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MLB Prop Picks & Best Bets: Are Padres in for Offensive Explosion?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: June 10, 2023 8:42 AM EDT • 4 min 14 sec read.

Rare for a Saturday, 11 of today’s 15 Major League Baseball games are played in the afternoon window. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday based on the best MLB odds.

Nine of Friday's 15 games were decided by one run yesterday, with two finishing in extra innings. One of those was the Minnesota Twins’ 3-2 victory in 10 innings over the Toronto Blue Jays. Minnesota pulled even at .500 after entering the day as the first division leader under .500 this late in the season since 2008.

Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Saturday’s MLB schedule and odds

(Odds via DraftKings)

  • Arizona Diamondbacks (-130) vs. Detroit Tigers (+110)
  • Miami Marlins (-120) vs. Chicago White Sox (+100)
  • Cincinnati Reds (+140) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-165)
  • Minnesota Twins (OFF) vs. Toronto Blue Jays 
  • San Diego Padres (-135) vs. Colorado Rockies (+115)
  • Kansas City Royals (+135) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-155)
  • New York Mets (-130) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+110)
  • Los Angeles Dodgers (-110) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-110)
  • Texas Rangers (-110) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-110)
  • Washington Nationals (+155) vs. Atlanta Braves (-180)
  • Oakland Athletics (+155) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-180)
  • Houston Astros (+115) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-135)
  • Chicago Cubs (OFF) vs. San Francisco Giants 
  • Boston Red Sox (+100) vs. New York Yankees (-120)
  • Seattle Mariners (+125) vs. Los Angeles Angels (-145)

Saturday’s MLB best bets

  • Player prop: Max Muncy Under 0.5  hits (+125 via DraftKings) vs. Phillies ⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Johan Oviedo Under 2.5 earned runs (-130 via DraftKings) vs. Mets ⭐⭐p
  • Player prop: Alex Verdugo Over 1.5 total bases (+120 via DraftKings) vs. Yankees ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Team total: Padres team total Over 6.5 runs (-105 via PointsBet) vs. Rockies ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Saturday’s MLB prop picks

Player prop: Max Muncy Under 0.5 hits vs. Phillies (+125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

While other players’ batting averages around the league have risen due to the ban in shifts (i.e., teammate Freddie Freeman), Max Muncy is still stuck batting .198 and is flirting with the danger of finishing under the Mendoza Line for the third time in four seasons.

Philadelphia Phillies starter Aaron Nola has owned Muncy in their head-to-head meetings, as Muncy is just 1-for-15 with eight of the 14 outs coming via strikeout. Muncy has three hits in his last 29 at-bats, but we are making this a three-star play considering he has spread those hits out, hitting safely in three of eight games. We are expecting Nola to complete 6-plus innings for the 11th consecutive start, thus limiting Muncy’s chances of getting hits off the Phillies bullpen.

PointsBet is least confident in Muncy going hitless, as Caesars and DraftKings offer +113 and +125 odds, respectively.

Player prop: Johan Oviedo Under 2.5 earned runs vs. Mets (-130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

The New York Mets were dealt a gut punch earlier this week when they surrendered three-run leads in three consecutive games while being swept by the Atlanta Braves. And while the Mets scored 19 runs over the three games, they will be without their biggest bat, Pete Alonso, who was placed in the injured list due to a bone bruise in his wrist.

Alonso is the only Mets hitter with a wOBA of higher than .410 and a wRC+ of 160 or higher in road games this year. And youngster Francisco Alvarez is the only other hitter who entered Friday slugging better than .560 away from home. One cannot expect Starling Marte to step up in Alonso’s absence, as his .632 OPS entering Friday was the 12th-worst in baseball.

Thus, Pittsburgh Pirates starter Johan Oviedo should take advantage of a lineup that struggles to hit for power without Alonso. As it is, Oviedo has not allowed a home run in 17 consecutive innings, so a Mets lineup that ranks 27th in BABIP should not string together too many rallies.

We are making this wager at DraftKings, the only one of our best sports betting sites where the juice for the Under is capped at -130.

Player prop: Alex Verdugo Over 1.5 total bases vs. Yankees (+120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Boston Red Sox outfielder Alex Verdugo is slashing .417/.462/.917 in 12 at-bats against New York Yankees starter Domingo German, and his 1.378 OPS in that span is the highest for any batter against an opposing pitcher on Saturday's slate (min. 10 AB).

Verdugo leads all Red Sox hitters by far in WAR (2.4, next closest is 1.4), and he ranks second among all qualified hitters on the team with a .814 OPS. In addition, he is in his better-hitting split, given that his OPS is .211 points higher against righties than lefties this season. 

This is a confident four-star play, as Verdugo slashed .306/.359/.528 in nine games at Yankee Stadium last year, and four or his last six hits this year have gone for extra bases.

FanDuel and Caesars are two of the only best sportsbooks offering a total bases prop, but DraftKings trumps their odds as they are at +100 and +111, respectively.

Saturday’s MLB game picks

Team total: Padres team total Over 6.5 vs. Rockies (-105 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Colorado Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland has allowed a .279/.367/.504 slash line in 147 combined at-bats to opposing San Diego Padres hitters. And breaking those numbers down on an individual level is more troubling, as five Padres (Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis, Trent Grisham, Jake Cronenworth, and Manny Machado) all have an OPS of .856 or higher (min. 10 ABs) against the lefty. Those five players have combined for extra-base hits in 16.5% of their at-bats against Freeland, so we are not concerned that he has pitched to a more than respectable 3.38 ERA at Coors Field this year.

The Over has cashed in five of the previous six meetings in Colorado between these teams, so even this high total does not make us lose confidence in San Diego’s ability to score runs. PointsBet is one of the only best live betting sites that does not have the odds juiced to the Over, compared to FanDuel which is at -120 odds for San Diego to score 7-plus runs.

MLB best bets made 6/10/2023 at 6:41 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.