⚾ MLB Player Props & Parlay Today: Best Bets & Prop Picks for Friday, April 3
After yesterday's joke of an MLB slate, we're back with plenty of baseball action today. My MLB player props today are reflective of that, as this is the most full-unit bets I've made in a single day this season.
As usual, I've focused on the pitcher strikeouts market, with four Unders and an Over. Some of these will surely be pretty sweaty, but we're getting really great value on all of them.
I've also added two home run predictions today to go along with these five bets.
βΎ MLB player props today: Best prop bet picks for April 3
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| βΎ Player prop | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease Under 7.5 strikeouts (-115 via bet365) | 1u β 1.87u | Will Cease's former team get the best of him? |
| MacKenzie Gore Under 6.5 strikeouts (+110 via Caesars) | 1u β 2.1u | Based on a projection of 6.16, this is roughly 23% +EV |
| Aaron Nola Under 5.5 strikeouts (+125 via bet365) | 1u β 2.25u | Will Coors Field get the best of Nola? |
| Joe Boyle Under 5.5 strikeouts (-114 via FanDuel) | 1u β 1.88u | Based on a projection of 4.75, this is roughly 23% +EV |
| Chad Patrick Over 3.5 strikeouts (-138 via FanDuel) | 1u β 1.72u | You know I love an Over on 3.5 |
Total wagered: 5 units | Max profit: 4.82 units
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π° Best MLB player prop bet today
Aaron Nola Under 5.5 strikeouts (+125)
This is scary because you're fading a good pitcher against an awful team. I get it. But Aaron Nola's strikeout projection is as low as 4.95 for today's game at Coors Field, and the average projection across three models of 5.38 is still showing plenty of value.
Based on that bigger number, we're getting roughly 30% +EV on this bet. Pinnacle - a sportsbook mostly known for being "sharper" than others - already has this priced at +105. I think this Under will be minus money leading up to first pitch, and I'd play it to odds only as short as +105, so act quickly before it gets to that point.
📡 SBR Edge: No bet is unplayable
I'm sure some people will look at this pick and call me an idiot. That's fine, and it may very well lose badly. But I'll always follow the data, and today, that's telling us that this is one of the best strikeout props to bet. Three trusted projection models all have this at better than 20% +EV.
π₯ More MLB player prop picks
Chad Patrick Over 3.5 strikeouts (-138)
I love betting an Over on 3.5 strikeouts, even against a team as good at avoiding the punchout as the Kansas City Royals.
The Royals are the sixth-best team in baseball in terms of strikeout rate, but Milwaukee Brewers starter Chad Patrick has a great strikeout projection today. He's projected to have a very strong start in general, including 4.91 punchouts over just more than five innings of work. Based on that projection, we're getting roughly 23% +EV on these -138 odds.
There may be some 4.5s with the Over at plus money that will be higher EV than this, but I prefer to get the buffer of an extra strikeout.
π Best MLB parlay picks today
I'm combining all five of my strikeout props for today's parlay. The implied probability of these odds is just better than 3.89%, so you could increase your wager size to roughly 0.15 to 0.2 units. However, because it's a bit of a strange day with only three games at the beginning of the season, I'm sticking with my $10 bet (0.08 units).
💵 Best MLB parlay bet today
- Dylan Cease Under 7.5 strikeouts (-125)
- MacKenzie Gore Under 6.5 strikeouts (+108)
- Aaron Nola Under 5.5 strikeouts (+112)
- Joe Boyle Under 5.5 strikeouts (-114)
- Chad Patrick Over 3.5 strikeouts (-138)
Best odds: +2469 via FanDuel (0.08u -> 2.06u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-48 | -7.59 units β | -27.2% β |
| Strikeouts | 6-8 | -1.82 units β | -14.2% β |
| Parlays | 1-11 | +0.34 units β | +35.9% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB player props today (April 3)
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I wager one full unit on all my main player prop bets, which you can also find on X. In order for a bet to qualify as one of my full-unit picks, it needs to be at least 20% +EV based on more than one projection model. I'm still tinkering with which projection models I want to use for this season, but I have two that are my most trustworthy now.
If a bet is verified by only one projection model, is less than 20% +EV, or is in a market I'm less comfortable betting a full unit on, I'll drop my wager to 0.4 units.
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