Blue Jays vs. Orioles Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds & Best Bets for Monday, Sept. 21

The Blue Jays and the Orioles are three and five games out of the final AL Wild Card spot, respectively. My Blue Jays vs. Orioles prediction expects Toronto to widen its lead over Baltimore in the standings with Trey Yesavage and Shane Baz squaring off today.

My MLB picks include Blue Jays ML (-104), Brett Bateman Over 1.5 total bases (+155), and Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 home runs (+475). First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore is set for 6:35 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited, MLB.TV), with the Orioles listed as a -112 betting favorite.

⚾ Blue Jays vs. Orioles picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

Total wagered: 3.26 units | Max profit: +4.5 units

🏆 Who will win Blue Jays vs. Orioles?

I like the Blue Jays to beat the Orioles 5-4 today in Baltimore. Toronto has won six of the 10 meetings between these teams this season, and Yesavage is returning from the IL as the Blue Jays make a final postseason push. I expect Toronto's dominance over Baltimore to continue today after winning the last two head-to-head series.

Score prediction: Blue Jays 5, Orioles 4

💰 Blue Jays vs. Orioles prediction & best bet

Blue Jays ML (-104 via FanDuel)

While Yesavage will reportedly be on a pitch count, he should still set the Blue Jays up for success.

Yesavage has allowed just one ER across his last 8 2/3 innings, while Toronto has had success against Baz this season. It lit him up for five runs on seven hits and a walk in 5 2/3 innings in their last meeting, and the Orioles' bullpen has collectively allowed two or more ER against the Blue Jays in each of their last three meetings.

Blue Jays ML (-104) is the best line available among the top MLB betting sites.

🔥 Best Blue Jays vs. Orioles player prop bet

Brett Bateman Over 1.5 total bases (+155 via BetMGM)

Not only has Bateman gone over this line in six of his last 10 games, but he has a favorable pitching matchup today. Baz is allowing left-handed hitters to slash .281/.350/.444, and Bateman is slashing .355/.439/.462 against right-handed pitching.

Bateman will also likely lead off for the Blue Jays, who are playing on the road, so we'll have the maximum amount of at-bats in this game to hit the Over (barring an injury or a pinch-runner). Bateman Over 1.5 total bases (+155 via BetMGM) is the best line available among the top sports betting sites.

💣 Blue Jays vs. Orioles home run prediction

Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 home runs (+475 via BetRivers)

Baz throws fastballs 58% of the time, which shouldn't be a problem for Okamoto, as that's been his best pitch type to hit for power this season. Okamoto has a .495 expected slugging percentage against fastballs, and each of his five home runs in September has come against that pitch type.

The Blue Jays third baseman ranks in the 89th percentile in barrel rate (13.3%), while Baz has allowed at least one home run in each of his last three starts. Okamoto Over 0.5 home runs (+475 via BetRivers) is the best line available among the top sports betting apps.

📊 Live Blue Jays vs. Orioles odds

The most important line movement to track is at market-making books that don't limit winning bettors.

At Circa, Blue Jays ML opened at -107 and Orioles ML at -113. Their respective lines are now -101 and -109, as Circa has moved to a dime line closer to first pitch. The opening no-vig line was +102.8/-102.8, while the live no-vig line is +103.9/-103.9, so there's no significant movement to report.

🚑 Blue Jays vs. Orioles injuries

📺 How to watch Blue Jays vs. Orioles

• Date: Monday, Sept. 21
• First pitch: 6:35 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Oriole Park at Camden Yards (Baltimore)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited, MLB.TV
• Blue Jays starter: Trey Yesavage (5-5, 3.65 ERA)
• Orioles starter: Shane Baz (6-15, 4.11 ERA)