MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds (Friday, Aug. 7)
My home run picks have been trending downward lately, but they're still profitable on the season. My MLB home run predictions today look to bounce back with Shohei Ohtani, Junior Caminero, and Manny Machado on a loaded Friday night slate.
My MLB home run picks target these hitters because they have favorable pitching matchups today.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Aug. 7
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani to homer (+285 via FanDuel) | 0.7u β 2u | Ohtani has a .683 xSLG vs. fastballs, which Kelly throws 49% of the time vs. LHH. |
| Junior Caminero to homer (+299 via DraftKings) | 0.67u β 2u | Gilbert throws 45% fastballs to RHH, and Caminero is slugging .668 vs. fastballs. |
| Manny Machado to homer (+364 via DraftKings) | 0.55u β 2u | Machado has a .567 xSLG vs. fastballs, which Blanco throws 46% of the time vs. RHH. |
Total wagered: 1.92 units | Max profit: 6 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Shohei Ohtani (+285)
It's hard not to bet Ohtani against Merrill Kelly today. The Dodgers' two-way star has a .683 expected slugging percentage against fastballs, which Kelly throws 49% of the time to left-handed hitters.
Ohtani cashed as a home run hitter in his most recent game (Wednesday at Wrigley Field) and has homered four times over his last eight games. If Kelly sticks to his usual plan of throwing fastballs to left-handed hitters, we should cash this bet pretty early in the game.
Ohtani to homer (+285) at FanDuel is the best line available among the top sports betting sites.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Ohtani vs. Kelly
Ohtani is 2-for-5 against Kelly in his career, with a home run and a double.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Junior Caminero (+299)
Caminero at +299 is too good to pass up. Not only does he lead MLB in bat speed (79.8 mph), but he also has a favorable matchup today in Seattle.
Logan Gilbert's favorite pitch to throw to right-handed hitters is his fastball, which he uses 45% of the time, and Caminero is slugging .668 against fastballs.
The Rays slugger has homered four times over his last six games and is 2-for-5 against Gilbert in his career with a double, so making hard contact shouldn't be an issue. Caminero to homer (+299) at DraftKings is the best line available among the top sports betting apps.
- Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Apple TV
Home run pick: Manny Machado (+364)
Machado may be batting just .210 on the season, but his power hasn't gone anywhere, as he leads the Padres with 23 home runs.
He has a .567 expected slugging percentage against fastballs, and lucky for him, Ronel Blanco throws a four-seam fastball 46% of the time to right-handed hitters, his most-used pitch.
Machado has yet to homer in August through six games, but he has hit six or more in each of the past three months, so he'll get hot again soon. Machado to homer (+364) at DraftKings is the best line available among the top MLB betting sites.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🤑 More MLB picks for Friday
Looking for more? Dive into Mike Spector's Braves vs. Yankees prediction and his Orioles vs. Rangers prediction.
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Shohei Ohtani to homer
- Junior Caminero to homer
- Manny Machado to homer
Best odds: +6258 via DraftKings
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-25-4 | -0.46 units β | -1.4% β |
| Player props | 6-17-3 | +0.5 units β | 2.8% β |
| Game props | 2-2 | -0.78 units β | -9.5% β |
| Moneylines | 1-1-1 | +0.11 units β | 1.7% β |
| Parlays | 0-5 | -0.3 units β | -100% β |
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