⚾ MLB Player Props Today: Best Bets & Prop Picks for Monday, April 13
I'm starting the week with three strikeout bets for my MLB player props today, and along with my home run predictions today, we have action to keep you invested all evening.
All three of these MLB picks come from the late-night games, so if you're on the East Coast like I am, you may be waking up to the result rather than witnessing it live. Well, based on the projections for today, we should be waking up to some wins if that's the case.
These three bets come in at better than 22% +EV, and I've combined them to form a parlay at +634 odds.
βΎ MLB player props today: Best prop bet picks for April 13
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| βΎ Player prop | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Severino Under 4.5 strikeouts (+128 via FanDuel) | 1u β 2.28u | Is due for strikeout regression based on stats thus far |
| David Peterson Under 4.5 strikeouts (+115 via bet365) | 1u β 2.15u | Is struggling to get through five innings so far this season |
| Justin Wrobkleski Over 3.5 strikeouts (-160 via bet365) | 1u β 1.63u | Pitch count continues to rise and has a solid matchup |
Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 3.06 units
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π° Best MLB player prop bet today
Luis Severino Under 4.5 strikeouts (+128)
Luis Severino takes the mound again tonight after back-to-back seven-strikeout performances, but I think he's going to visit Regression Island against the Rangers.
Texas ranks right in the middle of the league in terms of K rate vs. right-handers, while Severino hasn't really flexed elite strikeout stuff since 2018. Even this year, with a very impressive 11.48 K/9, he owns an absolutely abysmal 22.5% CSW. That's one of the worst rates in the entire league.
Based on Severino's projections, we're getting roughly 22% +EV on this bet today. I'd play it to odds as short as +105.
📡 SBR Edge: Don't be scared by prior losses
I bet on Severino's Under earlier this season and lost when he struck out seven over five innings against the Yankees. I'm trusting the numbers here rather than dwelling on that loss, and firing this bet up once again.
π₯ More MLB player prop picks
David Peterson Under 4.5 strikeouts (+115)
David Peterson has struggled to get through five innings in each of his three starts, as he topped out at 5 1/3 in his season opener against the Pirates. Well, there's nothing worse for a struggling pitcher than a visit to Dodger Stadium, and that's where Shohei Ohtani and Co. will be waiting for Peterson and the Mets tonight.
The Dodgers are in the top half of the league in terms of K rate vs. left-handers, and Peterson is projected for just around four punchouts. I would play this to odds as short as -120, and Pinnacle - a book recognized for being more sharp with its pricing - is already at -119. Our best sports betting sites could follow suit before you know it, so you'll want to lock in these odds while we're still getting better than 30% +EV.
π Best MLB parlay picks today
I'm combining my three strikeout props at DraftKings. The implied probability of these odds is 13.62%, so I've wagered 0.2 units ($25) on it myself. We're still looking for our first sweep on the player props this season.
💵 Best MLB parlay bet today
- Luis Severino Under 4.5 (+128)
- David Peterson Under 4.5 (+104)
- Justin Wrobleski Over 3.5 (-166)
Best odds: +634 via DraftKings (0.20 u -> 1.47u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-94 | -21.50 units β | -36.3% β |
| Strikeouts | 13-22 | -8.90 units β | -26.3% β |
| Parlays | 1-19 | -0.69 units β | -35.9% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB player props today (April 13)
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I wager one full unit on all my main player prop bets, which you can also find on X. In order for a bet to qualify as one of my full-unit picks, it needs to be at least 20% +EV through two separate projection models.
I'll sometimes add bets on hitting or pitching prop markets that I feel less comfortable betting a full unit on, so I'll limit those to 0.4 units.
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