Sony Open Best Bet to Win, Odds & Betting Insights: PGA Tour Golf Betting Preview
The 2026 PGA Tour season tees off tomorrow at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, and my Sony Open best bet to win features the projected champion and the best ways to handicap the tournament.
The updated odds supplement my predictions for the anticipated event, which starts Thursday with the first tee times at 12:10 p.m. ET. Russell Henley is the betting favorite to win. His +1100 odds (bet365) imply an 8.33% win probability. The field includes 120 participants, including defending champion Nick Taylor, who is trading at +4500 odds to win.
📊 Sony Open odds to win 2026
Our live Sony Open odds will update in real time based on the odds from our best golf betting sites.
💰 Pick to win the Sony Open
J.J. Spaun (+1800)
Let's see if last season was a breakout or fluke for J.J. Spaun, who enters the 2026 season at No. 6 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), one spot below Henley.
Then-34, Spaun won the U.S. Open by two strokes for just his second PGA Tour win and first in over three years. He previously lost The Players Championship (Rory McIlroy) and later the FedEx St. Jude Championship (Justin Rose) in a playoff.
Like Henley, Spaun excels with his irons, short game, and most notably last season, his putter. He's played 22 career rounds at Waialae Country Club and tied for third last year as his best result to date. His odds have dropped across the board, but bet365 leads the market at +1800 (bet $10 to win $180). I would not go lower than these odds with an outright bet this week.
💡 More golf predictions
Want more golf betting advice? Check out all of our golf picks and expert predictions for every game this season.
🎯 Sony Open long-shot pick
Eric Cole (+8000)
Eric Cole enters the 2026 PGA Tour season at No. 110 in the OWGR. He remains without a win on golf's top tour, but he had four top-10 finishes last season, including two during the Fall Swing, and a fifth-place showing at last year's Sony Open.
Putting was key to Cole's success at Waialae CC last year, but as was his typically sharp iron play. He enters this week's tournament with an average of 0.64 strokes gained: approach across his last 28 measured rounds, and his putting has stayed hot.
A winning $10 long-shot bet would return a profit of $800.
🚩 Sony Open first-round leader pick
Nick Taylor (+5500)
Nick Taylor headlines my three-pack of Sony Open first-round leader picks for Thursday's opening round at Waialae Country Club. The defending tournament is a historically strong Round 1 scorer (just not last year), and he has a strong pedigree at this venue and tournament, having finished T-7 each of the two years before his win last January.
🏆 Who is the favorite to win the Sony Open?
Russell Henley (+1100)
Henley won this event in 2013 for his first PGA Tour victory and more recently lost in a playoff in 2022. He ranks fifth in this week's field with 1.29 true strokes gained on the field per round across his 46 career rounds played at Waialae.
Henley excels with his irons and short game, and those are the key statistics at this key course each year. I have no problem with his odds, which represent a 8.33% implied win probability, according to our odds converter. I just prefer to back an outright winner pick with longer odds, given the recent winners of this event.
⛳️ How to bet Russell Henley
I still want to get some action on Henley this week, given his excellent course history and statistical fit. I consider him a value play at plus-money for a top-10 finish.
We can get +140 odds from FanDuel to turn a $10 bet into a $14 profit.
👀 Sony Open betting report
Here is how the betting action the Sony Open is coming in at BetMGM ahead of the tournament:
Sony Open line movement with implied win probability change
| Golfer | Opening odds | Current odds | Win probability change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Conners | +4000 | +3000 | 2.4% → 3.2% (+0.8 pts) |
| Collin Morikawa | +2200 | +2000 | 4.3% → 4.8% (+0.5 pts) |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +2000 | +1800 | 4.8% → 5.3% (+0.5 pts) |
| Ben Griffin | +1600 | +1400 | 5.9% → 6.7% (+0.8 pts) |
Highest ticket%
- Collin Morikawa 7.4%
- Corey Conners 6.3%
- J.J. Spaun 6.2%
Highest handle%
- Ben Griffin 21.6%
- Collin Morikawa 10.3%
- Keegan Bradley 6.6%
🌴 Waialae Country Club course info & key stats
Here's what to know to handicap the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club:
| Course info | Key stats |
|---|---|
| Par: 70 | Strokes gained: approach |
| Yardage: 7,044 | Strones gained: around-the-green |
| Greens: Bermuda grass | Proximity from 150-175 yards |
⛳ Sony Open tournament info 2026
- Where: Waialei Country Club (Honolulu)
- When: Thursday, Jan. 15 - Sunday, Jan. 18
- Field: 120
- Favorite: Russell Henley (+1100 via bet365)
- Defending champion: Nick Taylor
- Purse: $9.1 million
- FedEx Cup points: 500
📜 Sony Open betting history
Here are the recent winners of the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu:
| Year | Winner | Score to par | Odds (prior to Round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Nick Taylor | -16 (playoff) | +10000 |
| 2024 | Grayson Murray | -17 (playoff) | +40000 |
| 2023 | Siwoo Kim | -18 | +4000 |
| 2022 | Hideki Matsuyama | -23 (playoff) | +1800 |
| 2021 | Kevin Na | -21 | +6000 |
| 2020 | Cameron Smith | -11 (playoff) | +4000 |
| 2019 | Matt Kuchar | -22 | +4000 |
| 2018 | Patton Kizzire | -17 (playoff) | +6000 |
| 2017 | Justin Thomas | -27 | +1500 |
| 2016 | Fabian Gomez | -20 (playoff) | +8000 |
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