⚾ 10 Breakout MLB Players to Watch This Season 2026: Is Baseball's Next Star in This Group?
It can be difficult to identify breakout candidates. Who could have guessed Geraldo Perdomo would suddenly become an NL MVP candidate last year? Or that Andrew Abbott would own a sub-3.00 ERA despite calling Great American Small Park his home stadium?
However, there are some indicators, and we're digging through the data to deliver our 10 breakout MLB players to watch this season. They may not be awards contenders, but they could help you win fantasy leagues or profit on daily prop bets.
10 breakout MLB players to watch this season
I've looked at a combination of second-half stats, batted-ball data, underlying pitching metrics, and previous rankings as a prospect to find 10 MLB players who I strongly believe are breakout candidates for the 2026 regular season.
🫅 Vinnie Pasquantino - 1B, Royals
Pasquantino enters his fifth season with a Kansas City Royals team that I think serves as a serious contender to win the AL Central, which I outlined in my look at the MLB playoff odds. Sure, he drilled 32 home runs last season, but as I noted while making him one of my best bets by the MLB home run leader odds, I believe the Pasquatch has another gear he can shift to.
Here are the key reasons why Pasquantino could be poised for a breakout season in 2026:
📈 Vinnie Pasquantino key breakout factors
- Played significantly better during second half last season, with 125 wRC+ compared to 109 in first half
- Also cut down on strikeouts (14% from 16.8%) and took more walks (7.9% from 6.7%) in second half
- Has always hit the ball hard, with an average exit velocity of at least 90 mph in three of four seasons
- Set to hit third behind perennial AL MVP candidate Bobby Witt Jr. and 2025 breakout Maikel Garcia
- Royals making ballpark adjustments to make Kauffman Stadium more hitter friendly
🤾 Emmet Sheehan - SP, Dodgers
Sheehan is one of the most popular breakout candidates this year after a very strong second season with the Dodgers. He may have trouble reaching the necessary number of innings to serve as a true NL Cy Young contender, but his numbers should more or less look like those of one of a pitcher in the upper tier of MLB starters.
Here are the key reasons why Sheehan could be poised for a breakout season in 2026:
📈 Emmet Sheehan key breakout factors
- Was excellent last season in only 73 1/3 innings, and his peripherals backed up his strong surface-level stats
- Pitches for the best team in baseball, so run support and solid defense behind him shouldn't be an issue
- His stuff was disgusting last year: 93rd percentile whiff rate, 91st percentile chase rate, and his breaking pitch run value was in the 94th percentile
- Strikeouts skyrocketed last year after missing the entirety of the 2024 season due to an elbow injury
- Most trustworthy projection models all have him recording an ERA below 4.00 this season, and he has a super high ceiling
💣 Andrew Vaughn - 1B, Brewers
Vaughn entered MLB with a ton of hype for the Chicago White Sox, but it wasn't until last year's midseason trade to the Milwaukee Brewers that he lived up to it. Now in his sixth year, Vaughn looks to carry that momentum into his first full season in Milwaukee.
Here are the key reasons why Vaughn could be poised for a breakout season in 2026:
📈 Andrew Vaughn key breakout factors
- Hit nine home runs in only 64 games with the Brewers last year, to go along with a .308/.375/.493 slash line
- Has always hit the ball hard - average exit velocity over 90 mph in every season as a pro - and cranked it up a notch in 2025
- Cut down on strikeouts in a big way when he got to Milwaukee
- Is set to hit fifth in Brewers order behind a number of studs, which was a big reason he managed 46 RBIs in those 64 games last year
- Anyone who watched Brewers baseball in the second half saw a rejuvenated former highly ranked prospect living up to his potential
🧑🏫 Brayan Bello - SP, Red Sox
Some may say Brayan Bello had a mini-breakout in 2025 with his 3.35 ERA over 166 2/3 innings. The fact that I have him on this list means I think Bello, who's been mentored by Red Sox legend Pedro Martinez throughout his career, can take an even bigger leap in 2026. In his fifth season with Boston, I believe Bello could become a bona fide ace.
Here are the key reasons why Bello could be poised for a breakout season in 2026:
📈 Brayan Bello key breakout factors
- Bello continued to limit hard contact and get ground balls in 2025, which will be his calling card since he doesn't get a ton of strikeouts
- Joining the Red Sox this offseason was Ranger Suarez, who was in the 95th percentile in average exit velocity and 98th percentile in hard-hit rate against last year
- Suarez could serve as a mentor for Bello because of his similar pitching style
- He'll no longer have to serve as the staff No. 2 like he has in the past, as the additions of Suarez and Sonny Gray should help take some pressure off him
⚡ Alec Burleson - 1B/OF, Cardinals
If a tree falls in a forest and no one is there to hear it, does it make a sound? The same could be said about an Alec Burleson breakout, as I'm sure whether anyone will be watching St. Louis Cardinals games this year. Nevertheless, this is a guy who could very well hit 30-plus homers with elite rates this season. He's quietly gotten better in each of the last three years, and I think this is the season he puts it all together.
Here are the key reasons why Burleson could be poised for a breakout season in 2026:
📈 Alec Burleson key breakout factors
- Shouldn't face any competition for either playing time or a premium spot in the Cardinals lineup
- Continued to show a very impressive approach at the plate last year with a 14.5% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate
- Average exit velocity and hard-hit rate improved from 2024 season, and his launch angle provided for more fly balls
- If he can speed up his swing just a bit, he should have no problem hitting 30 home runs this season
🤩 Joey Cantillo - SP, Guardians
Cantillo enters his third season in the majors, and it looks like he may be the next dominant Guardians pitcher in what's become a long line of them during the last decade. He was very solid in his second year in the majors, and I think we could be talking about him as Cleveland's ace when this season ends. The lanky lefty racked up strikeouts in only 95 1/3 innings last year, and I expect him to carry that into his first full season in 2026.
Here are the key reasons why Cantillo could be poised for a breakout season in 2026:
📈 Joey Cantillo key breakout factors
- Owned 3.21 ERA in 2025, and peripherals were also very solid; 3.55 FIP and 3.83 SIERA
- Has nasty offspeed and breaking stuff, which he used to register an absurd 31.5% CSW
- Was absolutely dominant in the second half of the season, with a 2.48 ERA over 54 1/3 innings compared to 4.17 over 41 first-half innings
👀 Matt Wallner - OF, Twins
Following a decline in his production at the plate last year, I think Matt Wallner breaks out in a big way for the Twins this season. Among the red flags, there were some real signs of an improved approach at the plate, and with a little more BABIP luck this season, Wallner could cement himself as one of the better left-handed power bats in the AL.
Here are the key reasons why Wallner could be poised for a breakout season in 2026:
📈 Matt Wallner key breakout factors
- Cut strikeout rate from 36.4% in 2024 to 29.1%, which was still very high but showed improvements
- Had a very strong second half despite .200 batting average; he owned an .806 OPS and 123 wRC+
- Hits the ball really hard, and his launch angle and bat speed could lead to an eye-popping number of home runs if he even slightly improves upon a 1st percentile squared-up rate from 2025
🏴☠️ Spencer Horwitz - 1B, Pirates
The Pittsburgh Pirates look to be a team on the rise, and though a lot of that is due to its homegrown talents making their way to the big leagues, I believe Spencer Horwitz will also play a major role this season. He was really solid in 108 games with the Pirates last year, and he has a real chance to shine as the team's leadoff hitter in 2026.
Here are the key reasons why Horwitz could be poised for a breakout season in 2026:
📈 Spencer Horwitz key breakout factors
- Great approach at the plate for a leadoff hitter: 81st percentile chase rate, 86th percentile whiff rate, 76th percentile walk rate
- Doesn't hit the ball especially hard but he provided much more pop in the second half last season, with nine home runs in 62 games
- Gets added protection in the lineup this year with the additions of Brandon Lowe and Ryan O'Hearn
- We could be looking at a player with an OBP hovering around .380 with 20-plus homers this year
🪃 Jung Hoo Lee - OF, Giants
Lee signed a big contract with the San Francisco Giants following seven seasons in the KBO. He's more or less disappointed in the majors due to injuries and inconsistent play, though he did show signs of breaking out last year. Lee is likely to move out of the leadoff position for the Giants, and that could help take a lot of pressure on him. I think we see him shine as a result.
Here are the key reasons why Lee could be poised for a breakout season in 2026:
📈 Jung Hoo Lee key breakout factors
- Lee hit .293 in the second half last season after batting only .249 in the first half, showing the elite bat-to-ball skills that caused the Giants to sign up
- He will never have the flashy home run totals of some of the other names mentioned, but with his combination of putting the ball in play and strong baserunning, he could ascend up the WAR leaderboard
- Outfield play was a bit spotty last year but he has a strong arm, and with more experience in major-league ballparks, the defensive metrics should improve
🔱 Dominic Canzone - OF/DH, Mariners
Let me put this in simply terms: in an eight-team fantasy league last year in which I won fairly comfortably, I rostered Dominic Canzone at various points. The consistent playing time (and, therefore, numbers) never came, but when you look under the hood, this kid can straight-up hit the ball.
Here are the key reasons why Canzone could be poised for a breakout season in 2026:
📈 Dominic Canzone key breakout factors
- Though he didn't qualify among hitters, his Statcast page was full of red in 2025
- He crushed the ball and cut down on his strikeouts from his 2024 campaign
- Though his OPS dipped during the second half, he greatly improved his walk rate, which I imagine was something the Mariners were happy to see
- Should be platooned far less often this season, and he could easily eclipse 20 home runs if given regular playing time
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