⚾ MLB Player Props Today: Best Bets & Prop Picks for Opening Day, March 26
Twenty-two Major League Baseball teams begin their seasons across the 11-game slate, with nine of the 11 having first pitch scheduled for 4:15 p.m. ET or earlier. Both of last year's Cy Young Award winners (Pittsburgh's Paul Skenes and Detroit's Tarik Skubal) are on the bump, while Dodgers slugger Shohei Ohtani begins a campaign for a fifth MVP Award in the last six years.
My MLB player props today include my top prop bet on Skubal, who I expect to ease into a season in which he is chasing his third straight Cy Young. However, I expect another ace in Cristopher Sanchez to continue his steady improvement, and am also backing the Overs at plus-money odds on two batter props from National League teams.
⚾ MLB player props today: Best prop bet picks for Opening Day, March 26
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| ⚾ Player prop | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal Under 7.5 strikeouts (-145 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.69u | An early exit from the World Baseball Classic doesn't suggest he is ramped up |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 0.5 RBIs (+160 via bet365) | 1u → 1.6u | A new contract extension should have him playing loose early |
| Matt McLain Over 0.5 runs (+150 via DraftKings) | 1u → 1.5u | Few hitters were better in Spring Training than McLain |
| Cristopher Sanchez Under 1.5 earned runs (+100 via bet365) | 1u → 1u | The Rangers were one of the worst lineups against southpaws last season |
Total wagered: 4.0 units | Max profit: 4.79 units
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
💰 Best MLB player prop bet today
Tarik Skubal Under 7.5 strikeouts (-145)
Tarik Skubal is a back-to-back Cy Young Award winner who led the league in ERA both years, while his 7.3 K/BB rate last year was the AL’s best. But based on his limited services in the World Baseball Classic and his career numbers in March and April, I expect the Tigers coaching staff to be careful with their ace early.
Skubal has thrown just 114 innings in 22 career appearances in March and April. While his K/9 rate is 9.9 or higher in every other month, his March/April rate is much lower at 9.4.
📡 SBR Edge
Skubal had just two strikeouts in his Opening Day start last year, and stayed Under this projected total while throwing 87 or fewer pitches in two of his first three starts.
🔥 More MLB player prop picks
Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 0.5 RBIs (+160)
Cubs slugger Pete Crow-Armstrong should play much more loosely to begin the season now that he has signed a six-year extension with the club.
Crow-Armstrong started out hot last year over the 95 games prior to the All-Star Break. In that span, he hit 25 home runs, drove in 71 runs, stole 27 bases, and produced a .544 slugging and 131 wRC+. In the 62 games after the All-Star Game, he hit just six home runs with 24 RBIs, eight stolen bases, slugged .372, and posted a 72 wRC+.
I expect Crow-Armstrong to return to his early-season form from last year, especially against a Nationals pitching staff that projects to be among the worst in the majors.
Matt McLain Over 0.5 runs (+150)
I am taking a flier on this last batter prop knowing that I am opposing Garrett Crochet, an American League Cy Young favorite who should be among the league leaders in ERA and strikeout rate.
I cannot ignore what Matt McLain did for most of Spring Training when he mashed most pitches. At one point, McLain was batting .458 and slugging .708 against fastballs, batting .733 and slugging 1.933 against breaking balls, and posting a .417 batting average and .500 slugging versus offspeed pitches.
I'm buying low on McLain who is coming off a down year following shoulder surgery in 2024. I expect McLain to revert back to his rookie form, when he hit .290 while scoring 65 runs in 89 games in 2023 while finishing fifth in the Rookie of the Year voting.
Cristopher Sanchez Under 1.5 earned runs (+100)
Phillies southpaw Cristopher Sanchez takes on the role of the staff ace while Zack Wheeler tries to recover from injury.
Over the last two seasons, Sanchez ranks fifth in MLB in ERA (2.89), third in innings pitched (383.2), second in ground ball rate (57.8%), first in HR/9 (0.54), and fifth in quality starts (39).
Much of Sanchez’ success is owed to a nasty sinker that he threw at 95.4 mph on average last year compared to 92.1 mph in 2023. That increased velocity spiked the pitch’s Run Value up from 4 in 2023 to 19 last year, making it the best sinker in the majors.
Sanchez should overwhelm a Rangers lineup that ranked 22nd in wRC+ and 29th in BABIP against left-handed pitchers last season.
🚀 Best MLB parlay picks today
This parlay is all about trends between two batters and two pitchers who either start strong or slow to begin a season. While I'm only getting the best number individually on just the Crow-Armstrong prop by making this wager at bet365, using it as my top sports betting site was out of necessity as few others had an O/U for earned runs available.
💵 Best MLB parlay bet today
- Tarik Skubal Under 7.5 strikeouts (-160)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 0.5 RBIs (+160)
- Matt McLain Over 0.5 runs (+135)
- Cristopher Sanchez Under 1.5 earned runs (+100)
Best odds: +1886 via bet365 (0.25u -> 4.72u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Player props | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Parlays | N/A | N/A | N/A |
💡 How I'm betting MLB player props today (March 26)
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
Normally I do not like to lay as much juice as I'm laying with the Under for Skubal's strikeouts, but anything cheaper than -150 made sense given how he is expected to be used early on.
That steeper price is mitigated by the other three player props paying plus-money odds, which brings the net Max profit for the four wagers to an appealing 4.79 units while only risking four.
Related Articles
