⚾ Giants vs. Orioles Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Saturday, April 11

The San Francisco Giants look to extend their season-high three-game winning streak when facing the Baltimore Orioles as they enter the middle game of a three-game interleague series. The starting pitching matchup features veterans Logan Webb and Chris Bassitt, with first pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore set for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). The Giants are a -120 betting favorite.

My Giants vs. Orioles prediction expects positive regression from each hurler who has struggled at times this season, while a pitcher’s duel breaks out. That should mean good things for one of their player props, while I also add my top home run pick to my MLB picks on a player who has a big sample size of 20 career at-bats against tonight’s opposing starting pitcher.

⚾ Giants vs. Orioles picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 2.67 units

🏆 Who will win Giants vs. Orioles?

San Francisco is 2-0 as a road favorite this year, while Baltimore entered the series as the only American League team with a .500 or better record and a negative run differential. I expect the Giants to win a low-scoring affair with their ace on the mound.

Score prediction: Giants 4, Orioles 2

💰 Giants vs. Orioles prediction & best bet

Under 7.5 (-115)

Chris Bassitt’s numbers against current Giants hitters look concerning after allowing a .301/.347/.475 slash line in 73 combined at-bats. But after removing Rafael Devers’ numbers from that equation (more on him with our HR prop), the other sluggers are a combined 12-for-53 (.226) with just one extra-base hit, zero home runs, and no RBIs.

Meanwhile, Logan Webb’s numbers don’t jump off the page, but he has still made quality starts in two of three appearances. I expect him to limit an Orioles offense that is due for regression after ranking in the top-9 in BABIP, wOBA, and wRC+.

🔥 Best Giants vs. Orioles player prop bet

Logan Webb Over 5.5 strikeouts (-120)

For as much good as the Orioles offense has done this season, they entered the series striking out at the seventh-highest rate (25.7%). That number increased to 26.2% just against right-handed pitching, while Baltimore hitters fell out of the top-10 in on-base percentage, walk rate, and batting average in that split.

There are no concerns about Webb’s ability to pitch deep into the game, as he has averaged 94 pitches per start, second on the team only to Robbie Ray. That follows three straight seasons of him leading the league in innings pitched.

Webb’s 7.5 K/9 rate is on pace to be a career-low, but he is coming off a season where he led the league with 224 strikeouts for the first time in his career, and this should be his most successful start to this point in that metric.

💣 Giants vs. Orioles home run prediction

Rafael Devers to hit a home run (+388)

Logan Webb simply doesn’t allow home runs with frequency, as his HR/9 rate has not exceeded 0.8 in any year of his career except his rookie year in 2019. Given that he hasn’t allowed one yet in 18 innings, bettors would be wise to identify Giants hitters for their home run prop wagers.

There is arguably no batter facing an opposing pitcher on today’s slate of games with more career success than Rafael Devers against Bassitt. Devers has three home runs and six extra-base hits in 20 at-bats against the righty, while producing a 1.600 OPS. He should be happy to be at Camden Yards, where his 13 career home runs are his second-most at any away ballpark.

🚀 Giants vs. Orioles same-game parlay

A big outing from Logan Webb would do wonders to help the first two legs of this same-game parlay cash. Normally I prefer to swap my home run prop out for a different player prop wager to give these parlays a better chance of cashing. And while a Devers home run contradicts the Under, I am hoping that the damage he does comes with little to no runners on base.

Despite sacrificing some juice on the first two legs of this parlay, DraftKings offers the best overall value for this SGP because of its +388 home run odds that trump the next best price on the market (+360).

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Giants vs. Orioles: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

Given how much I love Logan Webb's chances of pitching a gem, I would not put anyone off backing San Francisco's -120 moneyline odds. But the Giants entered the series with the worst run differential in the National League, even after consecutive shutout wins to end their last series, and that tilted my thinking towards backing the Under.  

As usual, my game pick and player prop wagers are backed with a full unit of my bankroll, while I went less aggressive on Devers' home run prop with just 0.25 units.

📊 Live Giants vs. Orioles odds

The Giants are nearly aligned across the market as -120 moneyline favorites, with only FanDuel differing from the other best sports betting sites at -124. With an early 2/1 betting split at DraftKings as San Francisco has its ace on the mound, I wouldn't be surprised to see its odds end up more towards -130 before first pitch.

The total is much more evenly split (53/47 in favor of the Over), with the market again in agreement with a total of 7.5. The juice is as high as -120 on the Under, carrying a 54.55% implied probability.

📈 Giants vs. Orioles betting trends

🚑 Giants vs. Orioles injuries

📺 How to watch Giants vs. Orioles

• Date: Saturday, April 11
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Oriole Park at Camden Yards (Baltimore)
• TV: FOX
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Giants starter: Logan Webb (1-1, 5.00 ERA)
• Orioles starter: Chris Bassitt (0-2, 14.21 ERA)