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2024 PGA Championship Matchups Picks: Accuracy and Distance Keys to Success

Matt MacKay

Last Updated: May 15, 2024 5:27 PM EDT • 4 min 62 sec read.

We're set for the second major of the golf season as we look at our favorite PGA Championship matchups picks. Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are the outright betting favorites based on the odds from our best golf betting sites. 

Golf's elite have gathered at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky, for the 2024 PGA Championship, the second major of the season. Scottie Scheffler returns to the course after celebrating the birth of his son, Bennett, while Rory McIlroy arrives in top form, claiming victory at the Wells Fargo Championship last weekend.

Defending champion Brooks Koepka is primed to defend his title, having triumphed at Oak Hill Country Club in 2023. With three previous PGA Championship wins since 2018 and a recent victory at LIV Golf Singapore, Koepka enters the tournament in stellar form, poised to continue his dominance at this prestigious event.

Scheffler remains No. 1 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) and is the betting favorite by the PGA Championship odds.

Here are our PGA Championship matchups picks for Valhalla Golf Club based on the odds from our best sports betting sites (confidence rating based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

PGA Championship matchups

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Jason Day vs. Min Woo Lee ⭐⭐⭐

Two generations of Aussie golfers, Jason Day and Min Woo Lee, are paired together in our first PGA Championship tournament matchup. 

Day won the 2015 PGA Championship, the year after he turned in a T-15 finish at Valhalla. He’s coming off of a strong T-4 finish at Quail Hollow during the Wells Fargo Championship and ranks in the top 15 in both strokes gained: around-the-green and SG: putting. 

Lee has faltered a bit in 2024, recording only one top 10 finish so far. He tied for 18th at 2-over in last year's PGA Championship and made the cut in each of the next three majors, including this year's Masters. Lee is excellent with his driver, ranking 10th in SG: off-the-tee, but his inability to gain strokes in all other areas of the course will hinder his ability to wind up with a lower final scorecard than Day. 

This is a three-star rating due to both players’ volatility, especially with Lee holding an edge off-the-tee at such a lengthy course like Valhalla. However, I’m more confident in the veteran who is coming off of a solid showing in a Signature Event, especially since he’s significantly better at scrambling and sinking birdies and par-breaking putts.

Best odds: -115 via FanDuel

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Brooks Koepka vs. Bryson DeChambeau ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Koepka and DeChambeau are both playing at LIV golf, so naturally, DraftKings has them paired for a 72-hole tournament matchup prop. 

Koepka is the defending PGA Champion, finishing 9-under at Oak Hills in 2023. He’s also fresh off of an outright win at LIV Singapore, plus, he’s already stacked three wins at the PGA Championship. Koepka competed at the 2014 PGA Championship and recorded a T-15 finish, which bodes well for his outlook at Valhalla this time around.

Dechambeau’s red-hot start at Augusta National quickly turned into a house of horrors, as his approach shots and putter were out of sync during the final two rounds. He’s available at -110 to beat Koepka’s final score since we’ve seen DeChambeau record a pair of T-4 finishes in 2023 and 2020 at the PGA Championship, plus he’s equipped with a strong driver that can navigate the length of Valhalla. This has Esten McLaren targeting him with his PGA Championship first-round leader picks.

Ultimately, we’re siding with the proven commodity by backing Koepka as the favorite to win this head-to-head matchup at -120 odds. He’s too good at this event and his confidence is soaring after the outright win last week, so it’ll pay dividends not to overthink this wager.

Best odds: -120 via DraftKings

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Xander Schauffele vs. Ludvig Åberg ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The most confident head-to-head matchup to target is available at Caesars, as they’ve paired Schauffele against Åberg.

Åberg withdrew from the Wells Fargo Championship prior to Round 1 due to knee soreness, and despite being one of the best golfers off-the-tee, he does tend to find the rough despite the distance. Conversely, Schauffele’s inability to keep up with Rory McIlroy at the Wells Fargo Championship on Sunday shouldn’t diminish the value we’re getting on him in this matchup against Åberg.

Schauffele ranks eighth SG: off-the-tee and seventh in SG: approach. He’s also inside the top 45 for SG: around-the-green and SG: putting. There are hardly any weaknesses in his game right now, which is why we’ve seen eight top 10 finishes from Schauffele in 12 events played this season.

Åberg is making his PGA Championship debut and is dealing with his knee injury, while Schauffele has recorded a T-18 finish or better in four of the past five PGA Championship outings.

These -170 odds are a bit shorter than the other two matchups, but he’s built to contend and wind up with a better final scorecard than Åberg, despite the Swede recording a runner-up finish during his debut at Augusta National last month.

Best odds: -170 via Caesars

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PGA Championship betting pages

How to bet on golf

Betting on golf involves understanding the various types of bets available and how to assess player performance. First, familiarize yourself with the different types of bets commonly offered in golf, including outright winner bets, each-way bets (which cover both a win and a top finish), head-to-head matchups between two players, and proposition bets on specific events within a tournament, such as hole-in-one occurrences or individual player performances on certain holes.

Once you've identified the types of bets you're interested in, research the players, course conditions, recent form, and other relevant factors that could influence outcomes. Pay attention to factors like player statistics, recent tournament performances, course history, and any injuries or changes in form that may affect a player's performance.

Golf betting odds pages

Masters OddsPGA Championship OddsBritish Open OddsFedEx Cup Odds
Masters PicksU.S. Open OddsBritish Open Prop BetsRyder Cup Odds
Masters Prop BetsU.S. Open PicksWM Phoenix Open Odds
Masters Projected Cut OddsU.S. Open Prop Bets

Here are our best golf betting sites:

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Written By:
Matt MacKay
Matt MacKay has handicapped golf, the NFL, NCAAF, and NHL since joining the sports betting industry as a writer in 2020. He’s worked for several prominent sites, recently expanding his coverage to include sports betting news and the regulatory industry. Bringing a background in communications and writing, earning a Masters Degree in Organizational Communication from Ohio University, Matt has co-hosted a fantasy football and sports betting podcast, while continuously refining his handicapping methods. This includes identifying recent trends, head-to-head statistics, and comparing individual and team strengths and weaknesses to accurately predict the outcome in certain betting markets before a game or event. He’s a daily bettor and tends to wager on FanDuel, with DraftKings and Hard Rock Bet as preferred sports betting app alternatives. An avid researcher, writer, editor, and podcaster, Matt is eager to dig into matchups to offer readers and subscribers value on his picks. He’s a big proponent of building bankroll by avoiding poor betting habits and tendencies, like chasing losses, placing too many wagers, and managing bankroll. His worst beats to date both came on two separate NFL parlays, losing due to Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown dropping passes. NRFIs have quickly become one of Matt’s favorite betting markets, recently diving into MLB game props.