Blue Jays vs. Mariners Player Props: MLB Picks & Best Bets for ALCS Game 3
Seattle gets an opportunity to earn a commanding 3-0 series lead, and we're breaking down the matchup with our Blue Jays vs. Mariners player props for ALCS Game 3.
Our MLB picks believe Shane Bieber will keep being generous with home runs, and especially to Julio Rodriguez, who's getting +525 betting odds to hit a dinger. Elsewhere, George Kirby could struggle to rack up strikeouts when he takes the mound to begin the critical contest from T-Mobile Park in Seattle at 8:08 p.m. ET. The Mariners enter as the -130 favorite.
⚾ Blue Jays vs. Mariners player props: ALCS Game 3
MLB player prop bets for Game 3; odds subject to change.
- George Kirby Under 4.5 strikeouts (+106 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Cal Raleigh Over 1.5 total bases (+112 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Julio Rodriguez to hit a home run (+525 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
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💰 Best player prop bets for Blue Jays vs. Mariners Game 3
Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬇️ George Kirby Under 4.5 strikeouts (+106) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Blue Jays seem to strike out almost never, recording the second-fewest regular-season strikeouts. The Jays boast a lineup filled with hitters who make consistent contact, resulting in an MLB-leading .265 average.
They've become even firmer in that approach throughout the playoffs. New York Yankees starting pitchers recorded a total of just seven strikeouts across four games against Toronto during the ALDS, and Mariners starters have tallied five throughout nine combined innings thus far.
Next up is George Kirby, who went below this 4.5 strikeout line 10 times during the regular season. He has three pitches he leans on 25% of the time or higher: a four-seamer, slider, and sinker. The fastball is effective, but right-handers are posting a .292 batting average with a .479 slugging percentage against the sinker, according to Baseball Savant.
If Kirby struggles to send the Jays back to the dugout with a bat in hand, these +106 betting odds from DraftKings would lead to a $10.60 profit, with an implied probability of 48.54%. Pounce on those plus-money odds, as some of the other best sports betting sites are sitting around -115 or -120.
⬆️ Cal Raleigh Over 1.5 total bases (+112) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Cal Raleigh will surely bat from the left side against the right-handed Shane Bieber. However, going to the right side could serve him well, as the inconsistent Bieber has given up a .935 OPS to righties this season.
It all might not matter much, though, as Raleigh posted a .909 regular-season OPS against righties from the left side. And being a homer-prone righty as Bieber has become this season (more on that below) certainly doesn't bode well when facing Big Dumper, who deposited a league-leading 60 home runs into the outfield seats, setting a record for catchers and switch-hitters.
Bieber gave up a homer in all but one of his seven regular-season appearances, including two apiece in the hurler's final two outings. And when he departs, Raleigh will get to face a Blue Jays bullpen again that's allowed a postseason-worst six homers thus far.
A $10 bet at these +112 odds from DraftKings would result in a $11.20 payout if Raleigh accounts for at least two bases, with an implied probability of 47.17%.
🚀 Best home run prediction for Blue Jays vs. Mariners Game 3
Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.
🔱 Julio Rodriguez to hit a home run (+525) ⭐⭐⭐
It's unclear which version of Bieber will show up tonight, or if he'll ever be a truly dominant ace again. But despite his wild inconsistencies, here's what we know for sure: He gives up bombs.
There have been so many loud detonations, even when the good or great version of Bieber is on the mound. Call it ineffectiveness or a layer of rust that still needs to be shaken off at the major-league level after a long layoff. It doesn't matter to us for this bet as part of our Blue Jays vs. Mariners player props, or to the smoldering-hot Julio Rodriguez.
Including the playoffs, Bieber has logged 43 innings for Toronto since being a trade-deadline acquisition and finishing his rehab from Tommy John surgery. He's allowed eight homers during just that stretch, and the veteran ended the regular season with a 1.8 HR/9. That's significantly higher than his two pre-injury seasons (0.8 in 2022 and 1.0 in 2023).
A starter giving up a career-worst hard-hit rate of 48.2% will need to contend with Rodriguez, who hit 22 homers off righties during the season with an average exit velocity that sat in the 87th percentile. He's also still riding high after a second half in which Rodriguez posted a .900 OPS.
A $10 bet using these +525 odds from BetMGM would lead to a $52.50 payout, with an implied probability of 16%. Sprint to BetMGM for this wager, as some of the other best sports betting apps are around +470.
📊 Blue Jays vs. Mariners odds today
Latest MLB odds updated live in real time.
📺 How to watch Blue Jays vs. Mariners: Game 3
- Date: Wednesday, Oct. 15
- First pitch: 8:08 p.m. ET
- Where: T-Mobile Park (Seattle)
- TV: FOX
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