⚾ MLB Player Props Today: Best Bets & Prop Picks for Friday, April 10
I'm back with five strikeout bets for MLB player props today, and all but one is trading at plus money.
I've bet on Friday's lone afternoon game, an NL Central showdown between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field, as well as the last game of the day, the Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers.
Along with my home run predictions today and other bets I dropped on X, we have a ton of betting action Friday.
βΎ MLB player props today: Best prop bet picks for April 10
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| βΎ Player prop | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Shota Imanaga Under 5.5 strikeouts (+125 via bet365) | 1u β 2.25u | Pirates are 10th in K rate this season |
| Clay Holmes Under 4.5 strikeouts (+124 via FanDuel) | 1u β 2.24u | Holmes averages less than 7 K/9 as a starter |
| Bryce Elder Over 4.5 strikeouts (+110 via FanDuel) | 1u β 2.1u | Has looked incredibly sharp in first two starts |
| Kris Bubic Under 5.5 strikeouts (+112 via Caesars) | 1u β 2.12u | Getting roughly 20% +EV based on projection |
| Tyler Glasnow Under 7.5 strikeouts (-129 via DraftKings) | 1u β 1.78u | This is a huge number for any pitcher to clear |
Total wagered: 5 units | Max profit: 5.49 units
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π° Best MLB player prop bet today
Shota Imanaga Under 5.5 strikeouts (+125)
I'm starting my day by fading Shota Imanaga at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are in the top 10 in overall strikeout rate and are even better against left-handers.
Meanwhile, Imanaga isn't exactly known for his strikeout stuff, as he's managed just 8.29 K/9 across 328 MLB innings. He's projected for right around five punchouts this afternoon, which makes this bet nearly 40% +EV at these +125 odds.
I'd play this to a price as short as +100, as it starts to dip to around 15% +EV when you get into minus-money territory.
📡 SBR Edge: Don't be scared by prior losses
I bet on Imanaga's Under earlier this season and lost when he struck out seven over five innings against the Nationals. I'm trusting the numbers here rather than dwelling on that loss, and firing this bet up once again.
π₯ More MLB player prop picks
Bryce Elder Over 4.5 strikeouts (+110)
Bryce Elder has never exactly been known as a strikeout pitcher, but he's been super sharp through his first two starts this season, clearing this total in each of them.
The fact that he's still trading at 4.5 with the Over at plus money is a bit strange to me, but I won't complain. Elder is projected for just better than five punchouts today, which makes this bet right around 25% +EV based on this +110 price.
Similar to Imanaga, I'd play this to odds as short as +100, which gives us a little less wiggle room, but most of our best sports betting sites are longer than that price still.
Meanwhile, Dustin Saracini is backing four pitchers to have at least a strong first inning with his best NRFI bets today.
Tyler Glasnow Under 7.5 strikeouts (-129)
I don't hate the Under 6.5 at big plus money for Tyler Glasnow tonight, but I prefer this bet.
Glasnow takes on the Texas Rangers, who are just outside the top 10 in strikeout rate against righties this season. Meanwhile, though Glasnow always has nasty strikeout stuff, he does have a history of making more abbreviated affairs, and that's playing a big role in this bet.
He's projected to go right around 5 1/3 and strike out just more than six, which is a far cry from the eight he'd need to clear this total. This is once again better than 20% +EV, and I'd play it as short as -150. Most of our best sports betting apps are at 6.5, and I'd play that Under as short as +105.
π Best MLB parlay picks today
I'm combining my five strikeout props at DraftKings, which has some of the best numbers on a few players but, more importantly, has the 7.5 for Glasnow. The latter is lacking at other sportsbooks. The implied probability of these odds is 2.67% and there are five legs, so I've wagered only 0.15 units on this.
💵 Best MLB parlay bet today
- Shota Imanaga Under 5.5 (+116)
- Clay Holmes Under 4.5 (+121)
- Bryce Elder Over 4.5 (+105)
- Kris Bubic Under 5.5 (+112)
- Tyler Glasnow Under 7.5 (-129)
Best odds: +3647 via DraftKings (0.15u -> 5.62u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-78 | -15.91 units β | -32.1% β |
| Strikeouts | 11-19 | -7.92 units β | -27.5% β |
| Parlays | 1-17 | -0.46 units β | -27.1% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB player props today (April 10)
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I wager one full unit on all my main player prop bets, which you can also find on X. In order for a bet to qualify as one of my full-unit picks, it needs to be at least 20% +EV based on more than one projection model. I'm still tinkering with which projection models I want to use for this season, but I have two that are my most trustworthy now.
If a bet is verified by only one projection model, is less than 20% +EV, or is in a market I'm less comfortable betting a full unit on, I'll drop my wager to 0.4 units.
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