Twins vs. Giants Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Monday, Sept. 21

Two teams eliminated from playoff contention battle tonight, and my best Twins vs. Giants prediction focuses on the Twins' offense taking advantage of a pitcher whose ERA has ballooned over the last month and a half. The Giants turn to starter Blade Tidwell, and the Twins turn to Zebby Matthews.

I also have two additional MLB picks, including a player prop, ahead of tonight's first pitch from Oracle Park in San Francisco at 9:45 p.m. ET (MLB.TV). The Twins are a -114 betting favorite.

⚾ Twins vs. Giants picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds;

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🏆 Who will win Twins vs. Giants?

I'm taking the Twins to win this one 8-5. The Twins are the 10th-highest-scoring team in the MLB, and tonight they face a starter who has seen his ERA swell from 2.78 on Aug. 10 to 4.56 today.

Score prediction: Twins 8 Giants 5

💰 Twins vs. Giants prediction & best bet

Twins ML (-120)

Since becoming a starter in August, Tidwell has struggled. He's allowed multiple earned runs in six of his eight starts, giving up at least four of them on three occasions. He's also had issues with accuracy, walking five batters in 5.0 innings or fewer twice since mid-August.

Matthews has been inconsistent, but the good has generally outweighed the bad. He's allowed one or fewer earned runs in four of his last six starts, and he just pitched 6.0 shutout innings against the Yankees. With the Giants scoring the seventh-fewest runs in the league, Matthews shouldn't struggle in this start.

🔥 Best Twins vs. Giants player prop bet

Blade Tidwell Under 3.5 strikeouts (+123)

This season, Tidwell has struck out 42 batters in 53.1 innings. He's struck out four or fewer batters in five of his eight starts, ringing up three or fewer batters three times. While he just pitched 6.2 innings in his last start, he only struck out four batters. It was also the first time he reached 6.0 innings in a game this season. 

The Twins enter tonight's game with the eighth-fewest in the league. With no prior history against this top-10 scoring offense, I believe Tidwell will get chased early enough that he won't hit this seemingly low total.

💣 Twins vs. Giants home run prediction

Brooks Lee to hit a home run (+700)

Tidwell has the 29th-worst barrel rate of all qualifying pitchers, which is why I'm backing a Twin here. He's allowed five home runs in his last four starts. All of them were allowed at Oracle Park, despite the ballpark being the fourth-most pitcher-friendly one this season.

Lee has hit 23 home runs this season, but he only has one in September. However, 16 of his 23 home runs are on the road, and his .852 OPS in away games is the highest among all Twins players who have played in at least 20 road matchups.

📊 Live Twins vs. Giants odds

The Twins opened at -118 on the moneyline, and despite 73% of the handle backing the Giants to win, the Twins have become larger favorites at almost every major sportsbook. It seems oddsmakers aren't very concerned with public sentiment ahead of this game, but I don't expect this price to ever reach -130. As for the total, the public is heavily backing the Over, but the number hasn't changed since opening at 8. I'd try to get Over 8.5 for +100 or better, rather than taking a bigger risk on Over 8.

📈 Twins vs. Giants betting trends

🚑 Twins vs. Giants injuries

📺 How to watch Twins vs. Giants

• Date: Monday, Sept. 21
• First pitch: 9:45 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Oracle Park (San Francisco)
• TV: Local
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Twins starter: Zebby Matthews (9-10, 4.74 ERA)
• Giants starter: Blade Tidwell (1-2, 4.56 ERA)