PGA Championship Expert Picks to Win 2024: Outright Predictions for Valhalla Golf Club

The second major of the year tees off in under 24 hours and the three favorites enter off of victory in their most recent professional event while we look for value in the odds from our best golf betting sites with our PGA Championship expert picks for who'll win at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Ky., this week.

Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Brooks Koepka enter the week of the 2024 PGA Championship as the betting favorites, each having claimed victory in their last event. Thus, it's no surprise to see them as the clear favorites by the PGA Championship odds across our best sports betting sites.

Scheffler is the 2024 Masters winner (to go with three other victories this year). Koepka is the defending PGA Champion at Oak Hill (and a three-time winner of this event). McIlroy won the 2014 PGA Championship the last time it was held at Valhalla Golf Club (his last major victory).

Here are our expert PGA Championship picks for who'll claim the Wanamaker Trophy with an outright victory at Valhalla Golf Club this week, along with all you need to know in order to bet on this event.

PGA Championship info

• When: Thursday, May 16 - Sunday, May 19
• Where: Valhalla Golf Club, Louisville, Ky.
• How to watch: ESPN and CBS
• Defending champion: Brooks Koepka
• Favorite: Scottie Scheffler (+400 via FanDuel)

2024 PGA Championship outright picks: Who'll win at Valhalla?

Wyndham Clark

Best odds: +4000 via FanDuel

FanDuel is offering a rogue outlier price on Clark to win the PGA Championship following an ugly T-47 result in the Wells Fargo Championship in which he lost strokes across all key metrics. We'll use this as an opportunity to buy low on a golfer who still ranks fifth on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: total per round across everyone's last 16 measured rounds.

Clark remains fourth in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) entering the week. He's eighth on the PGA Tour in birdie-or-better percentage from 200-plus yards and 54th in bogey avoidance.

Caesars still offers his PGA Championship odds at just +1600. An extra $240 in profit can be had by placing this $10 bet at FanDuel instead.

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Jason Day

Best odds: +6500 via Caesars

Day moved to No. 19 in the OWGR with a T-4 finish in last week's Wells Fargo Championship. That was his fourth consecutive made cut, which started with a T-30 finish in the Masters. It was also his third top-10 showing in a Signature Event this year, with a T-6 in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and a solo ninth in the Genesis Invitational.

The Aussie tied for 15th the last time the PGA Championship was held at Valhalla, a finish that matched Koepka. He's been a consistently elite putter this calendar year, and last week gave us some hope for improved iron play at a major-caliber venue.

Day also ranks 14th on the PGA Tour this season in bogey avoidance and 52nd in birdie-or-better percentage from our key distance of 200-plus yards.

These +6500 odds would return a $650 profit on a $10 bet with an implied win probability of 1.52%.

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Sam Burns

Best odds: +7000 via Caesars

Burns teed it up last week for the first time as a father and tied for 13th amid difficult conditions in the Wells Fargo Championship. He'll look to continue that likely sleep-deprived wave while looking to improve upon a career-best major finish of T-20 in the 2022 PGA Championship as well as missed cuts in last year's tournament and this year's Masters.

Burns started the 2024 PGA Tour season with four straight top 10 finishes through the West Coast swing, but he hit a stumbling block when golf moved to Florida and Georgia. We'll hope that the Midwest is his sweet spot for his first stroke-play victory since 2022 (though he did win last year's Match Play in convincing fashion).

The Louisiana native has more than enough distance to combat the difficult conditions of Valhalla, and his play in Signature Events this year provides plenty of hope for a major breakthrough.

These are outlier odds with other books down at +5000, so there's an extra $200 in profit to be had with a winning $10 bet at Caesars.

PGA Championship betting pages

• PGA Championship odds
• PGA Championship picks
• First-round leader picks
• PGA Championship matchups picks
• PGA Championship expert picks
• PGA Championship long-shot picks
• PGA Championship power rankings
• PGA Championship props

Valhalla Golf Club course profile

• Par: 72
• Length: 7,609
• Greens: Bentgrass
• Architect: Jack Nicklaus

PGA Championship key stats

• Strokes gained: tee-to-green
• SG: off-the-tee
• SG: approach
• SG: around-the-green
• Birdie-or-better percentage from 200-plus yards
• Bogey avoidance

2024 PGA Championship odds - May 14

(Odds as of Wednesday at 9:30 a.m. ET)

Recent PGA Championship winners

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