Azerbaijan Prix Predictions, Odds 2026: Expert F1 Picks for Sunday's Race
The F1 season turns to the Baku Circuit as I offer my Azerbaijan Grand Prix predictions for Saturday’s race (7 a.m. ET, ESPN).
Kimi Antonelli, who has won two straight races, is the undisputed betting favorite entering P3. George Russell set the fastest time in P2 ahead of his Italian teammate, while Max Verstappen posted the third-fastest time.
I’m backing Antonelli to win his third straight GP, but I also have my eye on Lando Norris and Verstappen.
📊 Azerbaijan Grand Prix odds 2026
Top Azerbaijan Grand Prix odds to win Sunday's race, via BetMGM; subject to change.
| Driver | American Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kimi Antonelli | +120 | 45.45% | $12 |
| George Russell | +380 | 20.83% | $38 |
| Lando Norris | +420 | 19.23% | $42 |
| Max Verstappen | +700 | 12.5% | $70 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +1300 | 7.4% | $130 |
| Charles Leclerc | +1300 | 7.4% | $130 |
| Oscar Piastri | +2700 | 3.57% | $270 |
| Pierre Gasly | +8000 | 1.23% | $800 |
| Isack Hadjar | +8000 | 1.23% | $800 |
All other drivers are trading at +30000 or longer.
💰 Azerbaijan Grand Prix predictions, best bets
All picks were made based on odds after P1 and P2.
| 💰 Bet | ⚖️ Units | 🧠 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| To win race: Kimi Antonelli (+120 via FanDuel) | 1u -> 1.2u | Kimi Antonelli has won two straight GPs and eight of 14 overall. |
| Max Verstappen to finish top 3 (+125 via FanDuel) | 1u -> 1.25u | Max Verstappen has finished among the top three in five of the previous seven races. |
| Lando Norris to finish in top 3 (-150 via BetMGM) | 0.5u -> 0.33u | Lando Norris has finished among the top three in three of the previous four races. |
Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 2.88 units
🏆 Pick to win Azerbaijan Grand Prix: Kimi Antonelli
There are potential reasons not to back Antonelli, but none are compelling enough to deter. The Italian has won two races in a row, including the second-greatest comeback of all time at the Italian GP.
While only three of nine polesitters won the Azerbaijan GP, Antonelli not only has the best-performing car, but he’s also showing the most mastery. Because of a few tight corners, the Baku Circuit’s average speed is in the middle of the pack compared to other tracks.
While that doesn’t ostensibly favor Mercedes, which performs best on high-speed tracks, Antonelli has proven he can win regardless of the circuit’s layout. He’s won three of the previous five races, finishing among the top three in all of them.
🏎️ Max Verstappen to finish among top 3
The four-time champion has enjoyed previous success at the Azerbaijan GP, winning twice, including last year. He’s also in excellent form, finishing in the top three in five of the previous seven races.
While those stats are compelling, I’m most drawn to Verstappen’s ability to showcase his expertise and experience on a challenging circuit. I’m giving Verstappen the advantage on the castle section and the trickiest corners, including Turn 15.
Those factors should give the Dutchman an edge in his quest to secure a third successive top-three finish.
👊 Lando Norris to finish in top 3
Lando Norris has finished among the top three in three of the previous four races. He finished fourth in the other race at the Italian GP.
While Russell looked smooth in P1 and P2, I cannot overlook Norris’ superb form. He has been the second-best driver on the grid since his victory at the Hungarian GP. Norris probably deserved better in the previous race in Madrid, as the inopportune timing of the safety car scuppered any chance for the Brit to win.
While I would have liked to see Norris faster than sixth in P2, he has time to turn it around. And the Baku Circuit is conducive to a ton of movement at the top of the grid.
🏆 Past Azerbaijan Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-Honda RBPT |
| 2024 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren-Mercedes |
| 2023 | Sergio Perez | Red Bull Racing-Honda RBPT |
| 2022 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-RBPT |
| 2021 | Sergio Perez | Red Bull Racing-Honda |
| 2020 | No Event | No Event |
| 2019 | Valtteri Bottas | Mercedes |
| 2018 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2017 | Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull Racing-TAG Heuer |
🗓️ 2026 Azerbaijan Grand Prix schedule
- Practice 3: Friday, Sept. 25 @ 4:30 a.m. ET
- Qualifying: Friday, Sept. 25 @ 8 a.m. ET
- Race: Saturday, Sept. 26 @ 7 a.m. ET
📺 How to watch 2026 Azerbaijan Grand Prix
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 26
- Time: 7 a.m. ET
- Location: Baku City Circuit (Baku, Azerbaijan)
- How to watch: ESPN
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