Italy vs. Belgium Prediction, Picks & Odds for Friday's Nations League Match
Nations League action rolls on Friday with League A action and my Italy vs. Belgium prediction breaks down a clash of two squads going through some transformation. At the helm for Belgium, Mark van Bommel makes his debut following the departure of Rudi Garcia, while Roberto Mancini has returned to the touchline for Italy after Gennaro Gattuso failed to lead his side to the World Cup.
So, despite that things will look very different when play at Olimpico in Rome gets started at 2:45 p.m. ET (Fubo), I've found my favorite ways to attack the slate.
⚽ Italy vs. Belgium predictions & best bets
See our experts' soccer picks.
| Best bets | Best odds | Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Italy Over 5.5 corners | +130 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.65 units |
| Italy Over 14.5 shots | -125 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.4 units |
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💰 Italy vs. Belgium best bet
Check out all of our soccer betting analysis and expert predictions this season.
Italy Over 5.5 corners (+130)
Uncertainty abounds, again, with new managers. But this isn't Mancini's first time at the helm of Gli Azzurri and I'm drawing on his previous body of work while making this wager. His teams want to establish territory, push their fullbacks forward (music to the ears of Calafiori). Through blocked crosses, deflected attempts, and Belgium clearances, Italy has numerous paths to reaching his number.
Barella, Ricci, and Tonali provide a three-man midfield against the Tielemans-Lavia double pivot for Belgium's 4-2-3-1, which should allow Italy to circulate possession centrally before advancing the fullbacks. The buildup and shape, with Calafiori and Kayode overlapping, should stretch Belgium's back four horizontally.
This is exactly how we get past this number, which falls in the more reasonable end of my projections - but the uncertainty caps this at half of a unit.
🆚 Who will win Italy vs. Belgium?
I'm backing the hosts to control more territory and generate more shots and crosses than the visitors, but Belgium's transition threat is real and gives them a realistic scoring route.
Score prediction: Italy 2, Belgium 1
🔥 More Italy vs. Belgium expert picks
Italy Over 14.5 shots (-125)
The path here again starts with the midfield advantage. Barella and Tonali on either side of Ricci against Belgium's expected Tielemans-Lavia double pivot give the Azzurri the edge in controlling possession in the center of the pitch. Once Kayode and Calafiori move forward, they allow Barella and Tonali to occupy the half-spaces behind the fullbacks, creating several layers for Italy to generate volume from the outside.
And the forwards don't slow that volume. Pio Esposito in the center in a shot and SOT monster, and Keane and Zaniolo (or Cambiaghi) should give them paths to attack from either flank. We don't need exceptional finishing here; we just need Mancini's possession-heavy play to hang on in Belgium's final third and result in shots. Despite the price being shorter, in my projections this is the higher variance of my two plays, but I'll roll with half a unit, max.
📊 Italy vs. Belgium odds
Odds from bet365 as of Sept. 24; subject to change
- Three-way moneyline: Italy (+125) | Draw (+250) Belgium (+210)
- Total: Over 2.5 (-125) | Under 2.5 (+100)
🆚 Italy vs. Belgium projected lineups
Here are the projected lineups for Italy vs. Belgium; subject to change:
| Italy (4-3-3) | Belgium (4-2-3-1) |
|---|---|
| Donnarumma (GK) | Lammens (GK) |
| Calafiori (D) | Castagne (D) |
| Bastoni (D) | Winter (D) |
| Mancini (D) | Debast (D) |
| Kayode (D) | Cuyper (D) |
| Tonali (M) | Tielemans (M) |
| Ricci (M) | Lavia (M) |
| Barella (M) | Lukebakio (M) |
| Keane (F) | Bruyne (M) |
| Esposito (F) | Godts (M) |
| Zaniolo (F) | Ketelaere (F) |
📺 How to watch Italy vs. Belgium
- Date: Friday, Sept. 25
- Kickoff: 2:45 p.m. ET
- Location: Olimpico (Rome)
- Streaming: Fubo
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