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MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Tuesday, Sept. 22

My best home run predictions today break down the best HR bets for today's MLB slate.

Matt MacKay

Last Updated: September 22, 2026 1:51 PM EDT • 3 minute read

Pictured: Diamondbacks 3B Nolan Arenado celebrates after hitting a grand slam while we make our best home run predictions today. Photo by Arianna Grainey-Imagn Images

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We're back to a fully loaded 16-game MLB slate on Tuesday thanks to a Rays vs. Yankees doubleheader, so there are a bunch of quality power hitters to target with my home run predictions today. The losing slump ended in epic fashion last night, cashing Giants' CF Drew Gilbert's home run prop at +950 odds.

My MLB home run picks for Tuesday's slate start with Jake Burger. The Rangers' 1B finds himself in a great matchup against Sean Manaea, as the Mets' southpaw has allowed 7 home runs across his previous 5 starts.

⚾ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Sept. 22

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

💣 Home run pick	💵 Units	📝 Notes
Jake Burger (+375 via bet365)	0.27u → 1.01u	Burger faces southpaw Sean Manaea, allowing 7 home runs in his last 5 starts for the Mets.
Nolan Arenado (+450 via bet365)	0.25u → 1.12u	Arenado has hit 6 home runs in September, including 2 homers in his previous 4 contests.
Yordan Alvarez (+333 via BetMGM)	0.31u → 1.03u	Alvarez has hit 30 of 40 home runs against right-handed pitching in 2026.

Total wagered: 0.83 units | Max profit: 3.16 units

💣 Best home run predictions & odds today

Home run pick: Jake Burger (+375)

Burger is looking to lead the Rangers back into the playoffs and will lean on his barrel percentage (12.5) and hard-hit percentage (46.4) to record a home run at Globe Life Field tonight. He'll get a big boost from Manaea, who is allowing a 10.9 barrel rate (4th percentile).

Manaea has allowed 7 home runs in his previous 5 starts for the Mets. Burger just hit a home run at this ballpark during his last appearance for the Rangers on Sunday night.

Bet Burger's home run prop at +375 odds on bet365.

Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Where to watch: MLB.TV

📡 SBR Edge: Serving Burgers

Burger has hit 2 home runs in just 8 plate appearances against Manaea.

🔥 More home run predictions today

Home run pick: Nolan Arenado (+450)

The Diamondbacks are at Coors Field tonight, which remains one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the MLB due to its high altitude. Winds are also forecast to blow out at 9mph tonight, meaning Arenado is set up for success in a favorable pitching matchup.

Arenado is red-hot at the plate this month, recording 6 home runs in September. This includes 2 home runs in Arenado's previous 4 contests.

Kyle Freeland is a southpaw, allowing a 10.6 barrel percentage (6th percentile) and 43.1 hard-hit percentage (13th percentile) amongst MLB pitchers. Arenado has 10 home runs in 152 plate appearances against lefties this season.

Stay on bet365 to bet Arenado's home run at +450 odds.

Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: MLB.TV

Home run pick: Yordan Alvarez (+333)

Alvarez and the Astros will face the Mariners' right-handed starter, Logan Gilbert, on Tuesday night. Gilbert has been a turnstile for home runs, allowing 8 homers in his previous 5 starts.

Gilbert is a right-handed pitcher, which is ideal for Alvarez, recording 30 of his 40 home runs against righties in 2026. Houston's DH has had 3 straight appearances without a home run, so now there's increased value on Alvarez in home run prop betting markets.

Gilbert is surrendering a 10.1 barrel percentage (10th percentile), and Alvarez maxes out all hitters with a 100th percentile xSLG (.637) this year. He's also sporting a barrel percentage of 16.0 (98th percentile).

Go to BetMGM to get +333 odds on Alvarez's home run prop tonight.

Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: MLB.TV

🚀 Best home run parlay picks today

💵 Best MLB home run parlay today

Jake Burger (+375)
Nolan Arenado (+450)
Yordan Alvarez (+300)

Best odds: +10350 via bet365 (0.10u -> 10.35u)

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Written by:
Matt MacKay

Matt MacKay has handicapped golf, the NFL, NCAAF, and NHL since joining the sports betting industry as a writer in 2020. He’s worked for several prominent sites, recently expanding his coverage to include sports betting news and the regulatory industry. Bringing a background in communications and writing, earning a Masters Degree in Organizational Communication from Ohio University, Matt has co-hosted a fantasy football and sports betting podcast, while continuously refining his handicapping methods. This includes identifying recent trends, head-to-head statistics, and comparing individual and team strengths and weaknesses to accurately predict the outcome in certain betting markets before a game or event. He’s a daily bettor and tends to wager on FanDuel, with DraftKings and Hard Rock Bet as preferred sports betting app alternatives. An avid researcher, writer, editor, and podcaster, Matt is eager to dig into matchups to offer readers and subscribers value on his picks. He’s a big proponent of building bankroll by avoiding poor betting habits and tendencies, like chasing losses, placing too many wagers, and managing bankroll. His worst beats to date both came on two separate NFL parlays, losing due to Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown dropping passes. NRFIs have quickly become one of Matt’s favorite betting markets, recently diving into MLB game props.