⚾ MLB Player Props Today: Best Bets & Prop Picks for Sunday, March 29
The first Sunday of the baseball season means we have more data to dig through than we know what to do with, but I managed to get through enough to uncover four tasty MLB player props for today's action.
We have a nice, even split of batter props and strikeout bets to go along with our home run predictions today. First pitch is at 1:35 p.m. ET, so let's dive right into the MLB prop bets.
βΎ MLB player props today: Best prop bet picks for March 29
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| βΎ Player prop | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso Over 1.5 total bases (+110 via BetMGM) | 0.4u β 0.84u | Profiles as one of the day's most prolific hitters |
| Max Meyer Under 5.5 strikeouts (-115 via Caesars) | 0.4u β 0.75u | Scary matchup but value on Under is too good to pass up |
| Brice Turang Over 1.5 total bases (+157 via DraftKings) | 0.4u β 1.03u | Brewers have been red-hot and Turang leads it off |
| Shota Imanaga Under 4.5 strikeouts (+122 via FanDuel) | 0.4u β 0.89u | Struck out just 7.28 per nine last season |
Total wagered: 1.6 units | Max profit: 1.91 units
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π° Best MLB player prop bet today
Pete Alonso Over 1.5 total bases (+110)
Pete Alonso has the best home run projection of any hitter today, but that market isn't showing a ton of value, so I've instead pivoted to his total bases prop. Based on his overall projections, we're getting 26% +EV on Alonso to go Over 1.5 total bases. Comparatively, his home run prop was showing less than 10%.
This is a good lesson: just because one market isn't showing an edge, that doesn't mean every related one will be priced accordingly. I would play this to odds as short as -105.
📡 SBR Edge: Don't be afraid to pivot
If you like a player, don't restrict yourself to only the player prop market you're most familiar with. I prefer to bet home runs, but I didn't like the odds I was getting on an Alonso home run, so I found value elsewhere.
π₯ More MLB player prop picks
Max Meyer Under 5.5 strikeouts (-118)
Eury Perez struck out eight over seven last night against the Rockies, but I don't think Max Meyer has quite as much success this afternoon.
Meyer went only 64 2/3 innings last season, and it's difficult to know what exactly the Marlins expect from him this year. He was once viewed as a potential front-end starter, but he's largely underwhelmed up to this point in his career.
The right-hander is projected to go a hair under five innings today and strike out around 4.7 batters. Based on that, we're getting better than 23% +EV on this Under. You can play it to odds as short as -135, and I like the Under 4.5 at +150 at BetMGM, too.
π Best MLB parlay picks today
I'm combining all four of our picks here for a small wager at DraftKings. I expect the first Sunday of the season to be relatively unpredictable, so I may even suggest opting only for this parlay at the reduced wager size to provide some casual betting-related entertainment at a low stake.
💵 Best MLB parlay bet today
- Pete Alonso Over 1.5 bases (+104)
- Max Meyer Under 5.5 strikeouts (-119)
- Brice Turang Over 1.5 bases (+157)
- Shota Imanaga Under 4.5 strikeouts (+118)
Best odds: +1995 via DraftKings (0.2u -> 4.19u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-20 | -8.04 units β | -58.1% β |
| Strikeout picks | 2-4 | -1.97 units β | -32.9% β |
| Batter props | 1-2 | -0.56 units β | -24.1% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB player props today (March 29)
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I usually bet a full unit on my daily player prop bets, but I'm less confident about these, so I reduced the wager size to 0.4 units ($50) each.
I don't love betting total bases props for a full unit, because I think there is too much variance on them throughout a 162-game season to justify it. However, all four of these bets are still better than 20% +EV, and I did bet them myself. It's just important to know your personal limits when betting across a long campaign.
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