Brewers vs. Phillies Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Today, Sept. 22

Two of the National League's heavyweights clash tonight as the Milwaukee Brewers visit the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. My Brewers vs. Phillies predictions are eyeing the hosts to jump on Dustin May, who has been struggling lately. Zack Wheeler counters on the hill for Philly. 

I also have two additional MLB picks, including a player prop, ahead of tonight's first pitch from Philadelphia at 6:40 p.m. ET (MLB.TV). The Phillies are a -137 moneyline favorite. 

⚾ Brewers vs. Phillies picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

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🏆 Who will win Brewers vs. Phillies?

Wheeler has been dealing, and the Phillies have won three of their last four games with the veteran on the mound. I expect a low-scoring game, with both offenses not in the best form right now. 

Score prediction: Brewers 3, Phillies 5

💰 Brewers vs. Phillies prediction & best bet

Phillies ML (-137)

Wheeler has really settled in nicely lately. The right-hander sports a 1.74 FIP across his last two starts, giving up just 1.93 walks per nine innings. Wheeler hasn't allowed a homer during that span, and he's consistently inducing weak contact, posting a 52.9% ground ball rate. 

The Brewers are familiar with Wheeler, and he's held this current lineup to a .190 average across 100 at-bats. Milwaukee also owns an 84 wRC+ in its previous six contests. 

May, meanwhile, has compiled a 6.03 xERA in his last two appearances, with a concerning 12.5% barrel rate. Although the Phillies aren't swinging it particularly well, they're a mile better at home with a 102 wRC+, compared to an 83 mark on the road. 

Philly will do enough damage against May behind another gem from Wheeler. 

🔥 Best Brewers vs. Phillies player prop bet

Zack Wheeler Under 1.5 earned runs (+105 at DraftKings)

Wheeler has been practically unhittable over the last month. He's allowed Under 1.5 earned runs in four consecutive outings. In his most recent start, the 36-year-old tossed seven scoreless against the Washington Nationals, surrendering just four hits in the process. 

In Wheeler's last two home appearances, he's given up just two earned runs. Milwaukee will have a real task generating any offense against one of the best starters in the National League. 

💣 Brewers vs. Phillies home run prediction

Kyle Schwarber (+284)

Schwarber only has one home run in his last six games, but the underlying metrics are very promising. The slugger has a 41.7% hard-hit rate during that span, and a ridiculous 75% fly ball rate. We're talking about the MLB's home run leader, who has already gone deep 45 times this season. 

With him putting the ball in the air so frequently, Schwarber is worth a look tonight against May, who has allowed 2.03 HR/9 on the road since joining the Brewers. The Milwaukee bullpen is also consistently allowing hard contact, giving Schwarber another path to leaving the yard. 

📊 Live Brewers vs. Phillies odds

📈 Brewers vs. Phillies betting trends

🚑 Brewers vs. Phillies injuries

📺 How to watch Brewers vs. Phillies

• Date: Tuesday, Sept. 22
• First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia)
• TV: Local
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Brewers starter: Dustin May (7-9, 4.61 ERA)
• Phillies starter: Zack Wheeler (13-5, 2.99 ERA)