Braves vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks Tonight: MLB Best Bets for Aug. 28
There is a significant advantage for the host Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday night in their series opener against the Atlanta Braves, and that's how I lead my Braves vs. Phillies prediction. Game time is 6:45 p.m. ET (MLBN) at Citizens Bank Park.
Philadelphia is a -190 favorite and giving the ball to Aaron Nola against Atlanta’s Cal Quantrill. My MLB picks provide the best angle for this lopsided matchup, which includes a plus-money player prop on Nola.
Meanwhile, our Gabe Henderson is targeting both Trea Turner and Ronald Acuna Jr. in his best home run predictions today.
⚾ Braves vs. Phillies expert picks & predictions
MLB expert picks made Thursday; odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Phillies (-187 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
- Run line pick: Phillies -1.5 (+105 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Under 9.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
📝 Braves vs. Phillies preview & best bet
Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.
🔔 Phillies -1.5 (+105) ⭐⭐⭐
I don’t see any reason to lay such a steep moneyline value with Philadelphia. The plus-money price on the run line in a high-scoring matchup offers much better value, as a $10 bet nets a $10.50 profit.
Quantrill (4-11, 5.51 ERA) is capable of giving up more than enough runs for this wager. He’s surrendered four-plus runs in eight different starts this year, including a seven-piece against Philadelphia on April 19. Quantrill has a 5.55 ERA in five career starts against the Phillies.
Nola recently returned from a three-month absence for Philadelphia. In his second game back, he held the Washington Nationals to two earned runs across six innings. I’ll back the better pitcher and the better team on Thursday.
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💰 Best Braves vs. Phillies player prop bet
Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
🔥 Aaron Nola Over 0.5 wins (+125) ⭐⭐⭐
Here’s another plus-money wager that is banking on a comfortable victory for the Phillies. As one of our best sports betting sites, DraftKings’ +125 odds provide a $12.50 profit on a $10 bet.
I think the market is underrating Nola in this matchup due to his 2-7 record with a 6.52 ERA on the year. But he’s only made 11 starts and pitched 58 innings this season. Those numbers can change quickly over a larger sample size, so I’ll put more faith in his career marks (106-86, 3.80 ERA in 279 starts).
I’m betting Nola’s performance last Saturday was a sign that the Phillies are getting their talented hurler for the stretch run.
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📊 Braves vs. Phillies odds: Aug. 28
MLB odds update live in real time.
📈 Braves vs. Phillies betting odds analysis
The Phillies began as -200 favorites, which is where the line remains at most of the best sports betting apps. As of Thursday morning, 59% of all wagers are on the Phillies to win. I’m guessing the line will continue to move in their favor as more parlays are created for Thursday’s MLB slate.
👀 Braves vs. Phillies betting insights
- The Phillies opened as -200 favorites, but had dropped to as low as -186 at BetRivers as of Thursday at 4:10 p.m.
- BetMGM lists the amount of wagers on Philadelphia at 63% on the moneyline. The same percentage of 63% are on the over 9.5.
🔢 Braves vs. Phillies stats
Season stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.
| Braves (61-72) | Statistic (per game) | Phillies (76-57) |
|---|---|---|
| 4.47 | Runs | 4.7 |
| 8.3 | Hits | 8.7 |
| .244 | AVG | .256 |
| .396 | SLG | .420 |
| .717 | OPS | .746 |
| 4.33 | ERA | 3.85 |
| 8.7 | K/9 | 9.3 |
| 3.4 | BB/9 | 1.7 |
| 1.2 | HR/9 | 1.1 |
🚑 Braves vs. Phillies injuries
📺 Braves vs. Phillies game info
- When: Thursday, Aug. 28
- First pitch: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, Pa.)
- How to watch: MLBN
💡 Expert MLB predictions today
- MLB home run predictions today
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- Diamondbacks vs. Brewers prediction
- Braves vs. Phillies prediction
❓ Braves vs. Phillies FAQs
Who is favored to win Braves vs. Phillies?
The Phillies are -190 favorites to defeat the Braves at home on Thursday.
What is the run line for Braves vs. Phillies?
Philadelphia is a -1.5 run line favorite against Atlanta in the series opener.
What is the Over/Under for Braves vs. Phillies?
The total for Thursday’s game between the Braves and Phillies is 9.5.
What are the best bets for Braves vs. Phillies?
The best bets for this matchup are the Phillies -1.5 (+105) and Aaron Nola to record a win (+125) on Thursday.
When is the Braves vs. Phillies game?
First pitch is set for 6:45 p.m. ET on Thursday at Citizens Bank Park.
How do baseball odds work?
When betting on MLB, the run line shows how many runs the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by two or more runs to cover the run line, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by one run to cover the run line.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total of runs will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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