Best NRFI Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Picks for Tuesday, Sept. 22
It’s a more loaded than usual MLB slate with the Rays-Yankees doubleheader adding a 16th game to the schedule, and that is exactly where my best NRFI bets today begin.
Along with that AL East rivalry that is New York’s last chance to overtake Tampa Bay in the AL East, I add an NRFI and YRFI wager on two other divisional rivalries in the National League. My last NRFI play comes from a possible AL playoff preview with the electric Payton Tolle toeing the rubber.
⚾ Best NRFI bets today: Sept. 22
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| ⚾ NRFI pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Rays vs. Yankees NRFI (Game 1) (-130 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.77u | Carlos Rodon has made history for the Yankees this season |
| Cardinals vs. Pirates NRFI (-145 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.69u | Andre Pallante has great career numbers against the top of the Pirates order |
| Guardians vs. Red Sox NRFI (-165 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.61u | Payton Tolle had an immaculate first inning in his last start |
| Padres vs. Dodgers YRFI (-105 via bet365) | 1u → 0.95u | Both offenses have been red-hot amid winning streaks |
Total wagered: 4 units | Max profit: 3.02 units
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💰 Best NRFI bet today
Rays vs. Yankees (1:05 p.m. ET)
- Nick Martinez (2.94 ERA) vs. Carlos Rodon (2.95 ERA)
- NRFI records: Rays (82-73) vs. Yankees (78-77)
Tampa Bay has won eight of nine games while pitching to a 2.00 ERA and a .198 opponent batting average. Nick Martinez is a big reason that the team owns the second-lowest rotation ERA in the AL, as he and Drew Rasmussen both bring sub-3.00 ERAs into this series.
On the other side, Carlos Rodon has allowed three or fewer runs in 25 consecutive starts. That is the longest streak in Yankees history and is tied for the sixth-longest streak in MLB history. Rodon has pitched to a 2.61 ERA and .180 OBA at home this season.
📡 SBR Edge: Rodon in elite company
Over his last 24 starts, Carlos Rodon has allowed four or fewer runs, two or fewer home runs, and has pitched more than three innings in each start. Jacob deGrom (2018-19) is the only other pitcher in the modern era to accomplish that over a 24-start stretch.
🔥 NRFI/YRFI picks today
Cardinals vs. Pirates (6:40 ET)
- Andre Pallante (3.70 ERA) vs. Jared Jones (4.17 ERA)
- NRFI records: Cardinals (80-76) vs. Pirates (82-74)
Andre Pallante has held current Pirates hitters to a combined .190/.224/.397 slash line in 84 at-bats, with a 19:4 K:BB ratio. He will likely face some combination of Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds in the first inning, but the two sluggers are a combined 6-for-39 against him with nine strikeouts. It is especially important to keep Cruz off the basepaths after he became the third player in Pirates history with three straight seasons of 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases.
On the other side, Jared Jones is amid his most solid three-start stretch of the season. He has allowed three runs over his last 18 innings, while striking out eight-plus in every start in September.
Guardians vs. Red Sox (6:45 ET)
- Parker Messick (2.57 ERA) vs. Payton Tolle (3.02 ERA)
- NRFI records: Guardians (87-69) vs. Red Sox (75-81)
Payton Tolle was given extra rest over the weekend, and that should have him coming out firing. He is unbeaten in his last 12 starts, with a 2.62 ERA and 12.1 K/9. More recently, over his last seven starts, he has a 2.36 ERA while holding opponents to a .189 average and .561 OPS.
Tolle is one of three pitchers with an extension over seven feet and an arm angle under 30 degrees (minimum 2000 pitches), with Jacob Misiorowski and Zack Wheeler the others. That makes his four-seam fastball (among other pitches) seem untouchable. When throwing his four-seam fastball, Tolle ranks fifth in opponents' batting average, seventh in slugging, sixth in wOBA, third in xwOBA and third in whiff rate.
Padres vs. Dodgers (10:10 ET)
- Michael King (3.03 ERA) vs. Undecided
- YRFI records: Padres (64-92) vs. Dodgers (78-78)
San Diego has averaged 8.0 runs per game while collectively batting .332 and logging a .984 OPS amid a five-game winning streak. And even though it is 13-1 over its last 14 games, it isn’t like its pitching has been lights out, as the Padres collectively have an ERA north of 4.00 in that span.
Los Angeles is amid a four-game winning streak of its own, and its offense also has a lot to do with its winning. The Dodgers have averaged 7.3 runs per game while batting .345 and recording a 1.036 team OPS. Shohei Ohtani isn’t due back from the IL until tomorrow, but Los Angeles should be plenty motivated as it is two games back of Milwaukee for the top seed in the NL.
🚀 Best NRFI/YRFI parlay today
Naturally I’m backing several red-hot pitchers as the basis for my three NRFI plays, but they all have great value with a lesser-known name like Andre Pallante mixed in with more household names like Carlos Rodon. In the case of the Padres-Dodgers YRFI play, I’m not just blindly backing both teams’ recent offensive successes, as I’m also down on L.A.’s ability to navigate a clean first inning while throwing a bullpen game.
💵 Best NRFI/YRFI parlay today
- Rays-Yankees NRFI
- Cardinals-Pirates NRFI
- Guardians-Red Sox NRFI
- Padres-Dodgers YRFI
Best odds: +817 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 0.82u)
❓ NRFI betting FAQ
What does NRFI mean in baseball betting?
NRFI stands for "No Run First Inning." It's a popular MLB bet that neither team will score in the first inning of a game, and the bet settles after just six outs (three per half-inning).
What does YRFI mean?
YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning" - the opposite of an NRFI. This MLB prop bet cashes if there's at least one run by either team in the first inning.
What should I look for when betting NRFIs?
Each team's starting pitcher is the biggest factor in cashing a NRFI bet, but you should also focus on each team's NRFI records (home vs. away) and each lineup's first-inning tendencies. Recent form can also play a bigger role than full-season numbers.
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