⚾ Australia vs. Japan Predictions & Odds: WBC 2026 Betting Picks for Sunday
Two undefeated teams in Pool C square off on Sunday morning at 6 a.m. ET (FS1), but our Australia vs. Japan predictions point out the obvious: not all 2-0 teams are created equally.
On one hand, we have Shohei Ohtani and Co. They're crushing baseballs for fun and scored 21 runs across two games. On the other hand, we have Australia, who scored eight runs but did well to limit Chinese Taipei and Czechia. The problem is, everyone has limited Czechia, and everyone but Czechia limited Chinese Taipei.
Connor MacDonald takes the mound for Australia against Tomoyuki Sugano for Japan, and the latter is a -3000 favorite.
⚾ Australia vs. Japan WBC predictions: Sunday, 6 a.m. ET
Here are our World Baseball Classic picks for Sunday's Australia vs. Japan matchup; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale.
| Pick | Best odds | Bet size | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Japan -4.5 | -220 via bet365 | 1 units -> 1.45u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Under 11.5 | +104 via FanDuel | 1 units -> 2.04u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Kazuma Okamoto 2+ hits | +115 via DraftKings | 0.67 units -> 1.44u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Munetaka Murakami home run | +350 via bet365 | 0.5 units -> 2.25u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 3.17 units | Max profit: 4.1 units
💰 Australia vs. Japan best bet
Japan -4.5 (-220)
The sportsbooks are running from setting an actual run line for this game. This should be set at 6.5 or 7.5 based on these odds, but there's a very obvious fear that Australia can cover that number. Therefore, it's 4.5 with Japan heavily juiced to cover.
I think Japan wins by five or six runs, with a 8-2 or 9-3 score line feeling like the most plausible result. I don't recommend trying to "beat the juice" by betting this for more than a unit. Instead, you may be better off just saving your money for other games being played on Sunday.
🔥 Best Australia vs. Japan player prop
Kazuma Okamoto 2+ hits (+115)
Kazuma Okamoto will play a pivotal role for the Blue Jays this season, but he's yet to get it going during the WBC despite his team exploding for 21 runs. This is the game he finally breaks through.
Okamoto has intriguing odds to hit a homer, but I prefer to back him to rip multiple base hits. Remember, this is a player who hit .327 last year in NPB, and he had three hits in 10 plate appearances during spring training thus far.
He has three hard-hit balls so far, but only one went for a hit. Those will start to find holes, and I think we're getting great odds due to a combo of his early struggles and Australia's ability to limit offense thus far.
💣 Australia vs. Japan home run prediction
Munetaka Murakami home run (+350)
Munetaka Murakami has three hard-hit balls in two games, including the hardest hit ball of any player in the South Korea-Japan game.
This is a reminder that Murakami hit homers for fun in NPB, and the Chicago White Sox signed him to be their big power bat. I think he's getting tired of watching his teammates hit nukes and wants to join in on the action, and there's no better time to do so than the game that will likely decide the Pool C winner.
🚀 Australia vs. Japan same-game parlay
I'm parlaying our two player props and the Japan moneyline for our Australia vs. Japan SGP at bet365. Of course, you can see the odds are long, so limit your wager size.
💵 Best Australia vs. Japan parlay bet
- Japan moneyline (-1400)
- Kazuma Okamoto 2+ hits (+110)
- Munetaka Murakami home run (+350)
Best odds: +800 via bet365 (0.2u -> 1.8u)
⚖️ How I'm betting Australia vs. Japan
As I noted above, I'm inclined to leave the spread alone as part of my bankroll management. However, I'd bet a unit on the game going Under 11.5 runs, and then split either one full unit or around 1.33 on the two batter props.
📊 Australia vs. Japan odds & analysis
Here are the live World Baseball Classic odds for Australia vs. Japan on Sunday:
The longest odds on Japan to win outright are -1400, so that doesn't make for an especially appealing bet. At DraftKings, 87% of the moneyline bets have been placed on the favorites as of midnight ET on Saturday. Meanwhile, most books have the total at 11.5, though some like DraftKings and bet365 don't offer one at all.
🆚 Australia vs. Japan starting pitchers & projected lineups
Here are the projected starting pitchers and lineups for today's Australia vs. Japan matchup:
| Position | Australia | Japan |
|---|---|---|
| Starting pitcher | Connor MacDonald | Tomoyuki Sugano |
| C | Robbie Perkins | Kenya Wakatsuki |
| 1B | Rixon Wingrove | Munetaka Murakami |
| 2B | Travis Bazzana | Shugo Maki |
| SS | Jarryd Dale | Sosuke Genda |
| 3B | Curtis Mead | Kazuma Okamoto |
| LF | Chris Burke | Masataka Yoshida |
| CF | Aaron Whitefield | Seiya Suzuki |
| RF | Tim Kennelly | Kensuke Kondoh |
| DH | Alex Hall | Shohei Ohtani |
Key players to watch
Australia - Curtis Mead: Mead hit a three-run homer against Czechia, which got his team a lead it never gave up. Can he make a similar impact in this one?
Japan - Munetaka Murakami: The Chicago White Sox slugger is looking for his first homer of the tournament, and he's surely getting jealous watching Ohtani and Seiya Suzuki crush bombs for fun. I expect him to get in on the action.
📺 How to watch Australia vs. Japan
- When: Sunday, March 8
- First pitch: 6 a.m. ET
- Where: Tokyo Dome (Tokyo, Japan)
- TV: FS1
- Streaming: Fubo
❓ Australia vs. Japan World Baseball Classic FAQ
Here's what people are asking about Australia vs. Japan on Sunday:
Who is the favorite in Australia vs. Japan?
Japan is the favorite to win, with odds as short as -3000.
What time is the Australia vs. Japan WBC game?
This game will start at 6 a.m. ET.
Who are the starting pitchers for Australia vs. Japan?
Australia will send Connor MacDonald to the mound, while Tomoyuki Sugano will start for Japan.
Where can I watch the Australia vs. Japan WBC game?
You can watch this game on FS1 or stream it on Fubo.
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