⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Wednesday, April 8
We have a jam-packed day of baseball action, with the first game being played at 12:35 p.m. ET and the last starting at 7:40 p.m. ET, and my home run predictions today should keep you locked in and invested for almost the entire day.
My first pick comes from that early game, as I'm backing a player who looks to help his team keep up its hot start to the season. Speaking of hot starts, I then turn my attention to one of the best hitters in the league so far.
Finally, I direct my attention to the evening games to close out the day. I've also combined the four to form a parlay at absurd +105326 odds, which means you'd make over $10,500 on a $10 bet. Should we just get rich today?
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds April 8
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe home run (+750 via bet365) | 0.33u β 2.81u | Expected to rebound from some rough performances |
| Christian Walker home run (+390 via FanDuel) | 0.33u β 1.62u | Homered in three of last four games |
| Eugenio Suarez home run (+450 via bet365) | 0.33u β 1.82u | Looks a bit lost at plate but still hitting the ball hard |
| Ben Rice home run (+425 via bet365) | 0.33u β 1.73u | Has the fourth-highest average exit velocity in baseball |
Total wagered: 1.33 units | Max profit: 6.65 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Christian Walker to hit a home run (+390)
Christian Walker homered last night to make it three bombs in his last four games. He's taken full advantage of hitter-friendly ballparks during the last week, and his Houston Astros close out their series in Colorado this afternoon.
The first baseman owns a 92nd percentile hard-hit rate and 94th percentile barrel rate.
Walker has one of the best home run projections today, and based on it, we're getting roughly 27% +EV on this bet. I would play this to around +350 or +340, so we still have some wiggle room before this price gets that short.
📡 SBR Edge: Riding the hot hand (or in this case, hot bat)
Sometimes, you have to simply back the guy who can't stop hitting home runs, and that's what we're doing today with Walker. Generally, the odds shorten to a brutal point when this is the case, but we're still getting a great price here.
π₯ More home run picks today
Brandon Lowe to hit a home run (+750)
Brandon Lowe has popped three homers so far this year, but his batted-ball data isn't especially impressive. He owns just a third-percentile average exit velocity, and a lot of his other stats based on quality of contact are also sub-par.
However, this is a player who's historically hit the ball pretty hard, and one thing I really like about Lowe's approach is the fact that he's taking plenty of walks and striking out at a much lower clip than ever before. That level of patience will help him wait for his pitch and hit more home runs, even if his average exit velocity isn't quite what we're accustomed to.
Based on Lowe's home run projection, this is an obscene price. Most of our other best sports betting sites are hovering around +500 (which is still very much playable at better than 30% +EV), so if you have an account at bet365, take advantage of this.
Ben Rice to hit a home run (+425)
I didn't think Ben Rice's batted-ball data could improve much from last season, but he looks even better so far this season. He is absolutely annihilating the baseball, and he's taking just as many walks as he's suffering strikeouts.
Rice already has three home runs, and his projections today look promising for him to add to that total. Based on these +425 odds, we're getting right around 25% +EV on Rice to hit a home run. I also like the projection for Rice's teammate, Aaron Judge, but you'll be betting into far shorter odds.
π Best home run parlay picks today
I'm parlaying my four home run bets together and I'm putting $10 on them (or 0.08 units). The most important thing to remember with these home run parlays is to limit your wager size. I know it may seem enticing to put more money on them and make a small fortune, but these +105326 odds represent just a 0.09% implied probability that this hits.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Brandon Lowe (+750)
- Christian Walker (+350)
- Eugenio Suarez (+425)
- Ben Rice (+425)
Best odds: +105326 via bet365 (0.08u -> 84.34u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-69 | -12.33 units β | -28% β |
| Home run picks | 5-30 | -3.01 units β | -27.3% β |
| Parlays | 1-15 | -0.10 units β | -6.8% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I wager 0.33 units ($42) on my of home run bets that feature a player with at least one home run projection of 0.3 or better, and on odds that provide us with 25% +EV or better.
I've begun to add a second projection model into my process, and I'll continue to tinker with that as the season progresses. The more information you have, the better, but you also don't want to get buried in numbers and forget what you know about the sport. That's something I'm still working through even now after years of finding success with baseball betting.
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