Orioles vs. Rangers Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Friday, Aug. 7
Two teams separated by one game in the AL Wild Card race begin a pivotal three-game series from Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas, as the Rangers host the Orioles. My Orioles vs Rangers prediction backs the home favorite to win the series opener, as Shane Baz has been a betting nightmare for backers.
That means I am also expecting a big day on the mound from Nathan Eovaldi, while explaining why a Rangers slugger is a great bet to go deep with the last of my MLB picks. First pitch is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET (Apple TV), and the Rangers are a -145 betting favorite.
⚾ Orioles vs. Rangers picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Rangers ML (-139 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.72u | As recently as 2 weeks ago, the Rangers ranked among the top 2 in several key statistics. |
| Nathan Eovaldi to record the win (+150 via bet365) | 1u → 1.5u | The Orioles' lineup (outside of Alonso and Henderson) struggles on the road vs. right-handed pitching. |
| Brandon Nimmo to homer (+589 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.47u | Nimmo has homered in 2 of his last 4 games. |
Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.69 units
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🏆 Who will win Orioles vs. Rangers?
Texas righted the ship with back-to-back wins to end its series against San Francisco, and I expect it to bring that momentum into this series opener against Baltimore.
Score prediction: Rangers 5, Orioles 3
💰 Orioles vs. Rangers prediction & best bet
Rangers ML (-139)
It wasn’t long ago that Texas was rolling through July on the strength of an offensive breakout. As recently as two weeks ago, the Rangers ranked second in the AL in July in runs per game, first in batting average, first in average with runners in scoring position, tied for second in home runs, and first in OPS.
The Rangers have inflated their record against teams with a losing record, and another win in that split tonight would not only move them to nine games over .500 in that split, but to a .500 record overall on the season.
📡 SBR Edge: Moneyline nightmare
Among all starting pitchers, Shane Baz has been the worst to back on the moneyline all season, as his 6-16 team record in his starts has resulted in a -50.5% ROI and -$1,110 in losses for his backers.
🔥 Best Orioles vs. Rangers player prop bet
Nathan Eovaldi to record the win (+150)
Shane Baz’s poor track record from a betting perspective has me excited to back Nathan Eovaldi’s chances to record the win at plus-money odds.
Though Eovaldi recorded the win in just two of five July starts, he has won five of his last seven decisions overall. Eovaldi is coming off a blow-up start against the Astros in which he tied a season-high with six earned runs allowed. He also allowed six runs in an April 1 road start against the Orioles, but I’m giving him a pass for that being just his second start.
The righty will have to carefully navigate Baltimore’s top two bats, as Gunnar Henderson and Pete Alonso are a combined 10-for-17 against him. But I have confidence he will limit the rest of the lineup, which ranks 26th in wRC+ and 29th in BABIP collectively in road games against right-handed pitching since the start of July.
💣 Orioles vs. Rangers home run prediction
Brandon Nimmo to homer (+589)
Even though he has not heated up yet, the return of Corey Seager off the IL lengthens the Rangers lineup and provides protection for their other key sluggers.
Brandon Nimmo is 1-for-3 in a small sample size against Shane Baz, and no current Rangers hitter has homered off the righty. I expect that to change tonight given that Baz has allowed six of his nine home runs on the road.
These odds are longer than what they would normally be given that Baz has not allowed a home run in 34 ⅓ innings. But it’s still great value compared to the +475 odds (carrying a 17.39% implied probability) at bet365, as the right fielder has homered in two of his last four.
🚀 Orioles vs. Rangers same-game parlay
The three legs of this same-game parlay pair nicely together in increasing Texas’ chances of winning outright. If Texas wins, Eovaldi has a great chance to earn the victory as the Rangers jump out to a lead on Baz. And the -220 odds for Nimmo to record a hit are a steal when considering he has produced four multi-hit games in five starts this month.
💵 Orioles vs. Rangers SGP picks
- Rangers ML
- Nathan Eovaldi to record the win
- Brandon Nimmo to record 1+ hits
Best odds: +518 via DraftKings
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 216-339-1 | +50.73 units ✅ | 14.5% ✅ |
| Game picks | 84-64-1 | +13.73 units ✅ | 7.7% ✅ |
| Player props | 132-275 | +37 units ✅ | 18.4% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting Orioles vs. Rangers: MLB strategy
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
Normally I make the delineation between a moneyline and runline wager when a team’s odds to win outright are longer than -160 (61.54% implied odds). But that is not the case with Texas tonight, as its -139 moneyline odds are more than manageable, especially against an Orioles team that I expect to fall to .500 (13-13) against the AL West this season. Baltimore also has played one-run games 23.5% of the time, making me a little scared to lay the -1.5 runs.
📊 Live Orioles vs. Rangers odds
📈 Orioles vs. Rangers betting trends
| Orioles | Statistic | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| 56-59 | W-L record | 57-58 |
| 59-56 | Run line record | 54-61 |
| 59-52 | O/U record | 62-49 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 games | 4-6 |
| 4.21 | Team ERA | 4.29 |
| .234 | Team batting avg. | .245 |
| .711 | OPS | .720 |
🚑 Orioles vs. Rangers injuries
📺 How to watch Orioles vs. Rangers
- Date: Friday, Aug. 7
- First pitch: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Globe Life Field (Arlington, Texas)
- TV: Apple TV
- Orioles starter: Shane Baz (4-10, 3.86 ERA)
- Rangers starter: Nathan Eovaldi (10-9, 4.31 ERA)
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