Astros vs. Orioles Prediction, Thursday, Aug. 21: Best Bets & Odds

Houston and Baltimore are trending in opposite directions entering Thursday's matchup.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: August 21, 2025 4:26 PM EDT • 4 minute read

Astros vs. Orioles Prediction, Thursday, Aug. 21: Best Bets & Odds — Pictured: Baltimore second baseman Jackson Holliday (7) as we offer our Astros vs. Orioles prediction. Photo by Brian Fluharty via Imagn Images.

Time to break down a key American League matchup in my Astros vs. Orioles prediction. As these teams open a series tonight, they do so heading in opposite directions series opener.

The Baltimore Orioles are going for a fourth straight win, while the Houston Astros have lost four in a row. The game begins 7:15 p.m. ET at Camden Yards, and it will air on FOX.

I agree with Baltimore being a slight -118 moneyline favorite at our top sports betting sites, based on Houston’s recent struggles.

We also back a Baltimore slugger to continue to be an elite table-setter with our Astros vs. Orioles best bets.

⚾ Astros vs. Orioles prediction & odds

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✅ Astros vs. Orioles prediction: Orioles to win (-118 via BetMGM)

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Houston has been outscored 30-2 over its four-game losing streak, which included getting shut out in three consecutive games (tied for the third-longest streak in franchise history). Until I see more consistent production from Houston’s bats, I am backing Baltimore with my Astros vs. Orioles prediction.

The Astros snapped a 30-inning scoreless streak in yesterday’s 7-2 loss to the Detroit Tigers. In the three games they were shut out, they collectively batted .160 with a .391 OPS. But pitching was also an issue, as their starters and relievers combined for a 7.43 team ERA.

Houston’s offensive struggles go back slightly further when today’s starter, Brandon Young, retired the team’s first 23 batters last Friday. Young’s stuff was filthy in that start, inducing a 38.2% overall chase rate and a .244 xwOBA contact rate. He may not flirt with perfection again, but he anchors my Astros vs. Orioles best bet.

As of early Thursday morning, BetMGM was the only top sports betting app where one could back Baltimore at better than -120 odds.

📊 Live Astros vs. Orioles odds: Thursday, 7:15 p.m. ET

💰 Best Astros vs. Orioles player prop

✅ Best Astros vs. Orioles player prop: Jackson Holliday Over 0.5 runs (-105 via DraftKings)

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Baltimore has averaged six runs per game over its recent 6-1 stretch. Much of that has to do with Holliday sparking the team at the top of the lineup, and I am backing him with my best Astros vs. Orioles player prop.

Holliday has scored a run in six consecutive games and eight runs total in that span. One of the most encouraging signs for him going forward is his recent plate discipline, as he has drawn five walks compared to striking out just once over the previous three games.

A $10 winning wager at these -105 odds would net $9.52 in profits.

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❓MLB betting FAQs

Who is the favorite to win Astros vs. Orioles?

The Orioles are favored vs. the Astros at -118 odds, giving Baltimore an implied 54.13% win probability, according to our odds converter.

How do betting odds work?

Betting odds represent the probability of a specific outcome and determine how much money you can win on a bet. There are three main formats: American odds, Decimal odds, and Fractional odds. In the U.S., American odds are most common.

What is the run line in baseball?

The run line in baseball is a form of point spread betting unique to MLB. It typically sets a standard spread of 1.5 runs, meaning the favored team must win by at least two runs to cover the run line, while the underdog can lose by one run or win outright to cover.

What does moneyline mean in betting?

The moneyline in betting refers to a wager on which team or player will win the game outright, with no point spread involved. It’s the most straightforward type of sports bet - just pick the winner.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”