NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Survivor Strategies & Safest Pick for NFL Week 3

For the second week in a row a top two NFL moneyline favorite lost, and four of the top eight favorites lost outright in Week 2. Thankfully my NFL survivor picks advanced those who tailed the safest pick of the 49ers over the Dolphins. And for the second week in a row, I’ve given NFL survivor pool contestants a big leg up with a second straight successful survivor pick, with those plays using the Raiders and Eagles.

I’m back with four more pieces of survivor pool strategies and picks, including my contrarian play on an NFC East team that has taken on a new identity under a veteran head coach.

🎯 Best NFL survivor pool picks: Week 3

See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this season.

🔴 Safest NFL survivor pick: Chiefs (87.0%) over Dolphins

Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in Week 3.

The Chiefs practically played five quarters of football in taking its overtime game against the Colts on Sunday Night Football down to the last second. But the Dolphins look like a real threat to go 0-17 this season, and with how many injuries there were to starting quarterbacks last week (Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels to name a few), I wouldn’t put anyone off backing Kansas City this early while Patrick Mahomes is healthy.

Miami has started 0-2 for the third straight season. And with the Raiders at a surprising 2-0, there aren’t many AFC West games I’d be comfortable using the Chiefs in later in the season.

🦁 Best NFL survivor pick: Lions (77.0%) over Jets

Detroit was at a big disadvantage last Thursday night, coming off a game where its defense was on the field for 86 plays, while having to go up against a hyped Bills team in the first game of their new stadium.

The Lions now got three extra days of rest to catch their breath and prepare for a Jets team that would’ve been 2-0 if not for a fourth quarter collapse against the Packers. But poor weather in New Jersey last Sunday likely had a lot to do with the Jets playing Green Bay close, and New York doesn’t have the offensive firepower to stay with Detroit in a track meet indoors.

Detroit is a smart survivor pool play now, as it is projected to be a bigger home favorite than this week in just one other game this season (Week 14 versus the Titans).

🗽 NFL survivor strategy pick: Giants (74.4%) over Titans

New York is at a scheduling disadvantage in this game having flown back to town early Tuesday morning after a late Monday Night Football game on the west coast. But if any coach can get his team prepared for such a situation, it’s John Harbaugh.

The Titans are 0-2 for the third straight season, and are being overvalued for nearly knocking off the Eagles in a home game in brutal temperatures (it felt like 110+ degrees on the field last week). Tennessee doesn’t look like a team that is going to improve much upon its NFL-worst six wins over the last two seasons. Its offense under new offensive coordinator also hasn’t made strides from last season when it finished bottom three in 30th in points per game, passing yards per game, rushing yards per game, EPA, and Total QBR.

❌ NFL survivor pick to avoid: Packers (77.8%) over Falcons

Green Bay needed a comeback from 10 points down in the fourth quarter to survive the Jets in overtime. The Packers narrowly avoided a seventh straight loss dating back to last season (incl. playoffs), and will now be a popular pick on a short week against the 0-2 Falcons.

I’m avoiding Green Bay as Atlanta is getting a healthy Michael Penix Jr. back at quarterback, after the team at one point pulled Cooper Rush last week in favor of rookie Jack Strand. Atlanta hasn’t run an offensive play inside the red zone this season, but I’d still prefer to use the Packers when they have a healthy Micah Parsons back on defense. After all prior to last week, the team is 9-4-1 while allowing 20.1 points per game when Parsons plays, and was 0-5 while allowing 29.8 points per game when he doesn’t.

💵 Circa Survivor contest update entering Week 3

Two of last week’s top three most popular plays in the Circa Sports survivor pool contest (Buccaneers and Chargers) combined to eliminate 7,418 of the 16,935 entries that began the week (43.8%). Heading into Monday night, there were 8,368 total entries eliminated in Week 2, leaving 8,567 entries alive heading into Week 3. And for the second straight week, over 30% of the entire field was eliminated.