Best NRFI Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Picks for Friday, Sept. 25
Three MLB playoff spots are still up for grabs as we enter the final weekend of the regular season, and some of those scenarios have impacted my best NRFI bets today.
With my top NRFI picks, I am backing on a return to form from a southpaw who has been an NL Cy Young Award contender all year. I also fade the Milwaukee Brewers pitching staff with my only YRFI wager among my four plays, as I cannot trust anyone on their staff outside of Jacob Misiorowski or Logan Henderson at the moment. I've gone 9-3 over the last three days after three consecutive 3-1 NRFI columns, and look to keep the string of profits coming once again.
⚾ Best NRFI bets today: Sept. 25
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| ⚾ NRFI pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Pirates vs. Tigers NRFI (-130 via bet365) | 1u → 0.77u | Detroit has been a much more profitable NRFI home team than road team |
| Rays vs. Phillies NRFI (-140 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.71u | Sanchez looks to build momentum for the playoffs after his last quality start |
| Cardinals vs. Brewers YRFI (-105 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.95u | McGreevy has pitched to a 5.23 ERA against Milwaukee |
| Angels vs. Mariners NRFI (-145 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.69u | Detmers has a 2.13 ERA against Seattle this year |
Total wagered: 4 units | Max profit: 3.12 units
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💰 Best NRFI bet today
Pirates vs. Tigers (6:40 ET)
- Bubba Chandler (4.34 ERA) vs. Jackson Jobe (3.98 ERA)
- NRFI records: Pirates (84-75) vs. Tigers (80-79)
Detroit ranks in the top half of the league in terms of NRFI win percentage, but its NRFI splits between home and road games are staggering. The Tigers have cashed the NRFI in 60% of home games (47-31 record) and are 33-48 to the NRFI in road games (41%).
Bubba Chandler has allowed three runs or fewer in both starts against AL Central opponents, with one quality start mixed in. Meanwhile, Jackson Jobe has made back-to-back quality starts, with his strikeout total increasing in four straight. He has pitched to a 3.12 ERA in 17.1 innings in September.
📡 SBR Edge: Season-long NRFI success
Pittsburgh had a two-game NRFI streak snapped in Thursday's game with the Cardinals, which they entered tied for fifth in NRFI success rate (53%).
🔥 NRFI/YRFI picks today
Rays vs. Phillies (6:40 ET)
- Freddy Peralta (4.56 ERA) vs. Cristopher Sanchez (2.93 ERA)
- NRFI records: Rays (85-74) vs. Phillies (75-84)
Cristopher Sanchez pitched to a 6.87 ERA in his first three starts of September. But the southpaw redeemed himself with a quality start against the Mets his last time out. While the YRFI cashed in that outing, it was no fault of Sanchez’s, as he pitched a clean first inning.
Meanwhile, Freddy Peralta entered his last start amid a four-start winning streak while pitching to a 0.78 ERA, 0.61 WHIP, and 17:4 K:BB rate. He followed that up with being one out away from a quality start against the Red Sox (5.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R), and set down Boston’s top three in order while recording two strikeouts.
Cardinals vs. Brewers (7:40 ET)
- Michael McGreevy (3.84 ERA) vs. Robert Gasser (4.01 ERA)
- YRFI records: Cardinals (77-82) vs. Brewers (76-83)
Michael McGreevy has not fared well in two starts against Milwaukee this year. He has allowed six runs on 12 hits over 10.1 innings and a .286 OBA in this NL Central rivalry. While holding Jackson Chourio and Brice Turang to a combined 1-for-7 has helped him pitch two clean first innings against the Brewers this year, I’m expecting the success from the rest of the lineup to rub off on the Brewers table-setters.
On the other side, I don’t trust any Milwaukee pitcher outside of Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson heading into the playoffs. Robert Gasser will also have to deal with two Cardinals hitters who rank in the top seven of MLB in RBI (Alec Burleson and Jordan Walker).
Angels vs. Mariners (10:10 ET)
- Reid Detmers (3.47 ERA) vs. Bryce Miller (3.99 ERA)
- NRFI records: Angels (79-80) vs. Mariners (72-87)
Reid Detmers has faced the Mariners twice this year, and both were quality starts with one scoreless outing mixed in. His 2.13 ERA against Seattle is his third-lowest ERA against any of the eight teams he has faced multiple times this season.
For as much as Bryce Miller struggled with a 9.00 ERA in August, he has rebounded nicely with a 3.38 ERA in September. He is also coming off his first scoreless start since July 2, which was also just the second time he recorded six-plus strikeouts since then. Miller looks to improve upon his .169 OBA at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park.
🚀 Best NRFI/YRFI parlay today
With my three NRFI plays of this four-leg parlay, I’ve used a combination of backing NRFI trends (home games in Detroit), Cy Young-caliber pitching (Sanchez), and extensive data in a divisional rivalry (Detmers vs. Seattle). The division rivalry data is also why I’m fond of the YRFI cashing in the Cardinals vs. Brewers matchup.
💵 Best NRFI/YRFI parlay today
- Pirates-Tigers NRFI
- Rays-Phillies NRFI
- Cardinals-Brewers YRFI
- Angels-Mariners NRFI
Best odds: +869 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 0.87u)
❓ NRFI betting FAQ
What does NRFI mean in baseball betting?
NRFI stands for "No Run First Inning." It's a popular MLB bet that neither team will score in the first inning of a game, and the bet settles after just six outs (three per half-inning).
What does YRFI mean?
YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning" - the opposite of an NRFI. This MLB prop bet cashes if there's at least one run by either team in the first inning.
What should I look for when betting NRFIs?
Each team's starting pitcher is the biggest factor in cashing a NRFI bet, but you should also focus on each team's NRFI records (home vs. away) and each lineup's first-inning tendencies. Recent form can also play a bigger role than full-season numbers.
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