Astros vs. Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: Can Walker Help Houston Avoid Sweep?
Sunday’s Major League Baseball slate gets underway bright and early with an 11:35 a.m. ET first pitch from Fenway Park (Roku) as the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox finish a three-game series.
Our Astros vs. Red Sox prediction backs Houston, the -120 moneyline road betting favorite at our best sports betting sites, as it has dominated when Framber Valdez pitches.
Meanwhile, our Astros vs. Red Sox best bets take a flier on a red-hot Houston slugger facing Boston righty Lucas Giolito for the first time in his career.
- Astros vs. Red Sox prediction: Astros to win (-120 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Best Astros vs. Red Sox player props: Christian Walker Over 0.5 RBIs (+165 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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✅ Astros vs. Red Sox prediction: Astros to win (-120 via FanDuel)
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Boston has won four straight games and 21 of its last 29 while averaging 3.3 runs allowed per game and owning a plus-75 run differential.
However, Houston had won 13 straight games started by Framber Valdez before losing 2-1 his last time out, tipping the scales toward Houston for our Astros vs. Red Sox prediction.
That one-run loss to the Washington Nationals the last time Valdez toed the rubber can hardly be pinned on the southpaw, as he allowed one run on three hits over six innings while matching a season-high with 12 strikeouts.
Valdez has the second-lowest ERA (1.42) of any starting pitcher in the majors since June 19, a stretch that spans six starts and 38 innings, making him the centerpiece of our Astros vs. Red Sox best bet.
This pick aligns with the market's overnight movement. Houston was as low as a -112 moneyline favorite at DraftKings when these odds first came out, but has now been steamed as high as -130 (carrying a 56.52% implied probability) at BetMGM and bet365.
💰 Best Astros vs. Red Sox player props
✅ Best Astros vs. Red Sox player prop: Christian Walker Over 0.5 RBIs (+165 via Caesars)
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Walker is one of the few batters in Houston’s starting lineup who has never faced Lucas Giolito. But given the tear he has been on since the start of July, we are backing him to drive in a run as our best Astros vs. Red Sox player prop.
Walker drove in Houston’s only run in Friday’s series opener, and he entered yesterday batting .315 with four doubles, four home runs, and 19 RBI in 23 games since the start of July.
He followed that with another home run and two of the team’s three RBIs yesterday and is by far the Astros’ most consistent source of offense of late.
These +165 odds make for a great value play, considering Walker has driven in at least one run in eight of the last 14 games. The potential profit on a winning $10 wager is $1 more at Caesars ($16.50) compared to the maximum net of $15.50 through DraftKings’ +155 odds on the low end of the market.
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❓MLB betting FAQs
How do betting odds work?
Betting odds represent the probability of a specific outcome and determine how much money you can win on a bet. There are three main formats: American odds, Decimal odds, and Fractional odds. In the U.S., American odds are most common.
What is the run line in baseball?
The run line in baseball is a form of point spread betting unique to MLB. It typically sets a standard spread of 1.5 runs, meaning the favored team must win by at least two runs to cover the run line, while the underdog can lose by one run or win outright to cover.
What does moneyline mean in betting?
The moneyline in betting refers to a wager on which team or player will win the game outright, with no point spread involved. It’s the most straightforward type of sports bet - just pick the winner.
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