⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Monday, April 13
It's a fresh week, and despite a smaller slate on Monday, we still have three home run predictions today.
We're taking advantage of some promising pitching matchups for our trio of sluggers, as two lefties look to continue to add to their home run total while one of the preseason favorites to lead the league in long balls tries to jumpstart his season.
I've parlayed the three bets for a +15976 lotto ticket, as we look to start the week on a high note.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds April 13
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso home run (+400 via bet365) | 0.33u β1.65u | Absolutely annihilating the baseball despite lack of HRs |
| Brandon Lowe home run (+540 via FanDuel) | 0.2u β 1.28u | Already up to five homers this season |
| Corey Seager home run (+410 via DraftKings) | 0.33u β 1.68u | Has plus pitching matchup in homer-friendly ballpark |
Total wagered: 0.87 units | Max profit: 3.74 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Corey Seager home run (+410)
Corey Seager's numbers are down across the board, but he's still managed four home runs so far and he's hitting the ball plenty hard. He owns an 83rd percentile average exit velocity and 88th percentile barrel rate.
Tonight, Seager and the Rangers take on Luis Severino, who gave up 10 home runs at home last season compared to only six on the road in nearly an identical number of innings. Seager's projections reflect that promising matchup today, and we're getting better than 28% +EV based on this price. I'd play this to odds as short as +360.
📡 SBR Edge: Make adjustments if something isn't working
I made nine home run bets on Friday, and they were all very solid, +EV picks. They went 0-9 (three of them hit the very next day), and in general, home run bets haven't been great for me. So I've tweaked my process a bit to tighten things up. At the very least, this will limit my exposure going forward.
π₯ More home run picks today
Pete Alonso home run (+400)
Pete Alonso is off to an ice-cold start at the plate this season, with only one homer in 15 games. However, he's still annihilating the baseball, as he owns a 97th percentile average exit velocity and a 94th percentile hard-hit rate.
There's a bit of a launch-angle issue going on, but I imagine he'll correct that sooner rather than later.
Today, Alonso and the Orioles face Ryne Nelson, who's giving up homers for fun this season. Nelson gives up a ton of hard contact, doesn't get many ground balls, and will pitch today in hitter-friendly Camden Yards. This is a matchup that Alonso should absolutely exploit.
π Best home run parlay picks today
I'm parlaying my three home run bets together and I'm putting $10 on them (or 0.08 units). The most important thing to remember with these home run parlays is to limit your wager size. I know it may seem enticing to put more money on them because you see the potential profit, but these +15976 odds represent just a 0.62% implied probability that this hits. Would you gamble a bunch of money on anything in life that has less than a 1% chance of happening?
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Pete Alonso (+398)
- Brandon Lowe (+533)
- Corey Seager (+410)
Best odds: +15976 via DraftKings (0.08u -> 12.86u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-94 | -21.5 units β | -36.3% β |
| Home run picks | 5-43 | -7.30 units β | -47.7% β |
| Parlays | 1-19 | -0.69 units β | -35.9% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I wager 0.33 units ($42) on my of home run bets that meet multiple criteria. First, the average projection across two models needs to be at least 0.275. Second, the bet needs to be at least 25% +EV. Third, I would like to see either a plus pitching matchup or the game being played at a hitter-friendly ballpark, or, preferably, both.
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