⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Saturday, March 28
It's been a rough start for my MLB bets, but it's only the fourth day of the season and we have to trust the process. That's exactly what I'm doing with my best home run predictions today, as I bet on two players also featured in yesterday's article, because we're seeing a similar edge on their odds to go yard Saturday.
Along with that pair of picks, I'm backing one of baseball's most talented players who finally stayed relatively healthy and put together a monster campaign in 2025.
My trio of home run bets come from games set to be played in two of the top-three most homer-friendly ballparks last season, so let's hope the math maths and the balls take flight.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds March 28
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Kurtz home run (+375 via bet365) | 0.33u β 1.57u | My bet to lead MLB in home runs this year |
| Tyler Soderstrom home run (+550 via BetMGM) | 0.33u β 2.15u | Looking to build on a very impressive first full MLB season |
| Byron Buxton home run (+500 via BetMGM) | 0.33u β 1.98u | Finally stayed healthy and put it all together in 2025 |
Total wagered: 1 units | Max profit: 4.7 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Nick Kurtz to hit a home run (+375)
Nick Kurtz was one of my preseason MLB home run leader picks, and I backed him last night in the first game of this series between the Athletics and Blue Jays. I'm going back to the well this afternoon for many of the same reasons.
Rogers Centre was extremely homer-friendly last season, and Kurtz hit home runs for fun. Sounds like a match made in heaven, right? Well, the data agrees, as Kurtz once again has the second-highest home run projection of any player today. We're getting nearly 40% +EV on this bet, and I'd play it to odds as short as +310.
📡 SBR Edge: Looking for bats to come alive in Game 2
Kevin Gausman and Luis Severino did well to silence the bats in the first game of this series, but the projections support Kurtz to hit something hard today even against Dylan Cease.
π₯ More home run picks today
Tyler Soderstrom (+550)
Along with Kurtz, I bet on Tyler Soderstrom to go yard in yesterday's game, and, as you know, that didn't happen. However, he once again has a very good projection today, and the best sports betting sites are pricing him at extremely long odds to do so. Let's take advantage of that.
Listen, I know Cease is a really good pitcher, and he generally hasn't had much of a home run problem during his career. However, he's always called pitcher-friendly ballparks home, whether he was with the Chicago White Sox or San Diego Padres. This will be a drastic change for Cease, and despite looking positively useless last night, this Athletics lineup is quite dangerous.
We're getting nearly 70% +EV on this bet, and I'd play it to odds as short as +365 based on Soderstrom's home run projection.
Byron Buxton (+500)
Baseball fans have been asking for years what would happen if Byron Buxton could just stay healthy for the majority of an MLB season. Well, we got our answer last year when Buxton launched 35 homers, stole 24 bases, and accrued 5.0 fWAR in just 126 games. This is a legitimate AL MVP candidate if he could play upward of 145 contests.
Buxton and the Minnesota Twins take on the Orioles in Baltimore today, and Camden Yards was the second-most homer-friendly ballpark in baseball last season.
Based on Buxton's home run projection, we're getting nearly 65% +EV on this bet, and I'd play it to odds as short as +340. That's once again a huge gap.
π Best home run parlay picks today
There's nothing too complicated about this parlay. We're combining our three home run props for the day and limiting our wager due to the extremely long odds. I personally bet $10 on it, which is closer to 0.08 units for me, but I see nothing wrong with going as big as 0.1. As you can see, you'd still profit 12 units if it hits.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Nick Kurtz (+332)
- Tyler Soderstrom (+487)
- Byron Buxton (+423)
Best odds: +11929 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 12.03u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1-16 | -8.97 units β | -83.5% β |
| Home run picks | 0-7 | -2.33 units β | -100% β |
| Other batter props | 1-2 | -0.56 units β | -24.1% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I wager 0.33 units on all of my home run props, and I have no issue betting all three because of that. Even if we were to go 0-3 today, we'd lose only one unit. And if we hit only one, we profit for the day.
As I mentioned, I bet $10 on the parlay, and I wouldn't go any higher than 0.1 units on it.
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