College Football ATS Picks Week 4: Predictions Against the Spread

My college football ATS picks had success backing big underdogs last week, going 2-1 ATS on ‘dogs of at least +24.5 points. That has me backing at least one such underdog with my Week 4 ATS wagers, including the Big Ten battle between Illinois and No. 7 Ohio State.

Elsewhere, I make the case for two other underdogs (Northern Illinois and Missouri) that fade teams with some of the best ATS cover margins in the country.

🏈 College football picks against the spread: Week 4

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 4 based on the latest college football odds.

🔥 Best college football ATS picks: Week 4

 Illinois +27.5 (-110 via bet365) vs. Ohio State

Several things are going against Illinois in this matchup, like its 1-2 ATS record against Ohio State’s perfect 3-0 ATS mark. In addition, the Buckeyes have scored 52-plus points in each of their last two home games against Illinois. 

But Bret Bielema’s defense held Ohio State to 34 points in last season’s home meeting, and Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin’s 19 completions and 70.4% completion percentage in that game were his worst in an eight-game stretch (seven of which were against Big Ten opponents).

Illinois had more first downs and total yards, with fewer penalties and more than six minutes of time of possession in its home loss to Duke, and an efficient offense that scored points on five of its first six drives (it missed a field goal on the other) should keep pace here.

Given how much of a public team Ohio State is, it's very likely this line gets to the key number of +28 or higher on its own. Either way, the Fighting Illini are a play for me down to +27, but I wouldn't put anyone off waiting until later in the week to see if a better number surfaces.

 Northern Illinois +10.5 (-110 via FanDuel) vs. Georgia State

Northern Illinois was one of my ATS cashes from Week 3, covering as 34.5-point underdogs in a 42-17 loss at Arizona last week. I’m going back to the well again while expecting regression from a Georgia State team that has the fifth-best ATS cover margin (+44.5) and ATS margin per game (+14.8) in the country.

The Huskies scored the first 10 points of the game last week with a field goal and touchdown on their first two drives. They were fortunate to pluck quarterback Taron Dickens (a once UNC commit) as a transfer from Western Carolina a year after he threw for more than 3,500 yards and a 38:2 TD:INT ratio.

Bet365 is offering plus-money odds (+100) at Northern Illinois +9.5, but FanDuel's standard -110 juice (52.38% implied odds) is worth the price to back the underdogs at a line higher than the key number of +10.

 Missouri +6.5 (-110 via bet365) vs. Mississippi State

Mississippi State is another team in the public’s eye, as it is tied for the best ATS cover margin (+55) and ATS margin per game (+18.3) of any FBS squad. But this line is overinflated after its big win as road underdogs against South Carolina in its SEC opener. 

The Bulldogs are now ranked in the AP top 25 for the first time in head coach Jeff Lebby’s tenure. But South Carolina turnovers directly aided in Mississippi State coming back from a 16-0 deficit last week, and this is still a Bulldogs team that is 2-19 in its last 21 SEC games.

The value is terrific for Missouri backers at bet365, as the Tigers are a full point lower at +5.5 at the opposite end of the market.