Spanish Grand Prix Predictions, Odds 2026: Expert F1 Picks for Sunday's Race
Kimi Antonelli pulled off a miracle in Italy, and my Spanish Grand Prix predictions back the teenager to take the checkered flag for the eighth time this season.
Antonelli is the betting favorite, while Lando Norris and George Russell have the second- and third-shortest odds, respectively, for the debut race at Madring, which starts on Sunday at 9 a.m. ET (ESPN).
📊 Spanish Grand Prix odds 2026
Top Spanish Grand Prix odds to win Sunday's race, via BetMGM; subject to change.
| Driver | American Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kimi Antonelli | +175 | 36.36% | $17.50 |
| Lando Norris | +325 | 23.53% | $32.50 |
| George Russell | +450 | 18.18% | $45 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +700 | 12.5% | $70 |
| Charles Leclerc | +800 | 11.11% | $80 |
| Max Verstappen | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| Oscar Piastri | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| Liam Lawson | +10000 | 0.99% | $1,000 |
All other drivers are trading at +50000 or longer.
💰 Spanish Grand Prix predictions, best bets
All picks were made based on odds before the practice sessions and qualifying.
| Bet | Units | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| To win race: Kimi Antonelli (+175) | 1u -> 1.75u | Antonelli was masterful in Italy, and I can’t overlook his car’s brilliance. |
| Mercedes to win (-111) | 1u -> 0.90u | The W17 is still the talk of the town, and both drivers are in excellent form. |
| Lewis Hamilton to finish in the top 4 | 1u -> 0.625u | Hamilton has finished among the top four in six of the previous nine races. |
Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 3.3 units
🏆 Pick to win Spanish Grand Prix: Kimi Antonelli
Antonelli has won seven of 13 races this season, and he must be enjoying unparalleled confidence entering the weekend.
The 19-year-old is having a season most will never even dream about. His most odds-defying, impressive race came at the Italian GP last week, where he secured F1’s second-greatest comeback.
Madring, Sunday's track, is making its debut, and most people are talking about its flagship corner, La Monumental. That’s because it’s pitched at the maximum 24% angle permitted; it’s 10 meters high and 550 meters long.
I have no doubt Antonelli will hold his own on that corner while utilizing his high-performance machine optimally throughout the race.
🏎️ Mercedes to win
Madring is expected to test the drivers. Not a rudimentary track, it’s chock-full of challenging corners, most notably La Monumental, but it also has a fair share of long straightaways.
Even if Mercedes doesn’t navigate the corners better than Ferrari and McLaren, I’m more confident in Antonelli and George Russell as a tandem.
Mercedes has won nine of 13 races, and Russell has been markedly better recently, finishing in the top three in five of the previous seven races and in the top two on four occasions.
👊 Lewis Hamilton to finish in top 4
Being the only pair who have driven on Madring, Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc have a slight advantage over the rest of the grid. The Ferrari drivers conducted a filming day on the new track in July, facilitating a modicum of familiarity.
While I don’t expect Hamilton to win the race, he should achieve a top-four finish, as the short -160 odds at FanDuel suggest.
Hamilton hasn’t been in the best form recently. However, he has finished among the first four in six of the previous nine races. I also believe La Monumental favors Ferrari and Hamilton, arguably the most experienced driver on the grid.
💡 How I'm betting the Spanish Grand Prix
While I’m not putting all my eggs in the Mercedes basket, I’m heavily leaning on the in-form tandem. Antonelli is electric at the moment, and I’m confident in backing the 19-year-old superstar.
Russell is also performing much better recently, and Mercedes’ dominance, while less pronounced than earlier in the season, remains palpable.
And then there’s Hamilton, who hasn’t been flying recently. But he has consistently placed among the top four, and I believe his experience will help him get there again. I’m investing only one unit on each bet.
🏆 Past Spanish Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren-Mercedes |
| 2024 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-Honda RBPT |
| 2023 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-RBPT |
| 2022 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-RBPT |
| 2021 | Lewis Hamilton | McLaren |
| 2020 | Lewis Hamilton | McLaren |
| 2019 | Lewis Hamilton | McLaren |
| 2018 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2017 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2016 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-TAG Heuer |
🗓️ 2026 Spanish Grand Prix schedule
- Practice 1: Friday, Sept. 11 @ 7:30 a.m. ET
- Practice 2: Friday, Sept. 11 @ 11 a.m. ET
- Practice 3: Saturday, Sept. 12 @ 6:30 a.m. ET
- Qualifying: Saturday, Sept. 12 @ 10 a.m. ET
- Race: Sunday, Sept. 13 @ 9 a.m. ET
📺 How to watch 2026 Spanish Grand Prix
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 13
- Time: 9 a.m. ET
- Location: Circuito de Madring (Madrid)
- How to watch: ESPN
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