Braves vs. Yankees Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Friday, Aug. 7

The Braves and Yankees begin a three-game set at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, N.Y., that serves as a preview of a possible World Series matchup. My Braves vs. Yankees prediction expects a strong outing from Max Fried to lead to the Under cashing, though a specific Bronx Bomber is a great value play to go yard off of Tyler Mahle.

First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited), and the Yankees are a -135 betting favorite.

⚾ Braves vs. Yankees picks & odds today

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Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 2.68 units

🏆 Who will win Braves vs. Yankees?

New York has gotten great starting pitching to make up for a struggling offense of late, but that won’t be enough to beat the red-hot Braves in this series opener.

Score prediction: Braves 3, Yankees 2

💰 Braves vs. Yankees prediction & best bet

Under 8.5 (-124)

From June 1 up to Wednesday’s series finale against the Cardinals (which the Yankees lost 3-1 while producing four hits), New York’s offense ranked 29th or worse in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS. New York bolstered its lineup at the trade deadline with deals for Luis Garcia Jr. and Heliot Ramos, but injuries to Aaron Judge and others have proved too difficult to overcome.

Meanwhile, Atlanta has pitched to a sub-2.00 ERA during an eight-game winning streak. Its ability to limit New York’s offense has me ignoring its 4.5 runs per game average in that span.

🔥 Best Braves vs. Yankees player prop bet

Max Fried Over 17.5 outs recorded (-101)

Atlanta’s offense has been intimidating during an eight-game winning streak, belting 11 home runs, which helped lead to a plus-21 run differential. But the fact that the Braves have struck out at the third-lowest rate since the start of July makes me more confident that Max Fried can finish with an efficient pitch count that gets him through six innings.

Fried should be fired up to face many of his former Braves teammates, and I trust he is getting stretched out to the point that manager Aaron Boone lets him work longer. Fried threw 57 and 66 pitches in his first two starts since returning from the IL, but threw 78 in his last start at the Cubs that got him through 5 ⅓ innings. Had he not pitched to his second-highest strikeout total of the season (seven) in that start, he likely would’ve reached the six-inning plateau quicker.

💣 Braves vs. Yankees home run prediction

Ben Rice to homer (+350)

Paul Goldschmidt is the only current Yankees hitter with a home run off of Tyler Mahle, and he has three of them. But Goldschmidt is likely platooning with Luis Garcia Jr. with a right-handed pitcher on the mound, so I’m backing Ben Rice, who ranks sixth in homers.

Mahle has allowed a home run in two of his last three starts, and has pitched to a poor 8.04 road ERA. Nine of Mahle’s 14 home runs allowed have come on the road, and seven of them have come to left-handed batters, despite him allowing an OPS 150 points lower in that split.

Rice ranks in the 93rd percentile or better in xSLG and barrel rate, despite not having homered in 10 straight games. 

🚀 Braves vs. Yankees same-game parlay

I am placing this same-game parlay at DraftKings even though it has a lower total of 8 as opposed to 8.5 at FanDuel, because of the better odds offered on the other two player props. Since Rice has not homered in 10 straight games, I am swapping that player prop play for him merely to record one base hit, as he looks to snap a 1-for-13 slump. And with the Yankees bullpen throwing the fourth-most innings of any AL team, this is a great opportunity for the team to get length out of Fried.

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💡 How I'm betting Braves vs. Yankees: MLB strategy

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Seeing the Braves as high as +125 odds had me tempted to play them on the moneyline, especially since they are tied with the Red Sox for the Majors’ longest active winning streak (eight games). But New York’s offensive woes made the Under more attractive, especially since one of its best starting pitchers toes the rubber tonight. But for what it’s worth, the Braves have alternated wins and losses in Mahle’s last five starts, with the team coming off a 6-5 loss his last time out.

📊 Live Braves vs. Yankees odds

📈 Braves vs. Yankees betting trends

🚑 Braves vs. Yankees injuries

📺 How to watch Braves vs. Yankees

• Date: Friday, Aug. 7
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, N.Y.)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited, MLB.TV
• Braves starter: Tyler Mahle (3-9, 5.13 ERA)
• Yankees starter: Max Fried (4-3, 3.12 ERA)