⚾ MLB Player Props Today: Best Bets & Prop Picks for Saturday, March 28
I'm officially declaring Saturday, March 28 bounce-back day for my MLB player props, as we were burned by some truly pitiful at-bats by last year's AL MVP runner-up in one game and by some questionable umpiring in the other yesterday. We continue to trust the process, though, and I have two more MLB prop bets today.
We're looking at an Under for a pitcher who isn't exactly known for his strikeout ability against a team that was the second-best in all of baseball last year in terms of striking out. Meanwhile, I'm backing a potentially rejuvenated southpaw in a tough matchup, because I think his strikeout total is set too low.
βΎ MLB player props today: Best prop bet picks for March 28
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| βΎ Player prop | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Reynaldo Lopez Under 4.5 strikeouts (-127 via DraftKings) | 1u β 1.79u | Royals were second-best in terms of K% in 2025 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez Over 3.5 strikeouts (+124 via FanDuel) | 1u β 2.24u | Total still too low despite tough matchup |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 2.03 units
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π° Best MLB player prop bet today
Reynaldo Lopez Under 4.5 strikeouts (-127)
Reynaldo Lopez threw only five innings last season due to injury, and he makes his first start of this campaign against a Kansas City Royals team that struck out only six times over six innings against Chris Sale last night.
Lopez isn't expected to dominate the Royals' lineup tonight, as even his most optimistic strikeout projection is 3.7. Based on that number, we're getting better than 22% +EV on this bet. I would play this to a price as short as -145, and there are better odds widely available at our best sports betting sites.
📡 SBR Edge: Using odds movement in our favor
I wasn't particularly interested in this bet earlier this morning, but thanks to some betting action on the Over, this Under has come back into our range. That public action doesn't scare me, as three separate projection models show this as a +EV bet.
π₯ More MLB player prop picks
Eduardo Rodriguez Over 3.5 strikeouts (+124)
The last time we saw Eduardo Rodriguez, he was shutting down Team USA in the WBC final. His velocity was up a couple ticks from where it sat last year, and he looked like the pre-2020 Boston Red Sox version of himself.
And yes, this is a super tough matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers, but this total is very low and the plus-money odds only add to the value. Based on Rodriguez's lowest strikeout projection, we're still getting better than 30% +EV on this bet. I'd play this to odds as short as -110, which is exactly what Pinnacle - a notoriously "sharp" book - prices it at.
π Best MLB parlay picks today
I'm combining our two strikeout bets with a couple of props on batters I bet on earlier today with my home run predictions, focusing on what I believe to be higher-scoring Athletics vs. Blue Jays and Twins vs. Orioles games.
💵 Best MLB parlay bet today
- Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (+101)
- Byron Buxton Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (+101)
- Reynaldo Lopez Under 4.5 strikeouts (-127)
- Eduardo Rodriguez Over 3.5 strikeouts (+107)
Best odds: +1431 via DraftKings (0.2u -> 3.06u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1-16 | -8.97 units β | -83.5% β |
| Strikeouts | 0-4 | -4 units β | -100% β |
| Other batter props | 1-2 | -0.56 units β | -24.1% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB player props today (March 28)
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
Generally, I bet a full unit on my top player props each day. I spend an increased amount of time checking the projections and simulating them against the best odds, and I bet on props that show at least 20% +EV via multiple projection models.
Now, it's early in the season and some of the data may be a bit off, so I understand if someone would prefer to wager only 0.5 to 0.75 units on each of these.
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