MLB Prop Picks & Best Bets: Will Ohtani Add to MLB HR Lead?
Four of Wednesday’s Major League Baseball games are between teams that are .500 or better. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Wednesday based on the best MLB odds.
Shohei Ohtani keeps finding ways to utilize his unique skill set to separate himself from every other baseball player on planet Earth. He is truly a unicorn.
On Tuesday, Ohtani hit two home runs and struck out 10 batters, becoming the first player to reach base four-plus times, hit two-plus home runs, and strike out 10-plus batters since 1890, per OptaStats.
What will Ohtani do for an encore Wednesday?
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Wednesday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Wednesday’s MLB schedule and odds
- Cincinnati Reds (+140) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-165)
- San Diego Padres (-155) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+135)
- San Francisco Giants (+100) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-120)
- Miami Marlins (-130) vs. Boston Red Sox (+110)
- Milwaukee Brewers (+130) vs. New York Mets (-150)
- Houston Astros (+100) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-120)
- Detroit Tigers (+195) vs. Texas Rangers (-230)
- Philadelphia Phillies (-125) vs. Chicago Cubs (+105)
- Cleveland Guardians (-125) vs. Kansas City Royals (+105)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-210) vs. Colorado Rockies (+180)
- Chicago White Sox (+105) vs. Los Angeles Angels (-125)
- Tampa Bay Rays (-150) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+130)
- New York Yankees (-150) vs. Oakland Athletics (+130)
Wednesday’s MLB best bets
- Player prop: Logan Gilbert not to record win (-149 via Caesars) vs. Nationals ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Austin Hays Over 0.5 runs scored (+105 via DraftKings) vs. Reds ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run (+310 via FanDuel) vs. White Sox ⭐⭐⭐
- Upset: Athletics (+136 via FanDuel) vs. Yankees ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Wednesday’s MLB prop picks
Player prop: Logan Gilbert not to record a win vs. Nationals (-149 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
Logan Gilbert has had rough luck when pitching at home this season. Gilbert has won just one of six home starts compared to four of his nine road starts, despite his ERA, WHIP, OBA, K/9 rate, and GO/AO all being better at home. However, he has not been good in day starts, posting an ERA nearly two runs higher than when he toes the rubber at night, and his OBA goes from .186 at night to .294 in starts during the day.
The Washington Nationals are 13 games under .500 against left-handed starting pitchers but have fared much better against righties, winning 23 of 50 games. The Seattle Mariners rank 17th in wRC+ and 27th in wOBA at home against left-handed pitchers this season. That has us confident the Nationals can stay close long enough not to allow Gilbert to walk out with a victory despite the Mariners having steep moneyline odds.
Caesars offers slightly better value for Gilbert to not record a win compared to the prices found at DraftKings (-150) and our other best sports betting apps.
Player prop: Austin Hays Over 0.5 runs scored vs. Reds (+105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Luke Weaver is one of two in the rotation with a negative WAR, a WHIP of 1.59 or higher, and an ERA north of 6.80. He has not earned a victory in eight consecutive starts and has allowed four-plus runs in half of those. Given that he has allowed a .329 OBA to right-handed batters and has induced nearly three times fewer ground-ball outs versus fly-ball outs in June, we felt compelled to back the Baltimore Orioles’ best right-handed bat in this matchup.
Austin Hays ranks in the 82nd percentile in xSLG and 73rd in barrels. He has hit lead-off 16 times compared to fifth or lower 39 times, so this would be a more confident four-star play if he were slotted first once again, given that he has the highest on-base percentage and OPS when he hits lead-off compared to any other spot in the batting order.
DraftKings is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering plus-money odds for this wager, as it's as high as -120 at FanDuel.
Player prop: Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run vs. White Sox (+310 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Shohei Ohtani has hit three home runs in the two games of the team’s series against the Chicago White Sox, and he leads MLB in OPS, slugging, home runs, and RBIs. Ohtani’s three home runs also brought his total to his 12 in the previous 17 games, and his 13 home runs in June are already tied for the most in that month in franchise history, per StatsCentre.
We love Ohtani’s odds to go deep against Chicago White Sox righty Lucas Giolito, whose 1.4 HR/9 rate is on pace to be his worst since 2017. It is especially concerning that his home run rate is so high this early, considering the warmest summer months are ahead. In addition, Giolito’s 41.7% hard-hit rate is his worst since his rookie year in 2016, and he has never had a GB/FB ratio worse than 0.51 before this season.
Ohtani is as low as +280 to homer at DraftKings, so FanDuel provides great value in comparison.
Wednesday’s MLB game picks
Upset: Athletics ML vs. Yankees (+136 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The New York Yankees continue to struggle without Aaron Judge, going 8-11 since he injured his toe on June 3. In that span, the Yankees rank dead-last in the majors in wRC+ (67), BABIP (.227), and wOBA (.266) and have averaged just three runs per game. The offensive limitations are also a concern with Domingo German on the mound, who, per Katie Sharp, made history of the wrong kind over his last two starts as the only Yankees pitcher to allow 17-plus runs and face fewer than 40 batters in any two-game span.
New York is 5-14 in its last 19 games in Oakland, and considering it has lost each of German’s last four road starts against teams with a losing record, backing the porous Oakland Athletics on the moneyline suddenly does not look so bad.
WynnBet is the only other sportsbook offering better than +130 odds (+135), so FanDuel becomes our go-to shop to back the underdogs.
MLB best bets made 6/28/2023 at 7:02 a.m. ET.
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
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Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
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