⛳ Arnold Palmer Invitational Power Rankings & Best Bets: Plus-Money PGA Tour Props

Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy prepare for another head-to-head battle as the betting favorites in another 72-man Signature Event field. Our Arnold Palmer Invitational power rankings look for ways to bet these two favorites and the rest of our top-10 golfers this week with a plus-money PGA Tour golf prop pick for Bay Hill Club & Lodge.

There will be a 36-hole cut this week, with the top 50 and ties, and anyone within 10 strokes of the lead advancing to the weekend.

🔋 Arnold Palmer Invitational power rankings & best bets

Here are our 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational power rankings, with the best odds from our best golf betting sites and a bet to make for all 10 golfers:

💰 Best bets for our Arnold Palmer Invitational top 10

Here's the analysis for our top 10 Arnold Palmer Invitational power rankings to help with your golf picks this week:

🥇 Rory McIlroy

Best odds to win: +1000
Best Arnold Palmer Invitational finish: Win (2018)
Bet to make: Top-10 finish (+106)

Why I'm betting Rory McIlroy: In form off the tee and around the greens, and leading the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approach this season.

🥈 Scottie Scheffler

Best odds to win: +350 via BetMGM
Best Arnold Palmer Invitational finish: Win (2022, 2024)
Bet to make: Top American (+225)

Why I'm betting Scottie Scheffler: Because I like McIlroy more than Scheffler in the outright market this week, I'm betting Scheffler to be the top American, as we're still getting +225 odds in what I consider the weaker player pool.

🥉 Matt Fitzpatrick

Best odds to win: +2500 via FanDuel
Best Arnold Palmer Invitational finish: Runner-up (2019)
Bet to make: Top-10 finish (+220)

Why I'm betting Matt Fitzpatrick: Absolute horse for the course with seven finishes of T-22 or better in his last nine trips to Bay Hill; in excellent form with his irons and short game.

4️⃣ Tommy Fleetwood

Best odds to win: +2000 via FanDuel
Best Arnold Palmer Invitational finish: T-3 (2019)
Bet to make: Top British & Irish (+350)

Why I'm betting Tommy Fleetwood: Back-to-back top-10 finishes in his first two Signature Events of the season and second in par-5 scoring this season; we're getting +350 odds for what's basically a head-to-head matchup with Fitzpatrick.

5️⃣ Hideki Matsuyama

Best odds to win: +3300 via FanDuel
Best Arnold Palmer Invitational finish: T-6 (2016)
Bet to make: Top-5 finish (+650)

Why I'm betting Hideki Matsuyama: My first Arnold Palmer Invitational pick leads the PGA Tour in scrambling, and his putter and short game have been red hot through his last three events.

6️⃣ Si Woo Kim

Best odds to win: +3300 via BetMGM
Best Arnold Palmer Invitational finish: T-19 (2025)
Bet to make: Top-20 finish (+105)

Why I'm betting Si Woo Kim: Third on the PGA Tour in proximity to the pin on approaches from this week's key distance of 175-200 yards and among the most accurate drivers this season.

7️⃣ Xander Schauffele

Best odds to win: +2500 via FanDuel
Best Arnold Palmer Invitational finish: T-24 (2020)
Bet to make: Top American (+1400)

Why I'm betting Xander Schauffele: This is more about why Schauffele is this low in the rankings, but he has a poor history at Bay Hill without a top 20 finish; however, he showed some olds form in his T-7 finish in The Genesis and the +1400 odds are overinflated with Scheffler the favorite in this market.

8️⃣ Jake Knapp

Best odds to win: +4000 via bet365
Best Arnold Palmer Invitational finish: T-57 (2024)
Bet to make: Top-20 finish (+150)

Why I'm betting Jake Knapp: I value course history quite a bit at Bay Hill, so it's tough to get all the way behind Knapp after a T-57 finish in his lone tournament appearance to date, but the form with his putter and irons is tough to fade completely.

9️⃣ Collin Morikawa

Best odds to win: +2700 via DraftKings
Best Arnold Palmer Invitational finish: Runner-up (2025)
Bet to make: Top-10 finish (+245)

Why I'm betting Collin Morikawa: Second on Tour in proximity on approach from 175-200 yards and had a career-best runner-up finish at Bay Hill last year while relying on his accuracy off the tee and strong iron play.

🔟 Sam Burns

Best odds to win: +5500 via BetMGM
Best Arnold Palmer Invitational finish: T-9 (2022)
Bet to make: Top-20 finish (+170)

Why I'm betting Sam Burns: I'm betting Burns to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational as a long shot with +5500 odds, but I love the plus-money odds for a top-20 finish as a hedge for one of the Tour's best putters on Bermuda greens.

💡 How I'm betting the Arnold Palmer Invitational

The Arnold Palmer Invitational just might be my favorite Signature Event on the PGA Tour. I love the course setup and the multiple ways to attack each hole, as well as the challenges of the firm and fast putting surfaces. 

As such, I tend to raise my betting budget this week while keeping bankroll management front of mind. It's another Signature Event, so I don't want to overexpose myself to any one golfer, and will be looking for ways to get some action on Scheffler as a partial hedge.

The past 10 winning scores have ranged from -4 to -18. Only three of the past eight champions of this event had odds longer than +2500, so I'll be sticking mostly to the favorites in the outright market and will look to back long shots in the form of top 10 or top 20 bets.

I'll also be monitoring the Players Championship odds throughout the week, and looking to get ahead with any outright bets as this week's leaderboard takes shape.

Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge has lent itself to a variety of golfer profiles in recent years. From Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau's raw power to Russell Henley's precision ball striking last year. The winning profile has shifted toward accuracy off the tee, but approach shots remain the key to key success, especially from the key range of 175-200 yards.

The greens are firm and among the fastest on the PGA Tour's regular rotation. Water is abundant, making bogey avoidance among my key stats for the week.

Key stats

Here are the key stats for this week, along with the 2026 PGA Tour leader:

* Not in field

🧮 Arnold Palmer Invitational bankroll management

Properly managing your bankroll is the most crucial aspect of sports betting, regardless of the sport or your preferred bet types. Our betting calculators can help you decide how much to commit to each wager, and we advise tracking your deposits, withdrawals, and bets.

Here is my split for my Arnold Palmer Invitational card. I'm leaning heavier into plus-money props and investing less in the outright market in Signature Events.