translates to a profit of $9.09 through DraftKings, one of our best sports betting apps. The -110 odds lead to an implied probability of 52.38%.
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📊 Guardians vs. Red Sox odds: Sept. 3
MLB odds update live in real time.
🧐 Guardians vs. Red Sox betting insights
The latest Guardians vs. Red Sox betting insights are from BetMGM as of Wednesday afternoon.
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guardians | 35% (+1.5, -160) | 17% (+125) | 71% (Over 9, -115) |
| Red Sox | 65% (-1.5, +135) | 83% (-150) | 29% (Under 9, -105) |
📈 Guardians vs. Red Sox betting odds analysis
Boston opened as the -146 favorite while the team attempts to sweep the Guardians in the series finale. The line has moved in some spots, with a few of the books offering the best sportsbook promos listing the Red Sox as a -140 or -138 favorite.
🔢 Guardians vs. Red Sox stats
Season stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.
| Guardians (68-69) | Statistic (per game) | Red Sox (78-62) |
| 3.87 | Runs | 4.96 |
| 7.30 | Hits | 8.75 |
| .223 | AVG | .255 |
| .368 | SLG | .428 |
| .662 | OPS | .753 |
| 3.99 | ERA | 3.71 |
| 8.42 | K/9 | 8.33 |
| 3.51 | BB/9 | 3.29 |
| 1.12 | HR/9 | 1.03 |
🚑 Guardians vs. Red Sox injuries
📺 Guardians vs. Red Sox game info
- When: Wednesday, Sept. 3
- First pitch: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
- How to watch: NESN, CLEG
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❓ Guardians vs. Red Sox FAQs
Who is favored to win Guardians vs. Red Sox ?
The Red Sox are -146 favorites to defeat the Guardians at home on Wednesday.
What is the run line for Guardians vs. Red Sox?
Boston is a -1.5 run line favorite against Cleveland in Wednesday’s matchup.
What is the Over/Under for Guardians vs. Red Sox?
The total for Wednesday’s game between the Guardians and Red Sox is 9.5.
What are the best bets for Guardians vs. Red Sox?
My best bets for Wednesday’s Guardians vs. Red Sox game are Boston on the moneyline (-146) and Carlos Narvaez Under 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI (-110).
When is the Guardians vs. Red Sox game?
First pitch is set for 6:45 p.m. ET on Wednesday at Fenway Park.
How do baseball odds work?
When betting on MLB, the run line shows how many runs the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by two or more runs to cover the run line, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by one run to cover the run line.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total of runs will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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