College Football Best Bets for Week 4: Expert Picks & Predictions

After last week’s column nailed both plays on totals involving ACC teams, my college football best bets for Week 4 look to continue that momentum with half of my four wagers being of the O/U variety.

My college football Week 4 predictions back the Under in a game involving the usually highly prolific UTSA offense. I also make the case for two Group of Six underdogs who are playing road games against ACC and SEC opponents.

🏈 College football best bets & expert picks: Week 4

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 4 based on the latest college football odds.

Total wagered: 4 units | Max profit: +3.54 units

💰 Best college football bets this week

Colorado State-UTSA Under 58.5 (-110 via DraftKings)

A week after Colorado State lost an 18-point game to then-No. 11 BYU in a primetime home game, the Rams have a prime letdown spot in traveling to San Antonio for an early noon ET kickoff on Saturday. While weather won't affect this game, since it will be played indoors in the Alamodome, I still expect a low-scoring affair.

UTSA is coming off a game where it held the Longhorns to a season-low 172 passing yards and Heisman candidate Arch Manning to a season-low 30.7 QBR. This was always going to be a tough game for Colorado State, as the Roadrunners are 34-5 at the Alamodome in the Jeff Traylor era, which is tied for the ninth most home wins among FBS schools since 2020. 

UTSA has registered its top six rushing seasons and top five passing seasons in school history in Traylor’s tenure, but it also failed to crack 30 points in three of its last five games that kicked off at 1 p.m. local time or earlier.

Oklahoma State-West Virginia Over 60.5 (-108 via DraftKings)

Oklahoma State’s upset of then-No. 6 Oregon should not be understated, as it put up 39 points on a Ducks team that not only ranks in the top 12 in both EPA/Play on offense and defense, but is also 14th in PFF’s coverage grading. In the process, Cowboys quarterback Drew Mestemaker became the first since 2016 to pass for 300 yards and run for at least 100 yards against Oregon.

On the other side, Mountaineers quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. ranks second among FBS quarterbacks in QBR after accounting for 11 total touchdowns. 

This matchup screams Over, as it pits two teams that run plays every 24 seconds on average, which has them each ranked in the top 20 among Power 4 teams.

🟡 Appalachian State +14.5 (-115 via bet365)

Not all losses are created equal, and the manner in which NC State lost last week while trying to run out the clock is not something I expect it to rebound from quickly. I was always going to love Appalachian State in this matchup as a tricky Group of Six opponent, but now I’m making it an even stronger play.

Malachi Singleton won Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Week, and currently ranks in the top 11 among FBS quarterbacks in completion percentage and passing yards per game. 

The Mountaineers have a history of playing up well against Power 4 squads. Prior to a 42-point loss against then-No. 22 Clemson in 2024, their previous eight games against Power 4 competition were all decided by a touchdown or less.

Two of our other top sports betting sites (FanDuel and BetMGM) have a line below the key number of 14 at +13.5. Thus, it is worth the slightly extra juice (and 53.49% implied odds) to grab the two touchdowns and the hook at bet365.

🌀 Tulsa +7.5 (-120 via bet365)

There are some college football environments that are clear homefield advantages in night games, like Death Valley in Baton Rouge or “white out” games at Penn State. An 8:00 tilt in Arkansas in what will likely be a half-empty stadium isn’t one of them.

The Razorbacks do not have a great history of success in close games, losing all six games decided by seven or fewer points a year ago. Now they host a 3-0 Tulsa squad that already owns a two-touchdown victory over Oklahoma State. Expect the Golden Hurricane to use their top-15 PFF rushing grade to take advantage of an Arkansas defense that has already allowed 10 rushing touchdowns.