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MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds for Monday, Sept. 21

My best home run predictions today break down the best HR bets for Monday's MLB slate.

Matt MacKay

Last Updated: September 21, 2026 1:50 PM EDT • 3 minute read

Pictured: Blue Jays third baseman Kazuma Okamoto (7) hits a three-run homer as we break down our home run predictions. Photo by John E. Sokolowski / Imagn Images.

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MLB has a small, three-game slate set for Monday, meaning I've got to dig deep for my home run predictions today. It's been a five-day slump, so there is nowhere to go but up, with three players who profile well for tonight's matchups.

Kazuma Okamoto has been one of the most consistent players to cash my MLB home run picks this season. I'm going to back the Blue Jays' home run leader (33) again, as he faces off against Shane Baz, who has surrendered four home runs across his previous three starts for the Orioles.

⚾ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Sept. 21

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

💣 Home run pick	💵 Bet size	📝 Notes
Kazuma Okamoto to homer (+440 via FanDuel)	0.25 units to win 1.1 units	Okamoto has hit 23 of 33 home runs against right-handed pitching in 2026.
Daylen Lile to homer (+525 via bet365)	0.25 units to win 1.31 units	Lile has logged 2 home runs in his last 5 contests.
Drew Gilbert to homer (+950 via Caesars)	0.25 units to win 2.37 units	Gilbert has hit all 6 of his home runs at Oracle Park against right-handed pitching.

Total wagered: 0.75 units | Max profit: +4.78 units

💣 Best home run predictions & odds today

Home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+440)

Okamoto is a menace at the plate, mashing 23 of his 33 home runs against right-handed pitchers this season. Toronto's 3B has not hit a home run in five straight appearances, but now he'll draw a great matchup against Baz.

The Orioles' right-handed starter is giving up 90.3 mph on avg. exit velo (11th percentile) and ranks in the 20th percentile for hard-hit percentage allowed (42.0) in 2026.

Okamoto sits 89th percentile in barrel percentage (13.3) and in the 78th percentile for xSLG (.448) this year.

Go to FanDuel and bet Okamoto's home run prop at +440 odds.

Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
Where to watch: ESPN Unlimited/MLB.TV

📡 SBR Edge: September to Remember

Okamoto has hit five home runs in September, all of which came during a seven-game stretch.

Home run pick: Daylen Lile (+525)

The Nationals have a lot of hitting talent in their lineup, and Lile is certainly one of them, entering tonight's road game in Detroit with 2 home runs across his previous 5 appearances. Lile faces Keider Montero, who has allowed 3 home runs in his past 3 starts for the Tigers, including 2 in his previous start at Comerica Park.

The forecast is calling for wind blowing out into right field at 12.2 mph. Lile's a left-handed hitter and is facing Montero, a righty, which means his hits will carry into this area of the outfield.

Lile has also recorded 21 of 22 home runs against right-handed pitching this season. It's a favorable matchup for the Nationals' LF, batting second in the lineup tonight.

bet365 offers the best line on Lile's home run prop at +525 odds.

Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: MLB.TV

Home run pick: Drew Gilbert (+950)

Oracle Park is normally among the toughest ballparks to hit a home run, but tonight, the forecast calls for 15 mph winds blowing out. This gives a big boost to Gilbert, who is a left-handed hitter going against the Twins' right-handed starter, Zebby Matthews.

Gilbert has hit all 6 of his home runs at Oracle Park against right-handed pitchers this season. In fact, all 10 of Gilbert's home runs have been against righties in 2026.

The Giants' leadoff hitter also has hit 2 of his 10 home runs in September. Matthews has allowed 4 home runs in his last 3 starts.

Caesars is offering the best odds on Gilbert's home run prop at +950 odds.

Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
Where to watch: MLB.TV

💥 More home run picks today

Looking for more? Dive into Corey Scott's Blue Jays vs. Orioles prediction or Phil Wood's Twins vs. Giants prediction.

🚀 Best home run parlay picks today

💵 Best MLB home run parlay today

Kazuma Okamoto to homer
Daylen Lile to homer
Drew Gilbert to homer

Best odds: +32975 (0.1 units to win 32.9 units)

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Written by:
Matt MacKay

Matt MacKay has handicapped golf, the NFL, NCAAF, and NHL since joining the sports betting industry as a writer in 2020. He’s worked for several prominent sites, recently expanding his coverage to include sports betting news and the regulatory industry. Bringing a background in communications and writing, earning a Masters Degree in Organizational Communication from Ohio University, Matt has co-hosted a fantasy football and sports betting podcast, while continuously refining his handicapping methods. This includes identifying recent trends, head-to-head statistics, and comparing individual and team strengths and weaknesses to accurately predict the outcome in certain betting markets before a game or event. He’s a daily bettor and tends to wager on FanDuel, with DraftKings and Hard Rock Bet as preferred sports betting app alternatives. An avid researcher, writer, editor, and podcaster, Matt is eager to dig into matchups to offer readers and subscribers value on his picks. He’s a big proponent of building bankroll by avoiding poor betting habits and tendencies, like chasing losses, placing too many wagers, and managing bankroll. His worst beats to date both came on two separate NFL parlays, losing due to Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown dropping passes. NRFIs have quickly become one of Matt’s favorite betting markets, recently diving into MLB game props.