⛳️ Cognizant Classic Long Shots & Sleeper Picks: 3 Outright Bets Longer Than +4500
As The Cognizant Classic returns to PGA National Resort in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla., from Feb. 26-March 1, the event sets the stage for another thrilling week of golf with Ryan Gerard favored as some of the high profile golfers are sitting this week out.
Last year, Joe Highsmith took home the trophy with a clutch final round to win the 2025 Cognizant Classic, edging out the field with a strong performance at PGA National Resort. As we dive into this year’s Cognizant Classic long shot and sleeper picks, keep the value in mind of a few long shot plays. A $10 wager on our best bet pays out $500.
🎯 Cognizant Classic long-shot picks
Here are our best long-shot golf picks for Cognizant Classic based on the odds from our best golf betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale.
| Pick | Best odds | Confidence | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sami Valimaki | +5000 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐ | .1 units to win 5 units |
| Michael Brennan | +5000 via DraftKings | ⭐⭐⭐ | .1 units to win 5 units |
| Seamus Power | +7500 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐ | .1 units to win 7.5 units |
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💰 Best Cognizant Classic sleeper bet
Sami Valimaki (+5000)
At +5000 odds, Sami Valimaki brings legitimate winning upside into the Cognizant Classic. His aggressive style is perfectly suited for a tournament that often turns into a birdie-fest, and his iron play allows him to consistently attack pins and create scoring chances.
When Valimaki finds a rhythm with the putter, he can go on extended runs and climb leaderboards in a hurry. He’s also proven he can handle pressure, showing poise late in events. In a wide-open field, his confidence, shot-making ability, and fearless approach make him a strong value play.
🐎 Cognizant Classic dark horse picks
Michael Brennan (+5000)
At +5000 odds, Michael Brennan presents serious upside at the Cognizant Classic this week. Brennan is one of the more talented young ball-strikers in the field, and his ability to consistently find fairways and attack pins gives him a real chance to separate in a birdie-heavy event. On a course where precision into greens is critical, his iron play can generate the type of scoring opportunities needed to contend.
What makes Brennan especially intriguing is his fearless mentality. He doesn’t shy away from aggressive lines, and that confidence can pay dividends in a tournament that often turns into a shootout. If he gains strokes with the putter early, momentum could quickly build. At this price, you’re backing both talent and upside. In a field without an overwhelming favorite, Brennan has the game, composure, and ceiling to outperform expectations and capture his breakthrough PGA Tour victory this week.
Seamus Power (+7500)
At +7500 odds, Seamus Power stands out as one of the most intriguing value plays at the Cognizant Classic this week. Power has already proven he can close on the PGA Tour, and that winning experience matters in a tournament that often turns into a Sunday shootout. His iron play is at its best on courses that reward precision and smart course management rather than overwhelming distance, which fits this setup perfectly.
Power’s short game is another major asset. When he’s sharp around the greens and rolling the putter with confidence, he can pile up birdies in bunches. He also tends to perform well in events where scoring conditions are favorable, allowing him to stay aggressive without pressing. In a wide-open field without a dominant favorite, Power has the skill set, experience, and upside to dramatically outperform his number and lift the trophy at a generous price.
Our Dustin Saracini breaks down the field in his Cognizant Classic picks and predictions.
💡 How I'm handicapping Cognizant Classic
Three of the past four winners of the Cognizant Classic had odds of +10000 or longer, so I’ve targeted a few long-shot plays to win this event.
This tournament has consistently rewarded value bettors willing to look beyond the top of the board. With scoring conditions often creating volatility, long shots have a real opportunity to surge up the leaderboard over the weekend. Rather than focusing solely on the favorites, I’m embracing the unpredictability of this event and backing players with upside, strong ball-striking metrics, and the ability to catch fire with the putter at a generous price.
Our Esten McLaren breaks down his first-round leader predictions in his Cognizant Classic first-round leader predictions.
📜 Cognizant Classic betting history
Here are the recent winners of the Cognizant Classic at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla. Historical golf odds via GolfOdds.com:
| Year | Winner | Score to par | Odds (prior to Round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Joe Highsmith | -19 | +10000 |
| 2024 | Austin Eckroat | -17 | +10000 |
| 2023 | Chris Kirk | -14 (playoff) | +3000 |
| 2022 | Sepp Straka | -10 | +12500 |
| 2021 | Matt Jones | -6 | +8000 |
| 2020 | Sungjae Im | -11 | +3000 |
| 2019 | Keith Mitchell | -9 | +1000 (field) |
| 2018 | Justin Thomas | -8 (playoff) | +1000 |
| 2017 | Rickie Fowler | -12 | +1500 |
| 2016 | Adam Scott | -9 | +2000 |
⛳ Cognizant Classic tournament info
- Where: PGA National (Palm Beach Gardens, Fla.)
- When: Thursday, Feb. 26 - Sunday, March 1
- Field: 122
- Cut: 36 holes (top 68 and ties)
- Favorite: Ryan Gerard (+1400 via DraftKings)
- Defending champion: Joe Highsmith
- Purse: $9.6 million
- FedEx Cup points: 500
📊 Cognizant Classic full-field odds
Here are the odds to win for everyone in the Cognizant Classic field:
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