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Dominican Republic vs. Venezuela Odds, Picks & Predictions: DR Opens 2023 WBC With a Win

Jon Metler

Last Updated: March 11, 2023 2:48 PM EST • 2 min 51 sec read.

Manny Machado of the San Diego Padres celebrates as we look at the top Dominican Republic vs. Venezuela picks
Manny Machado of the San Diego Padres celebrates after hitting a solo home run during the fifth inning of a baseball game against the Minnesota Twins at Petco Park on July 29, 2022 in San Diego, California. Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images via AFP.

The Dominican Republic sends reigning NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara to the hill against the Venezuelans on Saturday, as the two clubs battle in the Pool D bout to open their World Baseball Classic play. Read on for our top Dominican Republic-Venezuela pick based on the best odds from our best sportsbooks.

Venezuela will counter with veteran lefty Martin Perez. He’s coming off a career-best MLB campaign in 2022, but this still projects as a daunting matchup against a loaded Dominican Republic lineup with hitters capable of teeing off on southpaws.

Juan Soto, Rafel Devers, Julio Rodriguez, and Jeremy Pena headline the Dominican youth movement, and veterans Manny Machado, Nelson Cruz, and Robinson Cano check out as fitting veteran complements. This bullpen is also sneaky deep with proven, high-leverage arms.

Make no mistake, the Venezuela roster is chock full of talent, too. Ronald Acuna Jr. alone is a human-highlight reel and Jose Altuve, Eugenio Suarez, and Salvador Perez add ample experience alongside youngsters Andres Gimenez and Luis Arraez.

Here is our best Dominican Republic vs. Venezuela WBC pick (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Dominican Republic vs. Venezuela pick: WBC 2023

Dominican Republic -2.5 (+105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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The sportsbooks have been slow to post World Baseball Classic betting lines, and I believe they're unsure how to handicap these games, since there are numerous unknowns. 

Perfect!

It means we can catch some sportsbooks with an incorrect price or line, and that's exactly what I'm doing here. Saturday's victim is DraftKings, who has by far and away the best price on the Dominican Republic to win by more than 2.5 runs at +105.

At bet365, the Dominican Republic is trading at -135 to win by 2.5 runs over Venezuela, whereas at Pinnacle it's trading at -108. Neither of these sportsbooks, which I trust more than DraftKings in their handicapping, have the Dominican Republic trading at a plus price. 

For a no-sweat bankroll builder, you can technically bet the Dominican Republic at +105 at DraftKings and Venezuela at +105 at bet365 and walk away with a profit. It's one of the many benefits of using multiple sportsbooks.

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Dominican Republic vs. Venezuela best odds

DraftKings -2.5 (+105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKingsCaesarsBetMGM
Dominican Republic -2.5Dominican Republic -2.5Dominican Republic -2.5
+105+100-110

With a price of +105, DraftKings offers the best odds for the Dominican Republic to defeat Venezuela by more than 2.5 runs. Although the difference between BetMGM at -110 and DraftKings at +105 may appear insignificant, it represents a difference of 3.6% in implied probability.

If BetMGM's pricing at -110 is accurate, which I think it is, grabbing DraftKings' rogue price of +105 would result in a positive expected value of 7%. 

Dominican Republic vs. Venezuela odds analysis

On the money line, the Dominican Republic opened as a -275 favorite at BetMGM, and there's no consensus price, as the odds were just posted and are in their early stages. 

As with the money line and run line, the total is experiencing a similar trend. We're seeing a variety of juice and different lines, with Caesars trading the total at 8.5, while BetMGM and DraftKings are trading the total at 9. 

As the odds spend more time on the market, we should see all the sportsbooks reach a consensus on the odds. The sportsbooks are currently in a price discovery mode, so we plan to take advantage of that at DraftKings. 

Dominican Republic vs. Venezuela game info

  • Date: Saturday, March 11, 7 p.m. ET
  • TV: FS1
  • Location: loanDepot park, Miami
  • Weather: Indoors

Dominican Republic-Venezuela pick made 03/11/2023 at 1:15 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Jon Metler
Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.