2024 PGA Championship Long-Shot Picks: Sleepers to Win at Valhalla Golf Club
Our PGA Championship long-shot picks are fading betting favorites Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy in hopes of a significant payday that could come with the inflated odds for the rest of the field across our best golf betting sites.
Scottie Scheffler is in a tier of his own as the consensus favorite by the 2024 PGA Championship odds. Rory McIlroy is a distant second but still far ahead of the rest of the field coming off his victory in the Wells Fargo Championship.
As a result, bettors are able to target some inflated odds for nearly everybody else in this 156-man field. Due to Scheffler's domination, Rory's popularity and most recent victory, and the threat of Brooks Koepka in yet another major, a win from almost anyone else would return a hefty profit from our best sports betting sites.
We've looked at more modest odds offerings in my PGA Championship expert picks, but below we're targeting golfers with odds of 100-1 or longer thorugh our PGA Championship long-shot picks. Use our PGA Championship power rankings to help differentiate the favorites.
PGA Championship long-shot picks
- Talor Gooch (+11000 via FanDuel)
- Corey Conners (+12500 via Caesars)
- Keegan Bradley (+25000 via FanDuel)
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Talor Gooch
It's time for Gooch to show out. Or get out and shut up.
For some reason unbeknownst to everyone, Gooch has been the most vocal of anyone about the restrictions put on LIV Series golfers participating in majors. It's odd, particularly for someone who has a career-best T-14 finish through 11 major appearances. He missed the cut in two of the three majors he played last year and subsequently wasn't invited to the 2024 Masters.
Now, he's been given a chance with an invitation to the PGA Championship, even though he missed the cut last year. And in 2020.
Slights aside, Gooch was a three-time winner on the LIV circuit in 2023. He has a best 2024 finish of T-2 in Las Vegas. He's ranked as Data Golf's 33rd-best golfer in the world, independent of the tour they represent.
Best odds: +11000 via FanDuel
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Corey Conners
Conners posted a career-best T-12 finish during the PGA Championship. That was a rebound from a missed cut in 2022 which followed a T-17 in 2021. It was also his best finish in any major outside a run of three straight top 10s during the Masters from 2020 to 2022.
He moved up to No. 49 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) to become the second-ranked Canadian by the metric with last week's T-13 finish in the Wells Fargo Championship. That also extended his streak to 19 consecutive made cuts (including no-cut events) dating back to June 2023.
The Canadian ranks sixth among qualified golfers in the PGA Championship field with 0.98 strokes gained: approach per round across his last 16 rounds. He's shown improved play with his putter, and Connors is well above average in this field in driving distance. Conners is also 15th on the PGA Tour this season in birdie-or-better percentage from Valhalla's key distance of 200-plus yards.
Best odds: +12500 via Caesars
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Keegan Bradley
This is the most outrageous number on the board. Sure, Bradley missed the cut in the 2014 PGA Championship at Valhalla, but that was 10 years ago.
The 37-year-old Vermont native enters the week at No. 20 in the OWGR with a victory in each of the last two years. The 2011 PGA Champion missed the cut just twice in this event since his victory, and he recorded a T-29 result in 2023. He tied for 22nd in the Masters and finished T-21 last week at Quail Hollow while averaging 1.23 SG: approach per round.
His irons have been Bradley's key strength in 2024, and he ranks 38th in birdie-or-better percentage from 200-plus yards.
A $10 bet at these odds would return a $2,500 profit with a victory. That's certainly worth a sprinkle and would bring about an enticing cash-out option should he be on the first page of the leaderboard during the weekend.
Best odds: +25000 via FanDuel
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PGA Championship betting pages
- PGA Championship odds
- PGA Championship picks
- First-round leader picks
- PGA Championship matchups picks
- PGA Championship expert picks
- PGA Championship long-shot picks
- PGA Championship power rankings
- PGA Championship props
Recent PGA Championship winners
| Year | Name | Odds (prior to Round 1) | Course |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Brooks Koepka | +2000 | Oak Hill |
| 2022 | Justin Thomas | +1600 | Southern Hills |
| 2021 | Phil Mickelson | +25000 | Kiawah Island |
| 2020 | Collin Morikawa | +3000 | TPC Harding Park |
| 2019 | Brooks Koepka | +1000 | Bethpage Black |
| 2018 | Brooks Koepka | +1800 | Bellerive |
Recent PGA Championship long-shot winners
Odds were prior to Round 1 of the tournament.
- Phil Mickelson - 2021 (+25000 | 250-1)
- Jimmy Walker - 2016 (+12500 | 125-1)
- Keegan Bradley - 2011 (+15000 | 150-1)
- YE Yang - 2009 (+12500 | 125-1)
The PGA Championship has produced some of the most surprising and impressive long-shot winners of the four majors. Phil Mickelson's victory at Kiawah Island just three years ago came with odds around 250-1 that implied a 0.40% probability he'd win the Wanamaker Trophy then at age 50.
PGA Championship odds: Favorites
(Odds as of Wednesday at 9:30 a.m. ET)
| Name | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +400 | +400 | +450 🔥 | +300 ❄️ | +400 |
| Rory McIlroy | +750 | +750 | +750 | +600 ❄️ | +700 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1400 | +1400 | +1400 | +1000 ❄️ | +1400 |
| Jon Rahm | +1600 | +1600 | +1800 🔥 | +1400 ❄️ | +1600 |
| Brooks Koepka | +1600 | +1600 | +1400 | +1100 ❄️ | +1400 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +2200 | +2200 | +1800 | +1400 ❄️ | +1800 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +2800 | +2800 | +2500 | +2000 ❄️ | +2500 |
| Collin Morikawa | +3000 | +3000 | +2800 | +2500 ❄️ | +2800 |
| Max Homa | +3500 | +3500 | +3300 | +2500 | +2500 |
| Joaquin Niemann | +3500 | +3500 | +3300 | +2500 ❄️ | +3000 |
| Tiger Woods | +30000 | +40000 | +20000 | +40000 | +20000 |
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- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our Bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
