Astros vs. Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: Can Boston Snap its Series Opener Losing Streak?

Who comes out on top when the Astros and Red Sox open a series that could be an American League playoff preview?
Pictured: Boston Red Sox designated hitter Masataka Yoshida celebrates a solo home as we make our best Astros vs. Red Sox prediction. Photo by Bruce Kluckhohn via Imagn Images.

The Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox have each won back-to-back games entering this series, which is a possible American League playoff preview. My Astros vs. Red Sox prediction analyzes which team will make it three straight.

Houston is a -140 road moneyline betting favorite according to our best sports betting sites, with first pitch from Fenway Park set for 7:10 p.m. ET (Apple TV+). My Astros vs. Red Sox best bets expect Houston starting pitcher Hunter Brown’s late-season swoon to continue against Boston’s hot bats.

  • Astros vs. Red Sox prediction: Red Sox to win (+116 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Best Astros vs. Red Sox player props: Hunter Brown Under 6.5 strikeouts (-130 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

⚾ Astros vs. Red Sox prediction & odds

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✅ Astros vs. Red Sox prediction: Red Sox to win (+116 via FanDuel)

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Hunter Brown began the season on fire with seven consecutive quality starts and was consistently among the league’s best pitchers in terms of ERA. However, something has been off with the righty of late, which is why I am backing Boston with my Astros vs. Red Sox prediction.

Brown is no longer the innings-eater he once was, failing to pitch into the sixth inning in three straight starts after doing so in each of his first 18 starts. His velocity was down at least 0.5 mph in each of his four primary pitches in his last outing, and his regression is the biggest reason for our Astros vs. Red Sox best bet, with Boston not having announced its starting pitcher.

Boston ranks in the top five in the majors in ISO, OPS, and strikeout rate in home games against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days. I look for its offense to again make Brown work, and for the Red Sox to take advantage of an Astros lineup that remains without several of its best bats, even if it acquired Carlos Correa at the trade deadline.

The Red Sox have lost each of their four series openers since the All-Star break, but have won six of their last seven home series and four of the last six series openers at Fenway Park.

Boston backers will find the best odds at FanDuel, where a winning $10 wager would pay out $11.60 in profits.

💰 Best Astros vs. Red Sox player props

✅  Best Astros vs. Red Sox player prop: Hunter Brown Under 6.5 strikeouts (-130 via FanDuel)

Brown made his only career start against Boston last season at Fenway Park, and nine of his 16 outs were strikeouts. However, the Red Sox struck out at the fourth-lowest rate (17%) against right-handed pitchers in July home games, and Brown’s inability to pitch deep into games of late lowers his strikeout ceiling for our best Astros vs. Red Sox player prop.

Brown has seven-plus strikeouts in four of his last six starts, so it is telling that the oddsmakers have the Under of 6.5 juiced as high as -135 (carrying a 57.45% implied probability) at several of the best sports betting apps.

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