Sony Open First-Round Leader Picks & Odds: Who Leads After Round 1 in Hawaii?

Nick Taylor returns to Waialae Country Club as the defending champion, and he headlines my best Sony Open first-round leader picks for Thursday's opening round in Honolulu. Russell Henley is this week's outright betting favorite for the first tournament of the 2026 PGA Tour season. The first Sony Open tee times will go off at 12:10 p.m. ET as the 120-man field gets started.

💰 Sony Open first-round leader predictions

Here are our top golf picks for the 18-hole leader of the Sony Open.

Note: The first-round leader market is decided once everyone in the field has completed their first 18 holes. This may be Friday morning in the event of a weather or darkness delay.

📊 Sony Open first-round leader odds

Here are the Sony Open first-round leader odds via our best golf betting sites.

⛳ Who'll lead the Sony Open after Round 1?

Nick Taylor (+5500)

It can often be ill-advised to bet on defending tournament champions in golf outright markets. Typically, the returning champ is faced with an overload of media responsibilities that the rest of the field doesn't need to worry about during tournament week.

That's a lesser concern in Honolulu.

As such, I'm backing Taylor, who's a historically strong Round 1 scorer despite ranking just 120th last year. The Canadian finished T-7 at Waialae CC in back-to-back years before last year's win. Taylor was nearly my Sony Open best bet to win, but I prefer the (slightly) longer odds for the first-round lead.

Harry Hall (+5500)

Harry Hall ranked third on the PGA Tour in Round 1 scoring average last season at 68.24 strokes. He trailed only Scottie Scheffler and Garrick Higgo, neither of whom is in this week's season-opening field.

Hall played this event each of the past three years and had a best finish of T-10 last year. Hall is a very sharp putter and plays well around the greens. 

Keith Mitchell (+6500)

Keith Mitchell ranked right behind Hall in first-round scoring average last season at 68.29 strokes across 24 tournaments. He enters this season at No. 130 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) following a couple of strong finishes during the Fall Swing, T-10 in the Baycurrent Classic and T-18 in The RSM Classic.

Mitchell has an extensive course history at Waialae, having played 28 career rounds in the Sony Open. He's coming off back-to-back T-30 finishes, but had a top result of T-7 in 2022.

He'll be in the first group off of the 10th tee at 12:10 p.m. ET when the wind in Honolulu will be at its calmest of the day.

⛅ What to consider when betting on the first-round leader

Betting on the first-round leader of any golf tournament is far different than betting on the tournament winner or any prop market.

Here are the factors I always consider with my first-round leader picks:

• Tee times
• Weather
• Course history
• Round 1 scoring average
• Recent form
• Key stats for the week

The first-round leader betting market is much more volatile than the 72-hole event. As such, the odds for the tournament favorites are higher in this market, and the odds for the long shots are generally slightly shorter when betting on the 18-hole sample.

Early tee times are generally best to target for your picks. Courses are often at their softest and easiest, with no divots in the fairways or wear on the greens. But the weather can significantly change that line of thought. Monitor the weather to be sure your desired golfers will be dodging the worst of the rain and wind, should any be in the forecast.

I also greatly reduce my timeframe when looking at recent performance entering Thursday's first round.

Thursday's weather at Waialae Country Club:

• Temperate: 79 degrees
• Wind: 13 mph (gusts up to 31 mph)
• Precipitation: 0%