⚾ Bounce-Back MLB Candidates to Watch This Season 2026: Buying Low on Star Players
Though I generally believe stats normalize across an MLB season, sometimes they don't, and you need to wait until the next year to target players to rebound from their struggles. That's exactly what I'm doing today, with six MLB bounce-back candidates to watch this season.
We have three hitters and three pitchers who suffered down years in 2025, but after digging through their peripheral stats and looking at their projections for this season, I'm ready to buy in on them bouncing back.
💪 6 bounce-back MLB players to watch this season
So, what am I looking for in terms of a "bounce-back" season? Well, first, the player had to have a down year by their standards. I tried to avoid players such as Yordan Alvarez who were just injured for the majority of the year.
After noting all the players who fit that criteria, I looked through each of their projections to determine who was most likely to bounce back this season. Here are the six MLB players who I believe are the most likely to have true bounce-back seasons in 2026.
Mookie Betts - SS, Dodgers
I asked in my look at the World Series odds and value picks if it's possible that Mookie Betts is just washed. And it is. His batted-ball data has never been the most impressive - outside of an outlier 2023 campaign - and maybe Father Time has caught up with him.
But also, Betts dealt with a brutal preseason illness that caused him to lose more than 15 lbs last year, and it's also entirely possible that he just never fully recovered from that. If Betts isn't finished, he's going to be an absolute steal in fantasy baseball, and could win you some money in MLB futures markets, too.
Here are the key reasons why Betts could bounce back in 2026:
🪃 Mookie Betts key bounce-back factors
- Had much stronger second half, with a .279/.342/.442 slash line compared to .244/.315/.381 in the first half
- Leading projection models have him as a 4.5 WAR player
- Still hits in the heart of the best lineup in baseball, projected to slot into the three-hole behind Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Tucker
- Despite general struggles in 2025, still showed elite approach at the plate with a 98th percentile strikeout rate
- Was significantly better at shortstop last season vs. 2024, so defensive value is still very much there even if the bat declines
Bet to make: Mookie Betts 90+ RBIs (+230 via DraftKings)
Dylan Cease - SP, Blue Jays
Dylan Cease goes to his third team in the last four seasons, as the Toronto Blue Jays signed him to a seven-year, $210-million contract this offseason. Cease is coming off a season in which he logged a 4.55 ERA over 168 innings with the San Diego Padres, and walks once again plagued him. However, his stuff is still nasty, and there are a lot of reasons Jays fans should be excited about their new ace.
Here are the key reasons why Cease could bounce back in 2026:
🪃 Dylan Cease key bounce-back factors
- Ignore the 4.55 ERA, Cease had a 3.45 xERA, 3.56 FIP, and 3.58 SIERA
- He had an elite 15.6% swinging-strike rate and a 95th percentile whiff rate
- Cease projects to be a top starter this year, with an ERA hovering around 3.60 and more than 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings
- The Dodgers, Giants, and Diamondbacks punished him last year, so escaping the NL West could be huge
- It's silly, but he alternates between very good and not good each year, and this would be his good year based on that
Bet to make: Dylan Cease to win AL Cy Young (+3500 via DraftKings)
Adley Rutschman - C, Orioles
And now we come to the curious case of Adley Rutschman, who rapidly declined from one of the best players in baseball to pretty not good. This wouldn't just be a bounce-back from last year's injury-derailed season (which I said I was avoiding), but also from his relatively underwhelming 2024 campaign. Rutschman accrued 5.6 fWAR in just 113 games in his rookie season, and he was right around that mark in 154 games in Year 2. Surely, the talent has to win out for the 28-year-old Baltimore Orioles catcher.
Here are the key reasons why Rutschman could bounce back in 2026:
🪃 Adley Rutschman key bounce-back factors
- Still had a very good plate approach despite struggles in 2025, with an 83rd percentile strikeout rate and 80th percentile walk rate
- Could see more time at DH this season with rookie Samuel Basallo also having the ability to catch; would keep Rutschman fresh
- Despite accruing only 3.9 fWAR over the last two years, projection models still believe he'll be worth at least 3.5 wins this year
- Is projected to hit fourth in Orioles' lineup, behind Gunnar Henderson and newly acquired Pete Alonso
- Camden Yards played super hitter-friendly last season, so if Rutschman can stay healthy in 2026, he can take advantage of that
Bet to make: Adley Rutschman 80+ RBIs (+200 via DraftKings)
Sonny Gray - SP, Red Sox
Much like Cease, Sonny Gray owned an ugly 4.28 ERA last season, but he had elite peripherals and is still arguably one of the top 20 starting pitchers in baseball entering the 2026 season. Now in a new home on a playoff contender rather than the basement-dwelling St. Louis Cardinals, Gray will serve as either the No. 2 or 3 starter for the Boston Red Sox, who suddenly roster one of the best rotations in the majors.
Here are the key reasons why Gray could bounce back in 2026:
🪃 Sonny Gray key bounce-back factors
- Owned a 3.87 xERA, 3.39 FIP, 3.07 xFIP, 3.29 SIERA, and 30.8% CSW in 2025
- Managed a career low in walks per nine and still struck out more than 10 per nine
- Cardinals were first in MLB in outs above average (fielding stat), but they were 19th in defensive runs saved with five
- Meanwhile, Red Sox had 30 DRS last season and were right behind St. Louis in overall fielding run value and defensive rating
- No pressure on Gray to pitch like an ace with Garrett Crochet leading Boston's rotation
Bet to make: Sonny Gray 200+ strikeouts (+330 via DraftKings)
Austin Riley - 3B, Braves
The 2025 season was an unmitigated disaster for the entire Atlanta Braves organization, and Austin Riley wasn't safe from the catastrophe. He missed extended time with injuries for the second straight year, and he wasn't very good when he was healthy. Riley hit just 16 homers in 102 games, but there are still plenty of reasons to be optimistic about both him and the Braves.
Here are the key reasons why Riley could bounce back in 2026:
🪃 Austin Riley key bounce-back factors
- Riley still had very good batted-ball data in 2025: 91st percentile average exit velocity, 92nd percentile barrel rate, 93rd percentile bat speed
- Strikeout increase could be result of Riley forcing the issue when the Braves were dealing with so many injuries
- Had 17.7 xHR compared to 16 home runs, and he had an absurd 75% no-doubter percentage
- Most leading projection models believe he'll bounce back with nearly 30 homers
Bet to make: Austin Riley 35+ home runs (+225 via DraftKings)
George Kirby - SP, Mariners
The trio of Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby highlighted my five MLB futures bets to make before spring training Opening Day, as I think they're all serious AL Cy Young contenders. Kirby is coming off a pretty brutal year by his lofty standards, so you know I consider him a massive bounce-back candidate.
Here are the key reasons why Kirby could bounce back in 2026:
🪃 George Kirby key bounce-back factors
- Much like Cease and Gray, Kirby owned elite peripherals
- 3.88 xERA, 3.37 FIP, 3.25 xFIP, 3.39 SIERA
- He had the best strikeout rate of his career and the highest CSW% of it
- Projects as one of the elite arms in baseball this year; Steamer has him finishing with a 3.52 ERA and THEBAT has him seventh by pitcher fWAR
Bet to make: George Kirby to win AL Cy Young (+4000 via DraftKings)
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