BMW Championship Odds & Expert Picks 2024: Don't Count Out Rory
There's no surprise at the top of this week's BMW Championship odds. Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele, who both flirted with victory last week and remain 1-2 in the season-long FedEx Cup standings, respectively, maintain their usual status as betting favorites.
However, the playing field will be leveled ever so slightly this week as the PGA Tour returns to Castle Pines Golf Club in Colorado for the first time since the early 2000s. The Jack Nicklaus-designed venue will play over 8,000 yards for the top 50 golfers in the season-long points race.
The top 30 in the standings after Sunday's final round in Colorado will advance to next week's Tour Championship. Stay on top of the FedEx Cup odds from our best golf betting sites while looking ahead to East Lake Golf Club.
BMW Championship odds
BMW Championship odds from our best sports betting sites as of Wednesday at 9:40 a.m. ET. | 🔥 = best available odds | ❄️ = worst available odds
| Name | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler 🇺🇸 | +300 | +300 | +333 | +300 | +370 🔥 |
| Xander Schauffele 🇺🇸 | +550 | +550 | +600 | +550 | +650 🔥 |
| Rory McIlroy (NI) | +1200 | +1200 | +1400 | +1200 | +1500 🔥 |
| Collin Morikawa 🇺🇸 | +1400 | +1400 | +1400 | +1400 | +1500 🔥 |
| Patrick Cantlay 🇺🇸 | +1600 ❄️ | +1800 | +1800 | +1750 | +1800 |
| Hideki Matsuyama 🇯🇵 | +1600 | +1800 | +1600 | +1800 | +2000 🔥 |
| Viktor Hovland 🇳🇴 | +1800 | +1800 | +1800 | +1400 ❄️ | +2000 🔥 |
| Ludvig Aberg 🇸🇪 | +2000 ❄️ | +2200 | +2200 | +2200 | +2400 🔥 |
| Wyndham Clark 🇺🇸 | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 | +2200 ❄️ | +2700 🔥 |
| Tony Finau 🇺🇸 | +2500 | +2800 | +2800 | +2000 ❄️ | +2700 |
BMW Championship picks
First-round leader: Taylor Pendrith (+5000)
Pendrith had a rare down week with his driver at TPC Southwind during the FedEx St. Jude Championship. He still managed to finish T-22 thanks to excellent iron play. That has the Canadian 27th in the FEC standings entering this week, and he'll still need a strong showing to ensure his spot in the Tour Championship.
Pendrith's usual prowess with his big stick is what has me drawn to him as a first-round leader bet. He also has a Round 1 tee time of 10:05 a.m. ET in the fifth pairing, alongside Tom Hoge. He's 40th on the PGA Tour this season in Round 1 scoring average.
That'll let him hit the course when it's at its softest and best, with his distance advantage helping him along.
Best odds: +5000 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 1.96%
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Cam Davis top rest of world (+1600)
Davis enters this week at No. 44 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) and No. 49 in the FEC standings after squeaking into the top 50 with a T-40 finish last week.
The winner of the Rocket Mortgage Classic failed to record any other top-10 finish this year. Yet, I like him as a course fit for Castle Pines GC with his well-rounded driving game that has him ranking near the top of this field in distance and accuracy.
He's also averaged 0.52 strokes gained: around-the-green across his last 16 measured rounds. The Australian is an adequate 68th on the PGA Tour in birdie-or-better percentage when approaching the green from 200-plus yards. That metric includes those eliminated from the playoffs.
Caesars is one of our best sports betting apps and is offering a Top Australian market, which pits Davis (+270) against Adam Scott (+130) and Jason Day (+150) over 72 holes. I prefer to chase the bigger payday with DraftKings for a $160 profit on a winning $10 bet.
Best odds: +1600 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 5.88%
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My first click
Rory McIlroy to win (+1500)
It's tough to love betting on McIlroy a week after he finished T-68 and two strokes out of last place in a 70-man field. It's even tougher to not love him at Castle Pines Golf Club.
Despite last week's struggles, McIlroy still leads everyone in this field in strokes gained: off-the-tee over everyone's last 16 rounds. Obviously well known for his distance off the tee, his accuracy with the driver also ranks near the top of the field.
On top of that, McIlroy also ranks second - to Cam Davis - in SG: around-the-green, though it may not seem like it if you've regularly been watching PGA Tour broadcasts this season.
McIlroy's disastrous finish last week has propped up the odds for the fifth-ranked golfer in the FedEx Cup standings relative to those for Scheffler and Schauffele. These +1500 odds from bet365 bring an extra $30 in profit on a winning $10 bet compared to the +1200 odds offered elsewhere.
Best odds: +1500 via bet365 | Implied probability: 7.69%
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BMW Championship favorite
Scottie Scheffler (+370)
Scheffler finished alone in fourth last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind. He remains No. 1 in the OWGR and maintains a nearly-1,500-point lead over Schauffele in the season-long FEC standings.
In case you've been living under a rock for the last two-plus years, there's absolutely nothing to dislike about Scheffler's game. However, I don't believe he's worth the odds he carries to win at a venue essentially debuting on the PGA Tour this week.
A $10 bet at these +370 odds from bet365 would return a modest $37 profit should he claim his seventh win of the season. The market-low +300 odds found elsewhere represent an implied win probability of 25% in a field comprised of the best 50 golfers this season.
I'll be passing on Scheffler in the outright market once again in favor of golfers with a little more length off the tee.
Best odds: +370 via bet365 | Implied probability: 22.22%
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BMW Championship info
- Where: Castle Pines Golf Club, Castle Rock, Colo.
- When: Thursday, Aug. 22 - Sunday, Aug. 25
- Field: 50
- Favorite: Scottie Scheffler (+370 via bet365)
- 2023 champion: Viktor Hovland (-17)
- Purse: $20 million
- FedEx Cup points: 2,000
Castle Pines GC course profile
- Par: 72
- Length: 8,130 yards
- Greens: Bentgrass
- Architect: Jack Nicklaus
Castle Pines is hosting a PGA Tour event for the first time since The International in 2006. The Jack Nicklaus-designed venue will play well over 8,000 yards at a par of 72.
Several lakes and bodies of water have been added to the mountainside course. Undulating and tight fairways, and elevated greens add to the difficulty.
Schauffele recently compared the putting surfaces to those of Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. "They're new, greens are concrete, balls are bouncing everywhere," Schauffele said, according to Mark Schlabach of ESPN. I'd pay a little extra attention to the scrambling and strokes gained: around-the-greens metrics this week.
Past BMW Championship winners, odds & scores
Note: This is the first year for Castle Pines Golf Club to host the BMW Championship. The event changes location nearly every year.
| Year | Winner | Pre-tournament odds | Score to par |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Viktor Hovland | +1600 | -17 |
| 2022 | Patrick Cantlay | +2000 | -14 |
| 2021 | Patrick Cantlay | +2500 | -27 (playoff) |
| 2020 | Jon Rahm | +900 | -4 (playoff) |
| 2019 | Justin Thomas | +1400 | -25 |
| 2018 | Keegan Bradley | +10000 | -20 (playoff) |
| 2017 | Marc Leishman | +4000 | -23 |
| 2016 | Dustin Johnson | +800 | -23 |
| 2015 | Jason Day | +650 | -22 |
| 2014 | Billy Horschel | +6000 | -14 |
Historical odds via golfodds.com
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