MLB Player Props & Best Bets Today: Will Braves Finish Sweep of Mets?
All Major League Baseball teams except the St. Louis Cardinals and Kansas City Royals are in action to conclude another exciting week. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Sunday based on the best MLB odds from our best sports betting apps.
Congratulations to the Texas Rangers, who have reached the 70-win mark faster than any other team in franchise history (117 games). But despite that record-setting performance, they still have just a narrow 2.5-game lead over the Houston Astros in the AL West, which is one of three divisions separated by fewer than three games entering Sunday.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Sunday (odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our World Series odds.
Sunday’s MLB schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Detroit Tigers (+114) vs. Boston Red Sox (-135)
- Oakland Athletics (+114) vs. Washington Nationals (-135)
- Cincinnati Reds (+114) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Game 1 (-135)
- Cincinnati Reds (-102) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Game 2 (-118)
- Minnesota Twins (-102) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-118)
- Chicago Cubs (+110) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-130)
- Cleveland Guardians (+164) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-198)
- New York Yankees (-130) vs. Miami Marlins (+110)
- Los Angeles Angels (+130) vs. Houston Astros (-155)
- Milwaukee Brewers (-125) vs. Chicago White Sox (+105)
- Texas Rangers (+120) vs. San Francisco Giants (-135)
- Colorado Rockies (+285) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-360)
- San Diego Padres (-135) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+114)
- Baltimore Orioles (-112) vs. Seattle Mariners (-108)
- Atlanta Braves (-135) vs. New York Mets (+114)
Sunday’s MLB best bets
- Player prop: Sonny Gray Over 2.5 earned runs (-125 via bet365) vs. Phillies ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Eury Perez Over 6.5 strikeouts (+110 via DraftKings) vs. Yankees ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Matt Chapman Under 0.5 hits (+180 via bet365) vs. Cubs ⭐⭐⭐
- Moneyline: Braves vs. Mets (-130 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Sunday’s MLB prop picks
Player prop: Sonny Gray Over 2.5 earned runs vs. Phillies (-125 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Minnesota Twins righty Sonny Gray has made four consecutive quality starts and, after his last appearance, led the majors with 21 starts allowing three or fewer runs. And even though Gray has 18 strikeouts over his previous 13 innings, we still view him as a pitcher due for a late-season slide, especially because his ERA is an underwhelming 4.34 over his last nine starts, despite making three starts against bottom-three offenses (Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers) in that span.
Now Gray faces a Philadelphia Phillies lineup that ranks top-11 in runs scored this season but has scored the third-most runs of any MLB team in August. The Phillies also have the ninth-lowest strikeout rate (20.8%) this month, which plays well against a strikeout pitcher like Gray. Gray has allowed a .311 BABIP and has a 3.04 BB/9 rate this year, the worst among all Twins pitchers who have made three-plus starts.
DraftKings offers the same -125 odds for this wager, while Caesars is slightly higher at -131.
Player prop: Eury Perez Over 6.5 strikeouts vs. Yankees (+110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Eury Perez's demotion to the minor league after a July 6 start had nothing to do with his ineffectiveness at the big league level and everything to do with the Miami Marlins trying to limit his innings. However, Perez made the most of a short outing in his return to MLB on Aug. 7, striking out seven batters among his 14 outs recorded.
Perez has a bright future ahead of him, as he has impressed with a 2.79 ERA and 3.97 FIP through 12 starts. His 10.55 K/9 is slightly lower than Edward Cabrera's team-leading 10.87 K/9 rate, but he should be efficient with his limited innings thanks to a team-best .266 BABIP. The New York Yankees will likely oblige from a strikeout standpoint, as they rank in the bottom half of the league in strikeout rate since July 1.
The only other shop offering plus-money odds to back the Over is bet365 (+100), with FanDuel as high as -108.
Player prop: Matt Chapman Under 0.5 hits vs. Cubs (+180 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Toronto Blue Jays slugger Matt Chapman is just 10-for-44 in August, with an alarming 32.6% strikeout rate. He has hit .247 or worse for the last three months, but the most concerning number dip is his lack of power, as his slugging percentage is currently down 165 points this month from a .506 mark last month.
Chapman's only hit in 17 career at-bats against Jameson Taillon is a home run, but with just one long ball so far in August, he is not a threat to go deep again. We expect Taillon to hold Chapman hitless, especially since he has pitched to a 2.17 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in his last six starts, leading the Chicago Cubs to victory in each.
With Caesars’ odds as low as +156 for Chapman to not record a hit, bet365 offers great value in comparison.
Sunday’s MLB game picks
Moneyline: Braves vs. Mets (-130 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The gap between the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets figured to widen after the Mets were big sellers at the trade deadline. But the head-to-head series since then has been less competitive than many would have imagined, with Atlanta outscoring New York by 31 runs through the first three games, tied for the fifth-highest run differential to begin a four-game series since 1900, per Sarah Langs.
The supposed pitching mismatch with Kodai Senga opposing Yonny Chirinos has made this contest's moneyline odds manageable. But Senga's 3.73 xERA compared to his 3.24 actual ERA suggests regression is coming, especially if his control issues continue (he ranks in the 13th percentile in walk rate). Atlanta is a whopping 26 games over .500 (60-34) against right-handed starting pitchers, and only one other MLB team is better than 16 games over .500 in that split.
The Braves are an uninspiring 0-5 in the last five games that they have been moneyline favorites of shorter than -140. Still, anytime we can get a team on pace for 105 wins at that price, we will continue to be intrigued, especially when facing a team that has essentially punted this season.
With all other sportsbooks at -132 and higher to back Atlanta on the moneyline, BetMGM is our go-to shop.
MLB best bets made 8/13/2023 at 7:06 a.m. ET.
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSFULL | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
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