⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Sunday, March 29
Will the balls fly out of the park on the first Sunday of the 2026 MLB season, or will pitching rule the day? My best home run predictions today certainly expect some fireworks from a group of powerful left-handed hitters.
All four of my picks play this afternoon, but fear not, because my home run parlay includes a player from tonight's Guardians vs. Mariners game, so you have the chance to be invested well into the evening.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds March 29
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Kurtz home run (+450 via BetMGM) | 0.33u β 1.82u | My bet to lead MLB in home runs this year |
| Juan Soto home run (+500 via bet365) | 0.20u β 1.2u | One of the preseason favorites to lead MLB in home runs |
| Wilyer Abreu home run (+470 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 1.14u | Crushed a game-tying home run yesterday |
| Christian Yelich home run (+625 via BetMGM) | 0.20u β 1.45u | Look for another bloodbath in Milwaukee |
Total wagered: 0.93 units | Max profit: 4.68 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Nick Kurtz to hit a home run (+450)
I bet on Nick Kurtz to go yard in each of the first two games this series, and he's yet to come through with that big hit. In yesterday's game against the Blue Jays, Kurtz walked three times in five plate appearances, which isn't exactly ideal when you need a home run.
However, his projection is still very good today, and we're getting better than 45% +EV on this bet through these +450 odds. I'd play this to a price as short as +345.
📡 SBR Edge: Athletics have promising pitching matchup
I also like Brent Rooker (+350 via BetMGM) and Tyler Soderstrom (+575) in this game, as Blue Jays pitcher Eric Lauer has had home run issues his entire career. Since 2021, he's allowed the seventh-most home runs per nine innings among all starters.
π₯ More home run picks today
Juan Soto (+500)
Juan Soto had the hardest-hit ball in yesterday's game between the Pirates and Mets after failing to make significant contact up until that point. That should hopefully awaken one of the preseason favorites to lead MLB in home runs.
Soto has a solid home run projection for today's game, and we're getting roughly 40% +EV on this bet through these +500 odds. I'd play this to a price as short as +410, so be sure to act quickly, because odds for star players tend to shorten in a hurry on Sundays.
Christian Yelich (+625)
Christian Yelich has done everything but hit a home run so far. He's 5-for-9 with three runs scored, two RBIs, and a stolen base. I expect him to add to his home run tally today in what should be another slaughter of the Chicago White Sox.
The Brewers have scored 20 runs through the first two games of this series, and today they face Anthony Kay, who's making his first start in the majors since 2023 after spending two seasons in Japan.
We're getting a bit of a boost on these odds thanks to the lefty-lefty matchup, but the projections still back Yelich to have a big day. Kay may not last long in this game, which means Yelich could get a couple of plate appearances against Chicago's shaky bullpen.
π Best home run parlay picks today
Instead of parlaying all of our previous picks, I'm instead combining the three players with the highest home run projections today. On their own, Pete Alonso and Cal Raleigh don't provide enough value, but I'm looking for probability with this parlay rather than sheer expected value. As is always the case with these, though, limit your wager size.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Pete Alonso (+235)
- Nick Kurtz (+345)
- Cal Raleigh (+270)
Best odds: +5415 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 5.52u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-20 | -8.04 units β | -58.1% β |
| Home run picks | 0-10 | -3.33 units β | -100% β |
| Other batter props | 1-2 | -0.56 units β | -24.1% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
Generally, I bet 0.33 units on all of my main home run props. I'm doing that with Kurtz, but since Soto, Yelich, and Wilyer Abreu have projections just below my preferred threshold, I limited my wagers on them to just 0.2 units. Each of those bets is still showing upward of 30% +EV, though, so I have no issue if you want to bet up to 0.33 units.
As is always the case with the parlay, I'm really limiting my wager size there to 0.08 to 0.1 units.
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