⚾ MLB Player Props & Parlay Today: Best Bets & Prop Picks for Monday, April 6

My MLB player props today break down the best prop bets I'm playing across Monday's baseball slate.
Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Brayan Bello wasn't especially sharp in his first start, and he headlines my MLB player props today.
PIctured: Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Brayan Bello wasn't especially sharp in his first start, and he headlines my MLB player props today. Photo by Thomas Shea via Imagn Images.
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After a rough Friday, I'm back to start the new week on a high note, and I have a pair of strikeout bets for my MLB player props today.

I featured the game of the day - the World Series rematch between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays - heavily in my home run predictions today, and I have another bet from it here.

The second of my two strikeout props comes from the Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox, and as a fan of the latter, I have to admit I'm concerned about falling to 2-8 after today.


⚾ MLB player props today: Best prop bet picks for April 6

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

⚾ Player prop πŸ’΅ Units πŸ“ Notes
Brayan Bello Under 4.5 strikeouts (-135 via DraftKings) 1u β†’ 1.74u Looked very shaky in his first start against the Astros
Justin Wrobleski Over 3.5 strikeouts (-112 via DraftKings) 1u β†’ 1.89u Should have longer leash after 60 pitches in first appearance

Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 1.63 units

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πŸ’° Best MLB player prop bet today

Brayan Bello Under 4.5 strikeouts (-135)

Brayan Bello had a nightmare first start against the Astros. He got rocked for six runs, recorded only two strikeouts, and didn't even escape the fifth despite throwing 92 pitches. 

The Brewers don't offer much of an upgrade in matchup. The Astros are the best hitting team in baseball so far, while the Brewers are third-best.

Bello is projected for around 3.4 strikeouts today. Based on that number, we're getting nearly 30% +EV on this bet. I'd play this as short as -165, and though Pinnacle is already at -171, many of our best sports betting sites are still hovering around -150.

📡 SBR Edge: Red Sox have no answers thus far

Boston has been tragic in every way, and it'll likely move to 2-8 with another loss tonight. It's especially hard for starting pitchers to go out and perform well when they know their team is hot, steaming garbage.


πŸ”₯ More MLB player prop picks

Justin Wrobleski Over 3.5 strikeouts (-112)

I love betting an Over on 3.5 strikeouts, especially when we're getting this much value on it.

Justin Wrobleski has made only one appearance out of the bullpen this season, but he threw 60 pitches during it and should have a decently long leash today. This is a super low total, and we're seeing a ton of action on the Under, driving the Over price to a point I'm comfortable betting.

I would play this to odds as short as -145, and all of our best sports betting apps were shorter than that this morning. Based on Wrobleski's projection of around 4.5 strikeouts today, we're getting better than 25% +EV on this.

I looked at Wrobleski and what else we can expect from that game with my Dodgers vs. Blue Jays prediction

📊 Best NRFI bets today

Looking for a quick cash? Our Dustin Saracini drops his best NRFI bets today for you to cash in on.


πŸš€ Best MLB parlay picks today

I'm combining my two strikeout props with hitting props on two players in the Dodgers vs. Blue Jays game, who I featured in my home run picks. The implied probability of these odds is 10.45%, so I've increased my wager from my usual 0.08 to 0.2.

💵 Best MLB parlay bet today

  • Brayan Bello Under 4.5 strikeouts (-135)
  • Justin Wrobleski Over 3.5 strikeouts (-112)
  • Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (-146)
  • George Springer Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (-135)

Best odds: +857 via DraftKings (0.2u -> 1.91u)


πŸ’΅ My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks have been tracked since March 25.

Bet type Record Net profit ROI
Overall 14-56 -10.87 units βŒ -32.9% βŒ
Strikeouts 7-11 -3.95 units ❌ -23.5% ❌
Parlays 1-13 +0.18 units βœ… +16.5% βœ…

πŸ’‘ How I'm betting MLB player props today (April 6)

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

I wager one full unit on all my main player prop bets, which you can also find on X. In order for a bet to qualify as one of my full-unit picks, it needs to be at least 20% +EV based on more than one projection model. I'm still tinkering with which projection models I want to use for this season, but I have two that are my most trustworthy now.

If a bet is verified by only one projection model, is less than 20% +EV, or is in a market I'm less comfortable betting a full unit on, I'll drop my wager to 0.4 units.